South Korea officially became the 24th member of the Development Assistance Committee, a club of major donors in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, in 2010. The event has attracted national attention to the Official Development Assistance (ODA) budget. In particular, many people have become interested in the budget change since then. Given increasing concerns about ODA, it is necessary to study its budget.
In light of this recent interest, the purpose of this study is to research the budget change focusing on pattern analysis for a deeper understanding about ODA budget and policy. In addition, since the 'punctuated equilibrium theory' is applied to find patterns of the budget change, this study also has an important purpose related to budget theory development in terms of budget study.
To conduct the pattern analysis, the ODA budgets in OECD/DAC countries are divided into three types - the bilateral grant ODA budget, bilateral non-grant ODA budget, and the multilateral ODA budget - during the last fifty-year period. Each type of ODA budget is tested by statistical methods after operationalizing the concept of 'punctuation' and 'equilibrium'.
The result suggests that three different patterns according to ODA budget types have been formed in not only all OECD/DAC countries, but also country-by-country. In the case of the bilateral grant ODA budget, it has been the pattern of punctuated equilibrium that shows continuous equilibrium after intermittent punctuated change. Unlike this pattern, the bilateral non-grant ODA budget has been changed to the continuous punctuated pattern. The multilateral ODA budget also has a different pattern that shows continuous equilibrium.
The different patterns, among the ODA budgets of the three types, can be explained by the factors that produce punctuated change. In particular, the factors like international and domestic institutional structures play an important role in this explanation, since they systematically bring about periods of relative stability, and simultaneously these periods of stability may be linked by periods of rapid change during which the institutional framework is challenged. Thus, each type of ODA budget has a different possibility for non-incremental budget change in the relevant institutions related to the ODA budget. Actually, according to research, the bilateral ODA budget has more possibility for punctuated change than the multilateral ODA budget, and the bilateral non-grant ODA budget has a higher possibility for punctuated change than the bilateral grant ODA in regards to institutional factors.
These results provide useful information and implications for the budget and ODA policy implementation. The application of new budget theory - the theory of punctuated equilibrium - suggests more developmental theoretical discussions and alternatives such as the continuous punctuated pattern that has not been considered in budget theory. On the other hand, the different patterns according to ODA types provide more detailed understanding about the policies and the budget decision or implementation.