Title Page
ABSTRACT
Contents
ABBREVIATION 15
1. INTRODUCTION 16
1.1. Background 16
1.1.1. Infrastructure Development Investment 16
1.1.2. Context of Economic Growth in Peru 18
1.1.3. Infrastructure Development in Peru 19
1.1.4. National Infrastructure Plan (PNIC) of Peru 20
1.2. Research Objectives 23
1.2.1. General Objective 23
1.2.2. Specific Objective 23
1.3. Significance of the Research 24
2. LITERATURE REVIEW 26
2.1. Challenges of Infrastructure in Latin America 26
2.2. The importance of infrastructure provision 27
2.3. National Infrastructure Plans 29
2.4. Project Evaluation Method: Cost Benefit Analysis 31
2.5. Multi-Criteria Decision Methodologies (MCDM) 32
2.5.1. Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) 33
2.5.2. Infrastructure Prioritization Framework (IPF) 35
2.5.3. Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution 38
2.5.4. Elimination and Choice Expressing Reality (ELECTRE) 39
3. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY 40
3.1. Selection of Method of Project Prioritization 40
3.1.1. Infrastructure Prioritization Framework (IPF) method and its Application in Infrastructure Projects 40
3.1.2. Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and its Role in Establishing Relative Importance of Criteria 44
3.1.3. Justification for the Proposed Hybrid Approach 45
3.2. Methodology Approach 46
3.2.1. Step 1: Identification of Strategic Sectors 48
3.2.2. Step 2: Criteria Definition and Construction of Indices 51
3.2.3. Step 3: Weight Criteria Definition 62
4. DATA ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATIONS 68
4.1. Survey Results 68
4.1.1. Project Evaluation Criteria 68
4.1.2. FEI and SEI Variables Weights 81
4.2. Prioritization of Key Projects 100
4.2.1. Transportation Sector 102
4.2.2. Housing and Urban Development Sector 130
4.2.3. Water and Sanitation Sector 140
5. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 150
5.1. Conclusion 150
5.2. Recommendations 152
5.3. Limitations 154
BIBLIOGRAPHY 156
ANNEXES 160
ANNEX 1. Ranking of Transportation Sector Projects 160
ANNEX 2. Ranking of Housing and Urban Planning Projects 163
ANNEX 3. Ranking of Water and Sanitation Projects 163
초록 164
Table 1. Perceptions of Infrastructure Quality 17
Table 2. Short- and Long-Term Infrastructure Gap in Peru. 21
Table 3. Investment Budget by sector (in million soles S/.). 48
Table 4. Prioritized sectors in national infrastructure plans (UK, Australia, Chile, México) and Thesis Proposal. 49
Table 5. Implementation of FEI variables in Panama, Vietnam, and Chile 53
Table 6. Financial - Economic Variables - FEI Index 54
Table 7. Implementation of FEI variables in Panama, Vietnam, and Chile 55
Table 8. Social - Environmental Variables. SEI Index 56
Table 9. Rules for calculating economic-financial variables (FEI) 57
Table 10. Rules for calculating social - environmental variables (SEI) 59
Table 11. Environmental Studies for investment projects in Peru. 61
Table 12. Fundamental Rating Scale. 63
Table 13. Comparison matrix of FEI variables 64
Table 14. Normalized comparison matrix for FEI variables 65
Table 15. Importance of Financial, Economic, Social, and Environmental Criteria in project evaluation in Peru 69
Table 16. Importance (%) of Financial, Economic, Social, and Environmental Criteria 70
Table 17. Weight of Financial, Economic, Social, and Environmental Criteria 72
Table 18. Priority Evaluation of FEI variables 73
Table 19. Priority Evaluation of SEI variables 75
Table 20. External factors may influence in the public projects in Peru 78
Table 21. External factors may influence the public projects in Peru 78
Table 22. FEI and SEI variables 81
Table 23. Pairwise comparation of FEI variables - Transportation Sector 83
Table 24. FEI index Comparation Matrix - Transportation Sector. 84
Table 25. Pairwise comparation of SEI variables - Transportation Sector 86
Table 26. SEI index Comparation Matrix - Transportation Sector. 86
Table 27. Structuring & Weighting: Transportation Sector 87
Table 28. Professional Profile - Housing and Urban Development Sector. 88
Table 29. Pairwise comparation of FEI variables - Housing and Urban Devel. Sector 89
