Title Page
Contents
국문초록 14
ABSTRACT 17
Ⅰ. Introduction 21
1. Background and Research Objectives 21
1.1. Background 21
1.2. Research Objectives 23
2. Content and Framework 25
2.1. Research Framework 25
2.2. Literature Review 27
Ⅱ. Theoretical Research 33
1. Oriental White Stork 33
1.1. Classification Characteristics and Distribution 33
1.2. Ecological Characteristics 35
2. Climate Change and Climate Change Scenarios 37
2.1. Climate Change 37
2.2. SSP Scenarios 38
3. Prediction Methodology 41
3.1. Species Distribution Model 41
3.2. MaxEnt Model 43
3.3. Ensemble Model 44
4. Protected Area and Management Law 47
4.1. Protected Area 47
4.2. Status of Protected Natural Areas in Korea 49
4.3. Laws and Regulations in Korea 51
4.4. Laws and Regulations in China 54
4.5. Protected Areas within IUCN Category 57
Ⅲ. Methodology 59
1. Research Methods 59
2. Building Inputs 61
2.1. Building Location Datas 61
2.2. Climate Variables 62
2.3. Non-climate Indexes 65
3. Species Distribution Model Setting 73
2.1. MaxEnt Model 73
2.2. Ensemble Model 73
4. Model Accuracy Verification 74
4.1. MaxEnt Model Accuracy Verification 74
4.2. Ensemble Model Accuracy Verification 75
Ⅳ. Analysis and Reflection 77
1. Emergence Point Characteristics Based on Land Cover Classification 77
2. Habitat Predictions in the Baseline(1981-2010) 79
2.1. Evaluating the Importance of Variables 79
2.2. Jackknife Validation in the Baseline(1981-2010) 82
2.3. Evaluating the Model Accuracy in the Baseline(1981-2010) 83
2.4. Potential Habitat Prediction Results in the Baseline(1981-2010) 84
3. Habitat Predictions in the Near-future(SSP2-4.5, 2011-2040) 85
3.1. Evaluating the Importance of Variables 85
3.2. Jackknife Validation in the Near-future(SSP2-4.5, 2011-2040) 88
3.3. Evaluating the Model Accuracy in the Near-future (SSP2-4.5, 2011-2040) 89
3.4. Potential Habitat Prediction Results in the Near-future(SSP2-4.5, 2011-2040) 89
4. Ensemble Model Habitat Predictions 91
4.1. Evaluating Ensemble Model Accuracy 91
4.2. Ensemble Model Potential Habitat Prediction Result in the Baseline(1981-2010) 92
4.3. Ensemble Model Potential Habitat Prediction Result in the Near-future(SSP2-4.5, 2011-2040) 93
5. Habitat Suitability Analysis of Oriental White Stork 95
5.1. Species Distribution Model Analysis Results 95
5.2. Watershed Suitability Analysis Results 97
6. Conserve and Manage of Oriental White Stork Habitat 107
6.1. Conserving Oriental White Stork Habitat by Designating Protected Area 107
6.2. Protected Area Selection 108
6.3. Best Practices and Considerations for Designating Nature Conservation Areas 110
6.4. IUCN Category Apply 113
6.5. Sustainable Use and Management of Protected Areas 115
Ⅴ. Conclusion 123
Ⅵ. Reference 126
[Table Ⅱ-1] Main Characteristics of Oriental White Stork 35
[Table Ⅱ-2] Comparison of SSP and RCP Scenarios 40
[Table Ⅱ-3] Types of Species Distribution Models 42
[Table Ⅱ-4] Specific Characteristics of biomod2 Models 45
[Table Ⅱ-5] Advantages and Disadvantages of MaxEnt Models and Ensemble Models 46
[Table Ⅱ-6] Definition of National and International Protected Areas 48
[Table Ⅱ-7] Designated Natural Environment Protection Areas in Korea 50
[Table Ⅱ-8] Wildlife and Legal Endangered Species Laws in Korea 52
[Table Ⅱ-9] Wildlife Habitat Laws in Korea 53
[Table Ⅱ-10] Wildlife and Legal Endangered Species Laws in China 54
[Table Ⅱ-11] Wildlife Habitat Laws in China 56
[Table Ⅱ-12] Protected Areas by IUCN Category 58
[Table Ⅲ-1] List of Ecological Climate Indicators 63
[Table Ⅲ-2] Representative Vegetation Indexes 66
[Table Ⅲ-3] Land Cover Map Classification Legend(Rough) 69
[Table Ⅲ-4] Land Cover Map Classification Legend(Specified) 70
[Table Ⅲ-5] TPI and TWI 72
[Table Ⅲ-6] List of Non-climate Variables Used in the Model 73
