영문목차
1. Introduction=3
1.1. Classical and Modern Population Theory=3
1.2. Gaps Between Malthus and Becker=4
1.3. Restrictions of Age-Specific Models=5
1.4. Outline of this Book=6
1.5. Readership Background=9
I. STEADY STATES=13
2. Demographic Models and Branching Processes=13
2.1. Background=13
2.2. Preliminaries=14
2.3. Evolution of the Type Distribution=15
2.4. Projection Matrices and Functions=15
2.5. Steady States of Branching Processes=17
2.6. Verifying Positive Regularity=19
2.7. Meaning of the Dominant Eigenvalue=22
2.8. General Population Models in Previous Literature=23
3. Age-Specific Population Models: Steady States and Comparative Statics=24
3.1. Steady-State Age Distribution=24
3.2. Calculating Variable Means=26
3.3. Welfare Impact of Population Growth: Consumption-Loan Model=27
3.4. Welfare Impact of Population Growth: Neoclassical Growth Model=28
3.5. Welfare Impact of Population Growth: Income Inequality=30
3.6. Extensions and Comments=31
4. Income-Specific Population Models: Steady States and Comparative Dynamics=32
4.1. Background=32
4.2. Household Fertility Decision=33
4.3. Verifying Positive Regularity=35
4.4. Income-Specific Stable Population=37
4.5. Comparative Dynamics of Income Distribution=38
4.6. Comparative Statics of Growth Rate=42
4.7. Empirical Estimation of the Transition Matrix=43
5. Lineage Extinction and Inheritance Patterns=46
5.1. Background=46
5.2. Economic Decisions to Reduce Extinction Probability=47
5.3. Probability of Lineage Extinction=49
5.4. Lineage Preservation Decisions=52
5.5. Some Analytical Examples=54
5.6. Empirical Observations in History=56
6. Sex Preferences and Two-Sex Models=59
6.1. Background=59
6.2. Two-Sex Models=60
6.3. Fertility Decisions and Sex Preferences=64
6.4. Micro Sex Preferences and Macro Sex Ratios=66
6.5. Unequal Resource Division=70
II. CYCLES AND TRANSITIONS=75
7. Cyclical Patterns of Human Population: Summary of Previous Research=75
7.1. Background=75
7.2. Stationary Branching Processes=76
7.3. Time-Variant Branching Processes=77
7.4. Age-Specific Density Dependency=80
7.5. Hopf Bifurcation and Cycles=81
7.6. Predator-Prey Models=85
7.7. Remarks=86
8. Attitude-Specific Population Models: Dynamic Custom Evolution=88
8.1. Background=88
8.2. The Critical-Mass Model=90
8.3. Dynamic Custom Evolution=92
8.4. Trying to Change the Custom=95
8.5. Individual Interactions and Custom Cycles=98
9. Occupation-Specific Population Models: Population and Dynastic Cycles=99
9.1. Background=99
9.2. Occupation Switching and Population Dynamics=102
9.3. Empirical Analysis=106
9.4. Dynamics of Population Composition Under Anarchy=111
9.5. Remarks on Individual Choices and Institutional Changes=114
10. Easterlin Cycles: Fertility and the Labor Market=116
10.1. Background=116
10.2. Theoretical Modeling=119
10.3. Estimation and Statistical Tests=122
10.4. Endogenous Easterlin Cycles=125
10.5. Alternative Explanations of Easterlin Cycles=129
11. Demographic Transition and Economic Development=131
11.1. Background=131
11.2. Demographic Transition and Economic Growth=133
11.3. Demographic Transition and Public Pension=138
11.4. Intergenerational Transfers and Life-Cycle Consumption=141
11.5. Composition Distortion of Inequality Measurement=143
11.6. Demographic Transition and the Savings Rate=146
12. Age-Distribution Dynamics During Demographic Transitions=148
12.1. Background=148
12.2. Comparative Dynamics of Population Aging=149
12.3. Applications of the Density-Pivoting Results=155
12.4. Alternative Aging Indexes=159
12.5. Summary of Results=163
III. POPULATION DYNAMICS IN THE PAST AND IN THE FUTURE=167
13. Population Size and Early Development=167
13.1. Background=167
13.2. Some Stylized Evidence=171
13.3. From Primitive to Market Economy: The Role of Population Size=174
13.4. Infrastructure and the Division of Labor=175
13.5. Population Size and the Division of Labor=177
13.6. Discussion=179
14. Population Dynamics in the Very Long Run=181
14.1. Background=182
14.2. Nerlove's Model=182
14.3. Ecology, Ethnology, and Economic Activities=186
14.4. Toward a Mathematical Formulation=190
15. Epilogue=195
Notes=199
References=205
Index=221