Title Page
Contents
The Authors 8
Glossary 9
Summary 11
1. Introduction 23
1.1. Background to NDLP, LPWFI and tax credits 24
1.1.1. NDLP 24
1.1.2. LPWFI 25
1.1.3. Working Families' Tax Credit 25
1.2. Background to evaluations of NDLP and tax credits 28
2. Issues in reconcilingNDLP and LPWFI impactassessments 29
2.1. Introduction 30
2.2. Focus and method of analysis 31
2.2.1. Principal research methods 33
2.3. The scope of evidence presented in the evaluations 35
2.3.1. Impact indicators 35
2.3.2. Sub-group analyses 36
2.4. Study-specific factors affecting comparability acrossevaluations 36
2.5. External factors affecting comparability acrossevaluations 38
2.5.1. Jobcentre Plus 38
2.5.2. Different profiles of lone parents 39
2.5.3. Changing economic climate and the policy environment 42
2.5.4. vol.ntary compared to mandatory programmes 43
2.6. Improving comparability across evaluations 44
3. Issues in reconcilingtax credit studies 45
3.1. Methodological approaches and comparability withNDLP/LPWFI evaluations 45
3.2. Data sources and the periods covered 47
3.3. Assumptions on the influence of NDLP and ofeconomic changes 47
3.4. Impact indicators and their definition 48
4. Findings from policyevaluations: impactestimates 51
4.1. Introduction 53
4.2. NDLP and LPWFI impact estimates 53
4.2.1. NDLP 53
4.2.2. LPWFI introduction and LPWFI extensions 58
4.2.3. Adjusting NDLP impact estimates and exploringincremental NDLP/LPWFI impacts 63
4.2.4. Review Meetings 65
4.2.5. Referrals and self-referrals to NDLP 69
4.2.6. Referrals and self-referrals from LPWFI and LPWFIextensions 70
4.2.7. Sub-group estimates 75
4.3. Grossed-up employment and benefit exit estimates 80
4.4. Tax credit impact estimates 84
4.4.1. Additionality rates 86
4.4.2. WFTC impact on WFTC-eligible employment 86
4.4.3. Variations in impacts by lone parent sub-group 88
5. Conclusions 89
5.1. Summary 89
5.1.1. NDLP and LPWFI 89
5.1.2. Working Families' Tax Credit 91
5.2. Preferred estimates 91
5.3. How much did policy contribute to greater labourmarket participation among lone parents? 94
5.4. Note on information gaps and comparability ofevidence 95
References 99
Table 1. NDLP and LPWFI impacts on benefit exit – lone parents on IS 20
Table 1.1. Enhancements to NDLP 27
Table 2.1. LPWFI-eligible lone parent populations and samples 39
Table 2.2. Lone parent characteristics – evaluation samples(column percentages) 41
Table 3.1. WFTC evaluations included in this review 46
Table 4.1. NDLP impacts on benefit exit – all lone parents (on IS) 54
Table 4.2. NDLP impacts on employment and employment entry ?all lone parents (on IS) 57
Table 4.3. LPWFI-eligible and comparison groups, by LPWFI phase 59
Table 4.4. LPWFI impacts on benefit exit – all lone parents (on IS) 62
Table 4.5. Combined and incremental NDLP and LPWFI treatment impacts on benefit receipt (percentage points) 65
Table 4.6. Combined initial LPWFI and review meeting impacts on benefit exit – all lone parents (on IS) 68
Table 4.7. NDLP participation and referral rates ?lone parents, by age of youngest child (percentages) 70
Table 4.8. LPWFI and NDLP participation, referral and self-referral rates 73
Table 4.8. Continued 74
Table 4.9. NDLP impacts on benefit exits – lone parent sub-groups 76
Table 4.10a. NDLP impacts on employment entry, lone parent sub-groups, six months after participation 78
Table 4.10b. NDLP impacts on employment entry, lone parent sub-groups 79
Table 4.11. Grossed-up IS exit population – combined, stock and flow claimants (cumulative percentages/percentage points) 82
Table 4.12. Estimates of the impacts of WFTC on lone parent employment and employment rates (all employment) 84
Table 4.13. WFTC employment impact estimates (16 or more hours per week) 87
Table 5.1. NDLP and LPWFI impacts on benefit exit – all lone parents (on IS) 93
Table 5.2. NDLP impacts on employment and employment entry – all lone parents (on IS) 94
Figure 2.1. LPWFI-eligible lone parent groups, by age of youngest child, covered by policy evaluations 32
Figure 2.2. Employment rates for lone parents and partner mothers, 1997-2006 43
Figure 4.1. Outcomes of NDLP/LPWFI alternatives 64