Contents
Ten years after the financial crisis, where is the global economy headed? / Jun H. Goh ; Chung, Cheol-Ho ; Choi, Dong Yong 1
[Title] 1
[Preface] 2
Is the world economy recovering? 3
Is the global financial crisis over? Evaluation of the past decade 3
① Causes and progress of the financial crisis : Massive economic stimulus to barely escape another Great Depression 3
② Current status of the global economy - Financial and real decoupling and persistent G2 imbalance 5
③ Evaluation of the ten years after the financial crisis-Possible recurrence of a crisis due to repeated bubbles and excess debt 6
Ten years after the financial crisis, the global economy will face four major changes : excess debt, sluggish real sectors, the G2 imbalance, and low productivity, and demographic onus, triggering shifts in global finance, the real economy, industry, and trade 9
① First change : Excess debt and financial distress 10
② Second change : New normal of structural low growth 11
③ Third change : Manufacturing margin squeeze and evolving industrial ecosystem 12
④ Fourth change : Neo-protectionism 16
A possibility of the next economic crisis 18
Forecasting three major economic variables : interest rates, the value of the dollar, and oil prices 19
① The end of the ultra-low interest rate era during the past ten years after the financial crisis 19
② The value of the dollar : Strong during interest rate hikes but weak in the mid-to-long term 20
③ Oil prices to be volatile in the short term but be stable in the long term 22
Two challenges sparked by the structural changes of the global economy 24
Risk management and prudential investment to cope with economic slowdown 25
Smart manufacturing and new product mix in preparation for the 4IR 26