This study was investigated the relationship between the temperature and the mortality of
aged (≥65 yr) during the winter seasons from 1992 to 2007 in Seoul, Korea by utilizing climate
data and death records. The study also estimated the future risks by employing the projections
of the population in Seoul, Korea and climate change scenario of Korea from 2011 to 2030.
The limitation of this study was the impossibility in the prediction of daily mortality counts.
Therefore, daily death numbers could be predicted based on the future population projection
for Korea and the death records of 2005. The result indicated that risks increased by 0.27%,
0.52%, 0.32% and 0.41% in association with the 1˚C decrease in daily minimum temperature
from the mortality counts of total, respiratory, cardiovascular, and cardiorespiratory in the past
date while 0.31%, 0.42%, 0.59% and 0.66% in the future. Based on the results obtained from this
study, it is concluded that the risk in the future will be higher than the past date although there
is an uncertainty in estimating death counts in the future.