Title Page
Contents
Chapter 1. Introduction 10
1.1. Research Questions 14
1.2. Research Objectives 14
1.2.1. Specific Objectives 14
Chapter 2. Literature Review 15
2.1. Climate Change in the Peruvian Tropical Andes 15
2.1.1. Agriculture 15
2.1.2. Glaciers 16
2.1.3. Culture 17
2.1.4. El Niño-Southern-Oscillation (ENSO) 18
2.2. Importance of Climate Change Variability 20
2.2.1. Temperature and Precipitation 20
2.2.2. Spatio-Temporal Consideration 21
2.2.3. Climate Service and Projections 21
2.3. Droughts 22
2.3.1. Definition 22
2.3.2. Types and Characteristics 23
2.4. Public Policy Design 24
2.4.1. Definition 24
2.4.2. Public Policy Process 25
2.4.3. Public Policy in Peru 25
2.5. National Adaptation Plan 26
Chapter 3. Methodology 29
3.1. Selection of the Study Area 29
3.2. Data Collection Method and Sources 32
3.3. Data Analysis 35
3.3.1. Precipitation and Temperature 35
3.3.2. Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) 35
3.3.3. Climate Change Adaptation Policy Analysis 36
Chapter 4. Results and Discussions 37
4.2. Precipitation and Temperature Representation per Station 37
4.3. Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) - Temporal 39
4.3.1. Chupaca - Huayao 39
4.3.2. Huancayo - Santa Ana 41
4.3.3. Huancayo - Viques 43
4.3.4. Concepcion - Ingenio 45
4.3.5. Jauja - Jauja 47
4.3.6. Jauja - Ricran 49
4.4. Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) - Spatial 51
4.4.1. SPEI 1 Month 51
4.4.2. SPEI 3 Months 53
4.4.3. SPEI 6 Months 55
4.4.4. SPEI 12 Months 57
4.4.5. SPEI 24 Months 59
4.4.6. SPEI 48 Months 61
4.5. National Adaptation Plan Measures Related to Drought Events 63
4.6. Regional Adaptation Plan Measures Related to Drought Events 65
4.6. Discussions 67
Chapter 5. Conclusions and Recommendations 71
5.1. Conclusions 72
5.2. Recommendations 73
References 74
Appendices 82
APPENDIX N° 01. PERU's OCEANIC NIÑO INDEX 83
APPENDIX N° 02. HUAYAO (PRECIPITATION & TEMPERATURE DATA) 85
APPENDIX N° 03. SANTA ANA (PRECIPITATION & TEMPERATURE DATA) 90
APPENDIX N° 04. VIQUES (PRECIPITATION & TEMPERATURE DATA) 95
APPENDIX N° 05. INGENIO (PRECIPITATION & TEMPERATURE DATA) 99
APPENDIX N° 06. JAUJ A (PRECIPITATION & TEMPERATURE DATA) 103
APPENDIX N° 07. RICRAN (PRECIPITATION & TEMPERATURE DATA) 108
APPENDIX N° 08. HUAYAO (PET, WB, AND SPEI 1, 3, 6, 12, 24, 48 MONTHS' VALUES) 112
APPENDIX N° 09. SANTA ANA (PET, WB, AND SPEI 1, 3, 6, 12, 24, 48 MONTHS' VALUES) 132
APPENDIX N° 10. VIQUES (PET, WB, AND SPEI 1, 3, 6, 12, 24, 48 MONTHS' VALUES) 147
APPENDIX N° 11. INGENIO (PET, WB, AND SPEI 1, 3, 6, 12, 24, 48 MONTHS' VALUES) 161
APPENDIX N° 12. JAUJA (PET, WB, AND SPEI 1, 3, 6, 12, 24, 48 MONTHS' VALUES) 175
APPENDIX N° 13. RICRAN (PET, WB, AND SPEI 1, 3, 6, 12, 24, 48 MONTHS' VALUES) 195
APPENDIX N° 14. STATISTICAL ANALYSIS USING SPSS AMONG SPEI TIME SCALE AND STATIONS (YEARLY) 209
Abstract 212
초록 213
Table 1. Main GhG Global Warming Potential and Global Temperature Potential 11
Table 2. ONI's Value and Category 19
Table 3. El Niño Events Description between 1990 and 2021 19
Tabla 4. La Niña Events Description between 1990 and 2021 20
Table 5. Public Policy Description 25
Table 6. National Adaptation Plan Process - Timeline 26
Table 7. National Adaptation Plan Elaboration Process 27
Table 8. Mantaro Valley surface and population characteristics 29
Table 9. Data set provided by SENAMHI 32
