Title Page
ABSTRACT
Contents
ABBREVIATION 11
1. INTRODUCTION 12
1.1. Background 12
1.2. Research Objectives 15
1.3. Scope 16
1.4. Significance of the Research 18
1.5. Organization of the Thesis 19
2. THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK 21
2.1. Theories of Economic Growth 21
2.2. Relationship between Infrastructure and Growth 22
2.3. Research Gap 26
3. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY 28
3.1. Model description 28
3.1.1. Short-Term: Impact on Production 28
3.1.2. Long Term: Effect on Economic Growth 31
3.2. Issues related to the proposed model 31
3.2.1. Concerning the endogeneity of the model 31
3.2.2. About Infrastructure Indicators 34
3.3. Estimations considered 36
3.4. Procedure Followed 39
3.5. Detected Limitations in the Specifications 43
3.5.1. Regarding the presence of serial correlation 43
3.5.2. Regarding the endogeneity of the dependent variable 44
3.5.3. Regarding the limitations of the dynamic panel data methodology 45
3.6. Custom Specifications 47
3.6.1. Regarding the Models 47
3.6.2. About the infrastructure indicators 49
3.7. Data Validity 51
4. STYLIZED FACTS 56
4.1. Regarding the GDP 56
4.2. Regarding the conditions of public infrastructure 61
5. DATA ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATIONS 78
5.1. Short Term: Model in Levels 78
5.2. Long Term: Model in differences 83
5.2.1. Regarding the proposed specifications. 83
5.2.2. About the "ad-hoc" model 90
5.3. Results obtained 93
5.4. Robustness check 95
6. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 97
6.1. Conclusions 97
6.2. Recommendations 98
6.3. Recommendations for future studies 99
BIBLIOGRAPHY 101
APPENDICES 106
APPENDIX Ⅰ - A 106
APPENDIX Ⅰ - B 130
APPENDIX Ⅰ - C 153
APPENDIX Ⅰ - D 155
APPENDIX Ⅱ - A 182
APPENDIX Ⅱ - B 183
APPENDIX Ⅲ - A 184
APPENDIX Ⅲ - B 185
APPENDIX Ⅲ - C 186
APPENDIX Ⅲ - D 187
APPENDIX Ⅲ - E 188
APPENDIX Ⅲ - F 190
초록 191
Table 1. Regions and regional capitals of Peru 17
Table 2. Estimates used according to the model 36
Table 3. Regional GDP per Capita (thousands of Nuevos Soles) 58
Table 4. Telephone lines per one thousand inhabitants (by region) 62
Table 5. Installed electric power per one thousand inhabitants by region (MW) 67
Table 6. Kilometers of road per square kilometer of surface by region 71
Table 7. Correlation coefficient - Respect to GDP 75
Table 8. Model "in levels" 82
Table 9. Model "in differences" 84
Table 10. Model "in differences" - Dynamic panel data (Arellano - Bond) 88
Table 11. Model "in differences" - Dynamic panel data (Blundell - Bond) 89
Table 12. Model in Differences "Ad hoc" - Dynamic Panel Systems (Blundell - Bond) 92
Figure 1. Public budget allocated to investment expenses by sector 51
Figure 2. Peru: Gross Domestic Product and Average Annual Growth Rate 1950-2021 (Values at constant 2007 prices) 56
Figure 3. Peru - Gross Domestic Product per capita and Average Annual Growth Rate per capita 1950-2021 (Values at constant 2007 prices) 57
Figure 4. Regional GDP per Capita (Year 2001, 2011 and 2021) 59
Figure 5. Regional GDP per Capita (2001, 2011 and 2021) vs Average Growth Rate (2001-2021) 60
Figure 6. Map of Peru - Regions by GDP per capita level (Year 2001 and 2021) 60
Figure 7. Infrastructure gap (millions of Nuevos Soles) 61
Figure 8. Telephone lines per one thousand inhabitants by groups of departments with similar poverty levels (*) 65
Figure 9. Telephone lines per one thousand inhabitants by region 66
Figure 10. Map of Peru - Regions by telephone lines per one thousand inhabitants (Year 2001 and 2021) 66
Figure 11. Installed electric power per one thousand inhabitants by region (MW) 68
Figure 12. Installed electric power (MW) per one thousand inhabitants by groups of departments with similar poverty levels 69
Figure 13. Installed electric power (MW) per one thousand inhabitants by region 70
Figure 14. Map of Peru - Regions by installed electric power (MW) per one thousand inhabitants (Year 2001 and 2021) 70
Figure 15. Kilometers of road per square kilometer of surface by groups of departments with similar poverty levels 73
Figure 16. Kilometers of road per square kilometer of surface by region 74
Figure 17. Map of Peru - Regions by kilometers of road per square kilometer of surface (Year 2001 and 2021) 74