Title Page
Abstract
Contents
Chapter 1. Introduction 12
Chapter 2. Literature review 15
2.1. Mathematical model 15
2.2. Simulation model 20
Chapter 3. Methodology 23
3.1. The agent 24
3.2. The environment 25
3.3. The agent behavior 26
3.4. The control measures 28
Chapter 4. Computation Result: Control measures 29
4.1. Validation of the model 29
4.2. First experiment. No control 32
4.3. Second experiment. Social distance 35
4.4. Third experiment. Screening 36
4.5. Fourth experiment. PCR test 37
4.6. Fifth experiment. Selective PCR test and combination control measures 39
Chapter 5. Result for human behavior 41
5.1. First experiment. Super-spreader 41
5.2. Second experiment. Mannerisms 44
Chapter 6. Conclusion 46
Bibliography 48
Appendix A. An Appendix 52
A.1. NetLogo code 53
A.2. MATLAB code 73
초록 81
Table 1. Summary of results (no control) 33
Table 2. Summary of effects of control measures (Seoul) 38
Figure 1. Examples of SIR model (a) Basic model (b) SEIR model (c) MSEIR model (d) Life cycle parameter (death, birth) added to obtain MSEIR model 19
Figure 2. Examples of disease models using ABM (NetLogo library (Wilensky, 1999)) (a) Spread of viruses on computer networks... 20
Figure 3. Symbols of agents of the model (a) Agents in a GP (b) Agents in a CP (c) Special agents... 24
Figure 4. Part of the simulation environment 25
Figure 5. Graph of SIR model and simulation model when R0=3.4 30
Figure 6. Experimental results for no control (with different density of population) 32
Figure 7. Experimental results for social distance (with different density of population) 35
Figure 8. Experimental results for screening (with different density of population) 36
Figure 9. Experimental results for PCR test (with different density of population) 37
Figure 10. Selective PCR test (peak : 0.57, 1,299 ticks) PCR test only for long-term agents 39
Figure 11. Experimental results for screening + vacation rate + PCR test (long-term) 40
Figure 12. The effect of super-spreaders (no control) 42
Figure 13. The effect of control measures (from super-spreader) 43
Figure 14. Real data on the number of infected persons in CP (South Korea) 44
Figure 15. Graph reflecting human mannerism. 45