Title Page
Contents
Abstract 8
I. Introduction 11
1. Purpose of Study 11
2. Methods and Organization 13
II. Theoretical Background 16
1. Concepts 16
2. Types and Instrument s of Coercive Diplomacy 19
A. Types of Coercive Diplomacy 19
B. Instruments of Coercive Diplomacy 23
3. Requirements for Success 26
4. Analytic Framework 30
III. Case Studies 36
1. The First North Korea Nuclear Crisis 36
A. Background and Process of Coercive Diplomacy 36
B. Analysis of Coercive Diplomacy 43
2. The Second North Korea Nuclear Crisis 48
A. Background of the Crisis and Progression of Coercive Diplomacy 48
B. Analysis of Coercive Diplomacy 53
3. Coercive Diplomacy after the Second Nuclear Test 57
A. Background of the Second Nuclear Test and Progression of Coercive Diplomacy 57
B. Analysis of Coercive Diplomacy 60
4. Comparisons s and Implications 67
A. Demand 68
B. Threat Capability 72
C. Incentive 77
IV. Strategic Directions 80
1. Constraints 80
2. Strategic Directions 85
A. Weakening Determination to Possess Nuclear Weapons 86
B. Strengthening China's Cooperation on North Korean Nuclear Problem 91
C. Strengthening Cooperation on ROK-US Policy toward North Korea 93
V. Conclusions 96
VI. References 99
VII. 국문초록 108
Table 1. Requirements for Success ful Coercive Diplomacy 29
Table 2. Key Details of the Agreed Framework 42
Table 3. Assessment of Coercive Diplomacy in the First North Korean... 47
Table 4. Key Detail s of the Joint Statement of Principles 51
Table 5. Assessment of Coercive Diplomacy in the Second North Korean... 56
Table 6. Comparison of Major Sanctions against North Korea 62
Table 7. North Korea's Total Trade Volume by Year 64
Table 8. ROK-US Military Demonstrations against Recent North Korean... 65
Table 9. Comprehensive Assessment of Coercive Diplomacy against... 66
Table 10. Comprehensive Assessment of Coercive Diplomacy against... 68
Table 11. Comparison of Key Incentives 77
Figure 1. Conceptual Framework of Peter Jakobsen 17
Figure 2. Analytic Framework 35