[Table Ⅳ-1] Model Variables Contribution and Significance Analysis in the Baseline(1981-2010) 80
[Table Ⅳ-2] Distribution Model Analysis Results in the Baseline(1981-2010) 85
[Table Ⅳ-3] Model Variables Contribution and Importance Analysis in the Near-future(SSP2-4.5, 2011-2040) 86
[Table Ⅳ-4] Distribution Model Analysis Results in the Near-future(SSP2-4.5, 2011-2040) 91
[Table Ⅳ-5] Evaluating Individual and Ensemble Model 91
[Table Ⅳ-6] Distribution of Ensemble Model Analysis Results in the Baseline(1981-2010) 93
[Table Ⅳ-7] Distribution of Ensemble Model Analysis Results in the Near-future (SSP2-4.5, 2011-2040) 94
[Table Ⅳ-8] Criteria for Designating Protected Areas 108
[Table Ⅳ-9] Characterization by Protected Area 109
[Table Ⅳ-10] Biodiversity Status of Amsadong Ecology-Landscape Conservation Area 111
[Table Ⅳ-11] Key Ecological Status of Dongcheon Estuary Wetlands 112
[Table Ⅳ-12] Biodiversity Status of Sapgyo Lake Watershed Wildlife Protection Area 113
[Table Ⅳ-13] Purpose and Direction of Category IV Control Measures 115
[Figure Ⅰ-1] Framework of Prediction and Management of Oriental White Stork... 25
[Figure Ⅱ-1] Oriental White Stork Distribution Map 34
[Figure Ⅱ-2] SSP Scenarios 39
[Figure Ⅱ-3] Comparison of SSP and RCP Scenarios 40
[Figure Ⅱ-4] Conceptual Diagram of Species Distribution Model 41
[Figure Ⅱ-5] Procedure of biomod2 Ensemble Models 44
[Figure Ⅲ-1] Flowchart of the Study 60
[Figure Ⅲ-2] Oriental White Stork Spawning Locations in the Mangyeonggang River Basin 61
[Figure Ⅲ-3] Environmental Variable Correlation Analysis Result 64
[Figure Ⅲ-4] Jeollabuk-do Land Cover Map 70
[Figure Ⅳ-1] Classification of Land Cover and Oriental White Stork Nesting Sites 01 77
[Figure Ⅳ-2] Classification of Land Cover and Oriental White Stork Nesting Sites 02 78
[Figure Ⅳ-3] Classification of Land Cover and Oriental White Stork Nesting Sites 03 78
[Figure Ⅳ-4] Model Variables Response Curves in the Baseline(1981-2010) 81
[Figure Ⅳ-5] Model Jackknife Validation Results in Baseline(1981-2010) 82
[Figure Ⅳ-6] Model AUC Values in the Baseline(1981-2010) 83
[Figure Ⅳ-7] Predictive Habitat Distribution Model in the Baseline(1981-2010) 84
[Figure Ⅳ-8] Model Variables Response Curves in the Near-future (SSP2-4.5, 2011-2040) 87
[Figure Ⅳ-9] Model Jackknife Validation Results in the Near-future(SSP2-4.5, 2011-2040) 88
[Figure Ⅳ-10] Model AUC Values in the Near-future(SSP2-4.5, 2011-2040) 89
[Figure Ⅳ-11] Predictive Habitat Distribution Model in the Near-future(SSP2-4.5, 2011-2040) 90
[Figure Ⅳ-12] Predictive Habitat Dstribution of Ensemble Model in the Baseline(1981-2010) 92
[Figure Ⅳ-13] Predictive Distribution Habitat of Ensemble Model in the Near-future(SSP2-4.5, 2011-2040) 94
[Figure Ⅳ-14] Species Distribution Model of Oriental White Stork Habitat Suitability 96
[Figure Ⅳ-15] Oriental White Stork Habitat in the Mangyeonggang River Basin in the Baseline(1981-2010) 98
[Figure Ⅳ-16] Oriental White Stork Habitat in the Mangyeonggang River Basin in the Near-future(SSP2-4.5, 2011-2040) 100
[Figure Ⅳ-17] Oriental White Stork Habitat in the Dongjin River Basin in the Baseline(1981-2010) 101
[Figure Ⅳ-18] Oriental White Stork Habitat in the Dongjin River Basin in the Near-future(SSP2-4.5,2011~2040) 103
[Figure Ⅳ-19] Oriental White Stork Habitat in the Geumgang River Basin in the Baseline(1981-2010) 104
[Figure Ⅳ-20] Oriental White Stork Habitat in the Geumgang River Basin in the Near-future(SSP2-4.5, 2011-2040) 106
[Figure Ⅳ-21] Protected Area Management Categories and Scale of Environmental Modification 114
[Figure Ⅳ-21] Guizhou Province's Kuanqwashui National Nature Built Up Edible Mushrooms Under the Forest 121
[Figure Ⅳ-22] Artificial Nests in the Honghe National Nature Reserve 122