본 연구는 서민금융진흥원이 보유한 금융 및 비금융 DB를 이용해서 신용부채관리 컨설팅 이용 여부가 정책서민금융상품 이용자의 상환 가능성에 미치는 영향을 살펴보았다. 구체적으로 근로자햇살론, 햇살론15, 햇살론유스 이용자를 대상으로 신용부채관리 컨설팅 이용 여부에 따른 부채 상환 가능성 차이를 집단 간 대위변제 인원 비율 차이 및 이항 로짓 모형 분석을 통해 살펴보고, 컨설팅의 효과성을 검정하였다. 그 결과 세 상품 이용자 모두 컨설팅 상담자들의 대위변제 발생 가능성이 미상담자보다 상대적으로 더 낮게 나타났다. 또한, 상담 완료자의 미상담자 대비 대위변제 발생 가능성 하락 정도가 상담 중단자에 비하여 더 크고, 전화 상담 경우가 채팅 상담보다 미상담자 대비 대위변제 발생 가능성 하락 정도가 더 큰 것으로 나타났다.

This study focuses on the importance of non-financial services targeting vulnerable financial consumers and examines the difference in debt repayment probability depending on whether or not the credit/debt management consulting provided by the Korea Inclusive Finance Agency (KINFA) to policy microfinance users is used. This was examined through binomial logit model analysis, and the effectiveness of consulting was tested. For this purpose, financial and non-financial data necessary for analysis were extracted using the internal database owned by KINFA. The analysis of the effectiveness of credit/debt management consulting targeted borrowers of Sunshine Loan- Workers, Sunshine Loan - 15, and Sunshine Loan - Youth, which have a high proportion of consulting users. The data extraction point was set at the end of November 2022, and the new loan guarantee application period subject to the study was a total of 21 months from January 1, 2020 to September 30, 2021.

We divided the population into groups of users and non-users of credit/debt management consulting and compared the ratio of people reimbursed by subrogation in the case of Sunshine Loan- Workers, Sunshine Loan - 15, and Sunshine Loan - Youth, respectively. For all three loans, the ratio of subrogation in the group that used consulting was found to be lower compared to the entire population and compared to the entire non-users. In addition, compared to a group of non-consulting users with a similar credit score distribution, the ratio of subrogation in the consulting user group was found to be relatively low too. When comparing counseling channels, it was confirmed that phone counseling was better than chat counseling.

Even when assuming a model for determining the probability of subrogation for each borrower of the three Sunshine Loans and analyzing the effectiveness of credit/debt management consulting non-financial services using a binomial logit model, similar results were confirmed for all three products, showing that the likelihood of subrogation occurring among consulting users was relatively lower. In addition, in the case of borrowers of the Sunshine Loan - Workers and Sunshine Loan - Youth, regardless of whether or not counseling was completed, the possibility of subrogation was lower in both cases than for those who did not receive counseling. The decline in the possibility of subrogation for those who completed counseling compared to those who did not receive counseling was found to be greater than that for those who discontinued counseling. On the other hand, in the case of Sunshine Loan - 15 borrowers, only those who completed counseling had a significantly lower probability of subrogation than those who did not receive counseling. In the case of counseling channels, both phone and chat counseling types showed a lower probability of subrogation than those who did not receive counseling. However, compared to those who did not receive counseling, the decrease in the possibility of subrogation in the case of phone counseling was greater than chat counseling.