영문목차
Acknowledgments=ix
Introduction=xi
Chapter 1: Why Project Risk Management?=1
The Doomed Project=1
Risk=2
Benefits and Uses of Risk Data=8
The Risk Management Process=10
Anatomy of a Failed Project: The First Panama Canal Project=12
Chapter 2: Planning for Risk Management=17
Project Selection=18
Overall Project Planning Processes=20
Defining Risk Management for the Project=29
The PERIL Database=31
Key Ideas for Project Risk Planning=35
A Second Panama Canal Project: Sponsorship and Initiation (1902-1904)=35
Chapter 3: Identifying Project Scope Risk=37
Sources of Scope Risk=38
Defining Deliverables=41
High-Level Risk Assessment Tools=48
Setting Limits=53
Work Breakdown Structure (WBS)=55
Other Risks=61
Document the Risks=64
Key Ideas for Identifying Scope Risks=65
Panama Canal: Setting the Objective (1905-1906)=65
Chapter 4: Identifying Project Schedule Risk=68
Sources of Schedule Risk=69
Activity Definition=73
Estimating Activity Duration=74
Activity Sequencing=93
Document the Risks=101
Key Ideas for Identifying Schedule Risks=102
Panama Canal: Planning (1905-1907)=102
Chapter 5: Identifying Project Resource Risk=104
Sources of Resource Risk=105
Resource Planning=109
Staff Acquisition=114
Procurement Planning and Source Selection=119
Cost Estimating=127
Cost Budgeting=129
Document the Risks=129
Key Ideas for Identifying Resource Risks=130
Panama Canal: Resources (1905-1907)=130
Chapter 6: Managing Project Constraints and Documenting Risks=132
Analyze Constraints=133
Scope Options and Opportunity Management=138
Resource Options=143
Schedule Options=145
Assess Options and Update Plans=150
Seek Missing Risks=151
Key Ideas for Constraint Management and Risk Discovery=156
Document the Risks=156
Panama Canal: Improving the Plan (1906)=156
Chapter 7: Quantifying and Analyzing Activity Risks=158
Quantitative and Qualitative Risk Analysis=159
Risk Probability=160
Risk Impact=161
Qualitative Risk Analysis=164
Quantitative Risk Assessment=169
Key Ideas for Activity Risk Analysis=179
Panama Canal: Risks (1906-1914)=179
Chapter 8: Managing Activity Risks=182
Root Cause Analysis=183
Categories of Risk=184
Risk Response Planning=186
Managing a Specific Risk=213
Key Ideas for Managing Activity Risks=217
Panama Canal: Risk Plans (1906-1914)=218
Chapter 9: Quantifying and Analyzing Project Risk=221
Project-Level Risk=222
Aggregating Risk Responses=224
Questionnaires and Surveys=225
Instructions for the Project Risk Questionnaire=226
Project Simulation and Modeling=233
Analysis of Scale=248
Project Appraisal=249
Project Metrics=251
Key Ideas for Project Risk Analysis=262
Panama Canal: Overall Risks (1907)=262
Chapter 10: Managing Project Risk=264
Project Documentation Requirements=265
Project Start-Up=267
Selecting and Implementing Project Metrics=271
Management Reserve=273
Project Baseline Negotiation=278
Project Plan Validation=282
Specification Change Management=282
Key Ideas for Managing Project Risk=288
Panama Canal: Adjusting the Objective (1907)=288
Chapter 11: Monitoring and Controlling Risky Projects=290
Applying the Plan=291
Project Monitoring=292
Collecting Project Status=295
Metrics and Trend Analysis=297
Responding to Issues=302
Communication=303
Project Archives=311
Project Reviews and Risk Reassessment=312
Key Ideas for Risk Monitoring and Control=317
Panama Canal: Risk-Based Replanning (1908)=317
Chapter 12: Closing Projects=320
Project Closure=321
Project Retrospective Analysis=323
Key Ideas for Project Closure=329
Panama Canal: Completion (1914)=329
Chapter 13: Conclusion=331
Panama Canal: The Next Project=335
Appendix: Selected Detail from the PERIL Database=337
Selected Bibliography=345
Index=349