Title Page
Contents
국문요약 8
1. Introduction 16
1.1. Research Background 16
1.2. Literature Review and Purpose of the Study 19
1.3. Research Framework and Method 28
2. Background 31
2.1. Definition of Security Alliance 31
2.2. The Alliance Theory 35
2.2.1. The Balance of Threat 36
2.2.2. The Alliance Security Dilemma 40
2.3. What is the ROK-U.S. Security Alliance? 46
2.3.1. The Republic of Korea 48
3. The Security Alliance Management Model 51
3.1. The Purpose 51
3.2. The Framework 53
3.3. Step 1. Descriptive Analytics 60
3.4. Step 2. Diagnostic Analytics 63
3.5. Step 3. Predictive Analytics 65
A) Quadrant I and II. Strengthening (+) 68
B) Quadrant III and IV. Weakening (-) 68
3.6. Step 4. Prescriptive Analytics 71
4. A Case Study: the ROK-U.S. Security Alliance 73
4.1. The SAMM Results: Descriptive Analytics 74
A. Change in Domestic Politics 74
B. Change in Threat Perception 92
4.2. The SAMM Results: Diagnostic Analytics 105
4.3. The SAMM Results: Predictive Analytics 136
4.4. The SAMM Results: Prescriptive Analytics 144
5. Conclusion 159
5.1. Summary 159
5.2. Recommendation and Future Research 170
6. References 174
〈Table 2-1〉 Responses: Abandonment and Entrapment 43
〈Table 2-2〉 Power-play: Bilateral vs. Multilateral Control 45
〈Table 3-1〉 The Composite Security Dilemma in a Multipolar System 58
〈Table 3-2〉 Criteria and Source References 62
〈Table 3-3〉 SWOT Analysis and Strategies 72
〈Table 4-1〉 ROK-U.S. Presidents Ideological Orientation 75
〈Table 4-2〉 Comparison of Size 93
〈Table 4-3〉 Comparison of GDP 94
〈Table 4-4〉 Comparison of Population 95
〈Table 4-5〉 Conflict Dynamics (Roh-Bush) 109
〈Table 4-6〉 Threat Perception (Roh-Bush) 111
〈Table 4-7〉 Conflict Dynamics (Kim YS-Clinton) 112
〈Table 4-8〉 Threat Perception (Kim YS-Clinton) 114
〈Table 4-9〉 Conflict Dynamics (Kim DJ-Clinton/Bush Jr.) 117
〈Table 4-10〉 Threat Perception (Kim DJ-Clinton) 118
〈Table 4-11〉 Conflict Dynamics (Kim DJ-Bush Jr.) 119
〈Table 4-12〉 Conflict Dynamics (Roh-Bush Jr.) 120
〈Table 4-13〉 Threat Perception (Roh-Bush Jr.) 121
〈Table 4-14〉 Conflict Dynamics (Lee-Obama) 122
〈Table 4-15〉 Threat Perception (Lee-Obama) 124
〈Table 4-16〉 Conflict Dynamics (Park-Obama) 125
〈Table 4-17〉 Threat Perception (Park-Obama) 126
〈Table 4-18〉 Conflict Dynamics (Moon-Trump) 128
〈Table 4-19〉 Threat Perception (Moon-Trump) 129
〈Table 4-20〉 Conflict Dynamics (Yoon-Biden) 130
〈Table 4-21〉 Threat Perception (Yoon-Biden) 135
〈Table 4-22〉 The ROK-U.S. Security Alliance (1988~) 139
〈Table 4-23〉 SWOT Matrix of the ROK-U.S. Alliance (COT-P) 145
〈Figure 1-1〉 The Map of Influence: The U.S. and China 18
〈Figure 1-2〉 Research Framework 29
〈Figure 3-1〉 The Security Alliance Management Model Process 54
〈Figure 3-2〉 Example Comparative Radar Chart 63
〈Figure 3-3〉 The Security Alliance Trends Graph 67
〈Figure 3-4〉 The Security Alliance Trends Graph Explained 69
〈Figure 4-1〉 The ROK Political Leaders' Foreign Policy Orientation 77
〈Figure 4-2〉 North Korea's Ballistic Missiles 98
〈Figure 4-3〉 Active Military Personnel - Top 10 in Asia 99
〈Figure 4-4〉 Defense Budgets: Top 15 in 2021 (USD Billion) 100
〈Figure 4-5〉 Aggressive Rhetorics in KCNA Media (2016 ~ Present) 105
〈Figure 4-6〉 The ROK's Future Relationship with the U.S. 106
〈Figure 4-7〉 The Comparative Radar Chart 135
〈Figure 4-8〉 The Security Alliance Trends (1988~2021) 140
〈Figure 4-9〉 The Security Alliance Trends (2022~) 142
〈Figure 4-10〉 The Mutually Beneficial Zone (Yoon-Biden) 148