Table 30. FEI index Comparation Matrix - Housing and Urban Develop. Sector. 90
Table 31. Pairwise comparation of SEI variables - Housing and Urban Develop. Sector 92
Table 32. SEI index Comparation Matrix - Housing and Urban Develop. Sector 92
Table 33. Structuring & Weighting: Housing and Urban Develop. Sector 93
Table 34. Pairwise comparation of FEI variables - Water and Sanitation Sector 95
Table 35. FEI index Comparation Matrix - Housing and Urban Develop. Sector. 96
Table 36. Pairwise comparation of SEI variables - Water and Sanitation Sector 98
Table 37. SEI index Comparation Matrix - Water and Sanitation Sector 98
Table 38. Structuring & Weighting: Water and Sanitation Sector 99
Table 39. Hierarchical Weight Structure: Transportation Sector 101
Table 40. Hierarchical Weight Structure: Housing and Urban Development Sector 101
Table 41. Hierarchical Weight Structure: Water and Sanitation Sector 102
Table 42. TPC Score of first 45 projects. Transportation Sector. 104
Table 43. NPV Score of first 45 projects. Transportation Sector 106
Table 44. RSK Score of first 45 projects. Transportation Sector 109
Table 45. SSO Score of first 45 projects. Transportation Sector 112
Table 46. The best 45 FEI Score for the Transportation Sector. 114
Table 47. NB Score of first 20 projects. Transportation Sector 117
Table 48. RP Score of first 40 projects. Transportation Sector. 119
Table 49. SA Score of first 20 projects. Transportation Sector. 121
Table 50. Environmental Studies for investment projects in Peru. 122
Table 51. The best 45 SEI Score for the Transportation Sector. 124
Table 52. Ranked projects in the Transportation Sector 128
Table 53. The best 45 FEI Score for the Housing and Urban Development Sector. 132
Table 54. The best 45 SEI Score for the Housing and Urban Development Sector. 135
Table 55. Ranked projects in the Housing and Urb. Development Sector 138
Table 56. The best 45 FEI Score for the Water and Sanitation Sector. 142
Table 57. The best 45 SEI Score for the Water and Sanitation Sector. 145
Table 58. Ranked projects in the Water and Sanitation Sector 148
Figure 1. Variation of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Peru. 18
Figure 2. Infrastructure Investment in Peru (in USD Billions). 19
Figure 3. Long-term infrastructure gap in Peru (USD billions). 22
Figure 4. Example of a Hierarchy of Criteria/ Objectives 34
Figure 5. Variables IFP method: Financial-Economic (FEI) and... 35
Figure 6. Indices Methodology IPF: 1) Financial-economic index (FEI), 2) Social-Environmental Index (SEI) 40
Figure 7. Standard Normal Distribution - Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF, Φ(Zij)) 42
Figure 8. Cartesian Plane with variables: FEI (X axis) - SEI (Y axis). 43
Figure 9. IFP Methodology Approach Diagram in the Thesis. 47
Figure 10. Identification of Strategic Sectors in Peru. 50
Figure 11. Thesis survey QR code 62
Figure 12. Comparison Rating Scale. 63
Figure 13. Sequence IFP Methodology Approach Diagram. 67
Figure 14. Importance of Financial, Economic, Social, and Environmental Criteria in project evaluation in Peru 69
Figure 15. Comparative of importance between criteria. 70
Figure 16. FEI and SEI weights 72
Figure 17. Priority order of FEI variables 73
Figure 18. Priority order of SEI variables 76
Figure 19. Comparison Rating Scale. 81
Figure 20. Professional Profile - Transportation Sector. 82
Figure 21. Professional Profile - Water and Sanitation Sector. 94
Figure 22. Ranked projects in the transportation sector. FEI Index. 115
Figure 23. Ranked projects in the transportation sector. SEI Index. 125
Figure 24. Prioritization Matrix, Peru. Transportation Sector. 126
Figure 25. Ranked projects in the transportation sector. FEI Index. 133
Figure 26. Ranked projects in the Housing and Urban Development sector. SEI Index. 136
Figure 27. Prioritization Matrix, Peru. Housing and Urb. Develop. Sector. 137
Figure 28. Ranked projects in the Water and Sanitation sector. FEI Index. 143
Figure 29. Ranked projects in the Water and Sanitation sector. SEI Index. 146
Figure 30. Prioritization Matrix, Peru. Water and Sanitation Sector. 147