Table 10. Chosen data set and missing percentage 33
Table 11. Distance between Stations 34
Table 12. Drought risk assessment index characteristics 35
Table 13. SPEI's Values and Drought Categories 36
Table 14. Precipitation and Temperature Change per Station 38
Table 15. Drought Severity and Type Representation per Station - Chupaca (Huayao) 40
Table 16. Drought Severity and Type Representation per Station - Huancayo (Santa Ana) 42
Table 17. Drought Severity and Type Representation per Station - Huancayo (Viques) 44
Table 18. Drought Severity and Type Representation per Station - Concepcion (Ingenio) 46
Table 19. Drought Severity and Type Representation per Station - Jauja (Jauja) 48
Table 20. Drought Severity and Type Representation per Station - Jauja (Ricran) 50
Table 21. Drought Severity and Station per SPEI's Time Scale - 1 Month 52
Table 22. Drought Severity and Station per SPEI's Time Scale - 3 Months 54
Table 23. Drought Severity and Station per SPEI's Time Scale - 6 Months 56
Table 24. Drought Severity and Station per SPEI's Time Scale - 12 Months 58
Table 25. Drought Severity and Station per SPEI's Time Scale - 24 Months 60
Table 26. Drought Severity and Station per SPEI's Time Scale - 48 Months 62
Table 27. Water for Agricultural Use Measures given in the Peruvian NAP 63
Table 28. Water for Population Use Measure given in the Peruvian NAP 64
Table 29. Water for Multisectoral Use Measure given in the Peruvian NAP 64
Table 30. Adaptation against Climate Change in the Regional Development Plan to 2050 65
Table 31. Adaptation against Climate Change in the Regional Strategy on Climate Change to 2021 65
Table 32. Implementation Plan of the Regional Strategy on Climate Change 66
Figure 1. Global Monthly Mean CO₂ by June 2022 10
Figure 2. Huaytapallana Glacier and Mantaro Valley 17
Figure 3. ONI Representation between 1990 and 2021 18
Figure 4. Drought types 23
Figure 5. Drought frequency, severity, and duration interaction 24
Figure 6. Public Value Dimensions 25
Figure 7. NAP opportunities and beneficiary agreements 27
Figure 8. Eight Peruvian Natural Regions 30
Figure 9. Mantaro Valley's Political Location Map 30
Figure 10. Mantaro Valley's Hydrology Map 31
Figure 11. Mantaro Valley's Orography Map 31
Figure 12. Mantaro Valley's Land Use Map 32
Figure 13. Statistical R² values and missing data fulfillment sequence 34
Figure 14. Precipitation and Temperature Representation per Station 37
Figure 15. SPEI's Temporal Representation per Station - Chupaca (Huayao) 39
Figure 16. SPEI's Temporal Representation per Station - Huancayo (Santa Ana) 41
Figure 17. SPEI's Temporal Representation per Station - Huancayo (Viques) 43
Figure 18. SPEI's Temporal Representation per Station - Concepcion (Ingenio) 45
Figure 19. SPEI's Temporal Representation per Station - Jauja (Jauja) 47
Figure 20. SPEI's Temporal Representation per Station - Jauja (Ricran) 49
Figure 21. SPEI's Spatial Representation per Time Series - SPEI 1 Month 51
Figure 22. SPEI's Spatial Representation per Time Series - SPEI 3 Months 53
Figure 23. SPEI's Spatial Representation per Time Series - SPEI 6 Months 55
Figure 24. SPEI's Spatial Representation per Time Series - SPEI 12 Months 57
Figure 25. SPEI's Spatial Representation per Time Series - SPEI 24 Months 59
Figure 26. SPEI's Spatial Representation per Time Series - SPEI 48 Months 61