표제지
목차
List of Terms and Abbreviations 7
Abstract 8
제1장 서론 10
1.1. 연구 배경 및 목적 10
1.2. 연구의 방법 13
1.3. 연구의 구성 15
제2장 해양사고 분석 방법 연구 16
2.1. 트리 분석 방법 16
2.1.1. FTA(Fault Tree Anlaysis) 16
2.1.2. VTA(Variation Tree Anlaysis) 20
2.1.3. ETA(Event Tree Analysis) 22
2.2. 베이지안 네트워크 25
제3장 선박 충돌 사고 분석 방법 27
3.1. 기준 데이터 27
3.2. VTA(Variation Tree Analysis) 27
3.3. ETA(Event Tree Analysis) 28
3.4. RCO(Risk Control Option) 32
제4장 베이지안 확률 모델 34
4.1. RIF(Risk Influence Factor) 34
4.2. K2 알고리즘 37
4.3. Entropy 38
4.4. BN 모델 40
4.5. BN 모델 검증 46
제5장 결론 및 향후 연구과제 48
부록 A. 기준 데이터 49
참고문헌 51
Table 2.1. Symbol of FTA 18
Table 2.2. Symbol of VTA 20
Table 3.1. Code list of cognition and decision-making factors 29
Table 3.2. Risk Control Options 33
Table 4.1. Definitions of the RIFs 35
Table 4.2. RIFs from the relevant literature. 36
Table 4.3. Dependencies of the RIFs 43
Table 4.4. Mutual information results 46
Figure 1.1. Flow chart of study 14
Figure 1.2. Location of ship collision accidents 14
Figure 2.1. Procedure of FTA 16
Figure 2.2. Example of FT 17
Figure 2.3. Example of VT 21
Figure 2.4. Procedure of ETA 22
Figure 2.5. Example of accident analysis by ETA 24
Figure 2.6. Directed Acyclic Graphical model 25
Figure 2.7. Simplified Bayesian Network model of ship grounding 26
Figure 3.1. Application of VTA 28
Figure 3.2. Event tree - collision accident (52 cases) 31
Figure 4.1. K2 Algorithm 37
Figure 4.2. Entropy based Bayesian Network 38
Figure 4.3. Efficient Bayesian Network 40
Figure 4.4. Definition of Bayesian network parameters 41
Figure 4.5. The structure of the BN 42
Figure 4.6. The probabilities of the BN 45