Title Page
ABSTRACT
Contents
LIST OF ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS 12
I. INTRODUCTION 15
A. MAJOR RESEARCH QUESTION 15
B. IMPORTANCE 16
C. PROBLEMS AND HYPOTHESES 16
D. LITERATURE REVIEW 17
1. Victor D. Cha and David C. Kang's Study on North Korea's Nuclear Issue 17
2. Young Whan Kihl's Study on North Korea's Survival Strategy 18
3. Yong-pil Lee's Study on the Decisive Factors of Policy Making in a Crisis 19
4. Alexander L. George's Study on the Types of Crisis Management Strategy 20
E. METHODS AND SOURCES 23
F. THESIS OVERVIEW 23
II. CLASSIFICATION OF THE TYPES OF PROVOCATIONS 25
III. PERIOD OF TRIGGERING WAR: AFTER WAR TO 1960s 33
A. MILITARY STRENGTH 33
B. RELATIONS WITH CHINA AND THE SOVIET UNION 36
C. REGIME STABILITY 39
D. ECONOMIC POWER 42
E. CORRELATION WITH THE TYPE OF PROVOCATION 44
IV. PERIOD OF COMMITTING TERROR: 1970S TO MID-1990S 49
A. MILITARY STRENGTH 50
B. RELATIONS WITH CHINA AND THE SOVIET UNION 54
C. REGIME STABILITY 57
D. ECONOMIC POWER 59
E. CORRELATION WITH THE TYPE OF PROVOCATION 62
V. PERIOD OF PROVOKING MARITIME CONFLICT: MID-1990s TO PRESENT 65
A. MILITARY STRENGTH 65
B. RELATIONS WITH CHINA AND RUSSIA 70
C. REGIME STABILITY 72
D. ECONOMIC POWER 74
E. CORRELATION WITH THE TYPE OF PROVOCATION 76
VI. CONCLUSION 81
LIST OF REFERENCES 85
INITIAL DISTRIBUTION LIST 89
Table 1. Offensive and Defensive Crisis Management Strategies 22
Table 2. General Status of Provocations (1954-November 2010) 27
Table 3. Major Provocations Against South Korea 30
Table 4. Periodic Division of Provocations 32
Table 5. Comparison of the Military Strength of the Two Koreas (1953-1969) 35
Table 6. Comparison of GNP Per Capita of the Two Koreas (1953-1964) 44
Table 7. Comparison of Military Strength of the Two Koreas (1970-1992) 51
Table 8. Changing Trend of North Korean Major Troops (1976-1993) 53
Table 9. Changing Trend of North Korea's Trade Volume (1980-1986) 61
Table 10. North Korea's Missile Development Process 67
Table 11. North Korea's Long-Range Missile Stockpiles 68
Table 12. Quantitative Changes of North Korean Conventional Forces 69
Table 13. North Korean Defectors (1998-2011) 73
Table 14. Comparison of GNI of the Two Koreas (1996-2010) 75
Table 15. North Korea's Economic Growth Rate (1996-2010) 75
Figure 1. Correlation between Decisive Factors and Provocation Type (after War to 1960s) 47
Figure 2. Correlation between Decisive Factors and Provocation Type (1970s to Mid-1990s) 64
Figure 3. Correlation between Decisive Factors and Provocation Type (Mid-1990s to present) 79
Figure 4. Changing Trend of Decisive Factors and Provocation Types 82