Contents
Bayesian model and electricity consumption : a two-stage approach to coincident and leading indicators / 차경수 1
Abstract 1
I. Introduction 2
II. The Proposed Model 5
1. Forecasting Electricity Consumption 5
2. Inferences on the Dynamic Latent Common Factor 7
III. Application to the Korean Economy 10
IV. Empirical Results 12
1. Posterior Distributions and the Common Factor 12
2. Comparison between Coincident Composite Index (CCI) and Bayesian Coincident Index 24
V. Concluding Remarks 28
References 30
초록 33