표제지
목차
요약 5
Executive Summary 17
Chapter 1. INTRODUCTION 35
Ⅰ. Background 35
Ⅱ. Research Purpose 36
Chapter 2. RESEARCH STRATEGY 38
Ⅰ. Theoretical Backgrounds 38
1. Emerging high risk society 38
2. Uncertainty as a new challenge 39
3. What is an X-event? 41
4. From risk to Resilience 44
Ⅱ. Research Design 49
1. Framework in conducting research 49
2. Research Outline 51
3. Case Selection for Xevents 52
Chapter 3. 6-SHOCKS UNDER KOREAN CONTEXT 53
Ⅰ. Internet Collapse 53
1. Background 53
2. Enabler & Triggers 59
3. Internet Collapse scenarios 62
4. Analysis result 62
5. Policy suggestion for the Internet Collapse 65
Ⅱ. Nuclear Accidents in Northeast Asia 66
1. Background 66
2. Enablers & Triggers 66
3. Northeast Asia nuclear power plants scenarios 71
4. Result Anaylsis 72
5. Policy suggestion for the Internet Collapse 75
Ⅲ. Abrupt energy price change(rise & fall) 76
1. Background 76
2. Enabler & Triggers 78
3. Energy price change Scenario 82
4. Result analysis 82
5. Policy suggestion for Energy price change 85
Ⅳ. Food Crisis in Korea 87
1. Background 87
2. Enabler & Triggers 87
3. Scenarios 91
4. Result analysis 97
5. Policy suggestion for the Food crisis 100
Ⅴ. Pandemic in Korea 101
1. Background 101
2. Enablers & Triggers 102
3. Scenarios 106
4. Result analysis 112
5. Policy suggestion for Pandemic in Korea 115
Ⅵ. Retirement age in 75 years old 116
1. Background 116
2. Enabler & Triggers 117
3. Retirement age in 75 years old scenarios 125
4. Analysis result 125
5. Policy suggestion for Retirement age in 75 years old 128
Chapter 4. PRIORITIZATION OF POLICY ACTIONS 130
1. Policy actions with multi-criteria decision making 130
2. Identification of Policy actions candidates for 6 shocks 132
3/2. Assessment of utility of each action for 6 X-events 137
Chapter 5. CONCLUSION 139
1. Policy actions for Resilience 140
REFERENCE 142
SUMMARY 145
판권기 148
〈Table 1-1〉 Definitions of resilience(traditional approach): "result based" 45
〈Table 1-2〉 Definitions of resilience(recent approach): "process based" 46
〈Table 1-3〉 Key words of Resilience 47
〈Table 3-1〉 On-line market in South Korea 55
〈Table 3-2〉 Number of cybercrimes reported to the Korean Police 57
〈Table 3-3〉 Comparing 5 options 60
〈Table 3-4〉 Analysis of Internet Disruption with Drivers 61
〈Table 3-5〉 Policy suggestion for Internet Collapse Scenario 65
〈Table 3-6〉 Analysis of Northeast Asia nuclear power plants accident with drivers 70
〈Table 3-7〉 Policy suggestion for Nuclear accident Scenario 75
〈Table 3-8〉 Domestic Energy production & imports 77
〈Table 3-9〉 Analysis of Energy price change with drivers 81
〈Table 3-10〉 Policy suggestion for energy price rise scenario 85
〈Table 3-11〉 Policy suggestion for energy price fall scenario 86
〈Table 3-12〉 Analysis of Food crisis with drivers 90
〈Table 3-13〉 Policy suggestion for Food crisis 100
〈Table 3-14〉 Analysis of Pandemic in Korea with drivers 105
〈Table 3-15〉 Policy suggestion for Pandemic scenario 115
〈Table 3-16〉 Life Expectancy at Birth in Korea 118
〈Table 3-17〉 Tempo of Ageing for Countries 122
〈Table 3-18〉 Analysis of Retirement age in 75 years old with Drivers 124
〈Table 3-19〉 Policy suggestion for Retirement age in 75 years old scenario 128
〈Table 4-1〉 Policy alternatives in 6 shocks 132
〈Table 4-2〉 Raw data for RPM of Policy alternatives evaluation survey for STEPI experts(27 people) 134
[그림 1] Setting working groups & Research flow 6
[그림 2] 단계별 연구전략 6
[그림 3] 인과지도: 인터넷 단절 7
[그림 4] 인터넷 단절 파급효과 시나리오 8
[그림 5] 인과지도: 동북아 원전사고 8
[그림 6] 동북아 원전사고의 파급효과 시나리오 9
[그림 7] 인과지도: 에너지 가격의 급변 9
[그림 8] 에너지 가격 급변의 파급효과 시나리오 10
[그림 9] 인과지도: 식량 위기 11
[그림 10] Food crisis Scenario in Korea 11
[그림 11] Causal loop: Pandemic 12
[그림 12] Pandemic scenario in Korea 12
[그림 13] 인과지도: 75세 은퇴시대의 도래 13
[그림 14] 75세 은퇴시대의 도래 파급효과 시나리오 13
[그림 15] RPM 결과: 24개 정책 포트폴리오 도출 14
