Title
Contents
Acknowledgements 6
The Authors 7
Abbreviations 8
Summary 10
1. Introduction 14
1.1 The policy background 14
1.2 The Pathways programme 15
1.3 The evaluation of Pathways 16
1.4 Report outline 18
2. Data 19
2.1 Overview of data used 19
2.2 The survey data 19
2.3 The administrative data 20
2.3.1 National Benefits Database 20
2.3.2 Pathways evaluation database 21
3. Description of the pilot population and the Pathways experience 22
3.1 Regional distribution 22
3.2 Personal characteristics 23
3.3 A description of the outcomes 25
3.3.1 Monthly employment status 25
3.3.2 Monthly benefit status 28
3.3.3 Monthly earnings 29
3.3.4 Health 30
3.4 Details of the Pathways experience 31
4. Methodology 35
4.1 Difference-in-Differences 35
4.2 Duration analysis 37
5. Results 41
5.1 The effect of Pathways on employment entry 41
5.2 The effect of Pathways on Incapacity Benefit exit 47
5.3 The effect on existing claimants of introducing Pathways for new claimants 49
5.3.1 October 2003 areas 49
5.3.2 April 2004 areas 51
5.3.3 A comment on the DiD estimates 51
6. Subgroup analysis 53
6.1 Effects of Pathways by date of pilot 53
6.2 Effects of Pathways, by sex 57
6.3 Effects of Pathways, by age 60
6.4 Effects of Pathways, by presence of dependent children 63
6.5 Effects of Pathways, by nature of health problem 66
7. Discussion and conclusion 69
References 72
Table 3.1 Distribution of pilot population post-intervention by district 23
Table 3.2 Personal characteristics of the pilot area population post-intervention 24
Table 3.3 Type of mental health problem amongst the pilot population recorded as having a mental or behavioural disorder 25
Table 3.4 Monthly take-home pay 30
Table 3.5 Self-reported health condition 31
Figure 3.1 Employment status over time 27
Figure 3.2 Number of hours worked, for those in work 28
Figure 3.3 Benefit status by month since 7 February 2005 29
Figure 3.4 Details of the respondent sample 32
Figure 3.5 Proportion having WFI, by month 33
Figure 3.6 Proportion entering NDDP and CMP, by month 34
Figure 5.1 The effect of Pathways on employment entry 43
Figure 5.2 The effect of Pathways on 30+ hours employment entry 45
Figure 5.3 The effect of Pathways on 16+ hours employment entry 46
Figure 5.4 The effect of Pathways on IB exit 48
Figure 5.5 Impact of Pathways for new and repeat claimants on one to two year existing claimants, October 2003 areas 50
Figure 5.6 Impact of Pathways for new and repeat claimants on one to two year existing claimants, April 2004 areas 51
Figure 6.1 Effect of Pathways on employment entry, by area 55
Figure 6.2 Effect of Pathways on IB exit, by area 56
Figure 6.3 Effect of Pathways on employment entry, by sex 58
Figure 6.4 Effect of Pathways on IB exit, by sex 59
Figure 6.5 Effect of Pathways on employment entry, by age 61
Figure 6.6 Effect of Pathways on IB exit, by age 62
Figure 6.7 Effect of Pathways on employment entry, by dependent children 64
Figure 6.8 Effect of Pathways on IB exit, by dependent children 65
Figure 6.9 Effect of Pathways on employment entry, by health problem 67
Figure 6.10 Effect of Pathways on IB exit, by health problem 68