As a region located in middle and west part of Korea, Chungcheongnamdo has developed focusing on regions close to metropolitan area by regulation policy like Capital area arrangement plan law. Chungcheongnamdo is expected to grow further thanks to well equipped development conditions such as move of its provincial office, designation of Sejong metropolitan autonomous city which is an administrative capital of Korea etc. Accordingly, Chungcheongnamdo was designated as analysis area for the thesis. The scope and object were number of workers in manufacturing industry from 1999 to 2011. In order to systematically analyze economic growth factor and economic characteristics of the region, Shift-share analysis was conducted. For securing stability of data, comparative analysis was carried out by year period, for example, between 2000-2011 and 1999-2010 etc. As a result, it could be known that if criterium year and compared year is different by even one year, the result was very different.
Accordingly, to improve instability of regional data, Linear regression analysis was done based on time series data from 1999 to 2011. And Shift-share analysis of 1999-2011 with estimated value was conducted.And in order to forecast number of workers in manufacturing industry of Chungcheongnamdo in 2020, shift-share forecast model was used for the estimation. As the result, estimated number of workers by shift-share showed cases where number of workers has 『-』value because industry with minus growth continuously decreased by identical equation. There was an industry with remarkable reduction in forecasted number of workers compared to existing number of workers. This was a method with lack of reality which was not proper as a forecasting method.
To supplement this problem, formularized quadratic programming based on information theory was used to forecast number of workers in 2020. In method by quadratic programming, number of workers in 2020 was forecasted by growth rate using past trend value. But value based on growth rate shows difference between total value and sum of each field. So, number of workers in 2020 for manufacturing industry of Chungcheongnamdo was forecasted by reconciling sum of estimated number of workers each field and estimated value of whole number of workers with prerequisite that whole is stable than part in change.