[Figure 1] Comparison with the different contexts of events 18
[Figure 2] Conceptual difference between resilience and recovery 19
[Figure 3] Team Structure & Work Flow 19
[Figure 4] Research Flow 20
[Figure 5] Causal loop: Internet collapse 21
[Figure 6] Internet Collapse Scenario in Korea 21
[Figure 7] Causal loop:Nuclear Accidents in Northeast Asia 22
[Figure 8] Nuclear accidents scenario in Northeast Asia 22
[Figure 9] Causal loop: Energy price change 23
[Figure 10] Energy price change scenario in Korea 23
[Figure 11] Causal loop: Food crisis 24
[Figure 12] Food crisis Scenario in Korea 24
[Figure 13] Causal loop: Pandemic 25
[Figure 14] Pandemic scenario in Korea 25
[Figure 15] Causal loop: Retirement age in 75 years old 26
[Figure 16] Retirement age in 75 years old Scenario in Korea 26
[Figure 1-1] The 2x2 matrix of beliefs and reality 41
[Figure 1-2] Comparison with the different contexts of events 44
[Figure 1-3] Conceptual difference between resilience and recovery 48
[Figure 1-4] Team Structure & Work Flow 49
[Figure 1-5] Research Flow 51
[Figure 2-1] Internet Penetration Rate(2011) 53
[Figure 3-2] internet usage in Korea 54
[Figure 3-3] Occurrence of computer virus in South Korea 55
[Figure 3-4] Number of cybercrimes reported to the Korean Police 56
[Figure 3-5] Spread of the DDos attacks 58
[Figure 3-6] Impact & Recovery time of each trigger 60
[Figure 3-7] Causal loop: Internet collapse 63
[Figure 3-8] Internet Collapse Scenario in Korea 64
[Figure 3-9] Comparison nuclear R&D investment with National R&D investment 67
[Figure 3-10] Nuclear safety research investment 68
[Figure 3-11] Nuclear power plants in China 69
[Figure 3-12] Causal loop: Nuclear Accidents in Northeast Asia 73
[Figure 3-13] Nuclear accidents scenario in Northeast Asia 74
[Figure 3-14] GDP & Energy consumption in Korea 76
[Figure 3-15] Top ten net oil importers, 2011 77
[Figure 3-16] Israel's option for Iran strike 79
[Figure 3-17] China & US energy consumption increase 79
[Figure 3-18] Causal loop: Energy price change 83
[Figure 3-19] Energy price change scenario in Korea 84
[Figure 3-20] Value of Food Imports by Import Country in 2008 88
[Figure 3-21] Decrease import goods from overseas countries 91
[Figure 3-22] Increase severe drought/repeated flooding by climate change 92
[Figure 3-23] U.S Agricultural Exports to overseas 93
[Figure 3-24] Energy price is going up 94
[Figure 3-25] Increase food demands by urban population 95
[Figure 3-26] Causal loop: Food crisis 98
[Figure 3-27] Food crisis Scenario in Korea 99
[Figure 3-28] Korea exit passenger Data 103
[Figure 3-29] Foreign population in Korea 103
[Figure 3-30] Climate change into subtropical weather 106
[Figure 3-31] Influx of infected people into Korea(quarantine failure) 108
[Figure 3-32] Bio-terrorism by terrorist group 110
[Figure 3-33] Virus leakage from laboratory 111
[Figure 3-34] Causal loop: Pandemic 113
[Figure 3-35] Pandemic scenario in Korea 114
[Figure 3-36] Percentage of old people over 65 in 2050 117
[Figure 3-37] Period Expectation of Life at Birth, Western Europe 1850-2005 118
[Figure 3-38] Probability of Dying by Age in Korea: Male 119
[Figure 3-39] Probability of Dying by Age in Korea: Female 119
[Figure 3-40] Growth of global anti-aging market 120
[Figure 3-41] Total number of children born per one woman 121
[Figure 3-42] Birth rate comparison(2003-2010) 121
[Figure 3-43] Proportion of Population in Broad Age Groups in Korea 122
[Figure 3-44] Causal loop: Retirement age in 75 years old 126
[Figure 3-45] Retirement age in 75 years old Scenario in Korea 127
[Figure 4-1] RPM: Combining activities into portfolios 132
[Figure 4-2] RPM result: Draw 24 policy portfolios 135
[Figure 4-3] RPM result: Share of efficient portfolio that includes policy alternatives 136