Title Page
Copyright
Contents
Acknowledgements 7
The Authors 8
Abbreviations and acronyms 9
Summary 10
1. Introduction 14
1.1. Policy background 14
1.2. The Pathways programme 14
1.3. The roll-out of Pathways 16
1.4. The Pathways evaluation 17
1.4.1. Summary of earlier findings 18
1.4.2. The current report 19
1.5. Report outline 20
2. Data 22
2.1. Overview of data used 22
2.2. Sample frame and sample identification 23
2.3. Timing of sampling and survey 23
2.4. The representativeness of survey respondents 25
2.5. Key variables 28
3. Incapacity benefits customers in the April 2006 areas-characteristics and outcomes 30
3.1. Introduction 30
3.2. Work outcomes 30
3.3. Earnings outcomes 31
3.4. Self-reported health 32
3.5. Summary 32
4. Methods 34
4.1. The evaluation problem 34
4.2. The difference-in-differences methodology 35
4.3. Plausibility of the DiD assumptions 37
4.4. Testing the common trends assumption 38
4.5. Implications for the analysis 40
5. Results 42
5.1. Introduction 43
5.2. The impact of Pathways on work outcomes 43
5.3. The impact of Pathways on earnings 44
5.4. The impact of Pathways on self-reported health 44
5.5. Comparing the impact of Pathways on outcomes in the pilot and April 2006 areas 45
5.6. Discussion 46
5.6.1. The sampling frames 46
5.6.2. The timing of the outcome interviews 47
5.6.3. Delivery differences in the pilot and April 2006 areas 47
5.6.4. Differences in the characteristics of incapacity benefits customers in the pilot and April 2006 areas 47
5.6.5. Labour market conditions 48
6. Subgroup analysis 50
6.1. Introduction 50
6.2. The impact of Pathways by gender 52
6.3. The impact of Pathways by age 53
6.4. The impact of Pathways by the type of health condition 54
6.5. The impact of Pathways by the presence of dependent children 55
6.6. Summary 56
7. Conclusions 58
Appendix Characteristics of customers starting a claim for incapacity benefits after Pathways was introduced locally 62
References 66
Table 2.1. Length of time between qualifying claim and survey interview 25
Table 2.2. The characteristics of survey respondents and the population of incapacity benefits customers 26
Table 3.1. Working status at interview 31
Table 3.2. Average net monthly earnings of those in work at interview 31
Table 3.3. Self-reported health at interview 32
Table 4.1. An illustration of the DiD estimator 35
Table 5.1. Estimate of the impact of Pathways on work outcomes at time of interview 44
Table 5.2. Estimate of the impact of Pathways on net monthly earnings at time of interview 44
Table 5.3. Estimate of the impact of Pathways on self-reported health at time of interview 45
Table 6.1. Estimate of the impact of Pathways on outcomes at time of interview, by gender 52
Table 6.2. Estimate of the impact of Pathways on outcomes at time of interview, by age 53
Table 6.3. Estimate of the impact of Pathways on outcomes at time of interview, by mental health 54
Table 6.4. Estimate of the impact of Pathways on outcomes at time of interview, by presence of dependent children 55
Table A.1. Distribution of claims for incapacity benefits across Jobcentre Plus districts - April 2006 areas 63
Table A.2. Personal characteristics of the post-intervention cohort 64
Figure 4.1. Timing of the start of the claim for each cohort 38
Figure 4.2. Tests of the common trends assumption in the April 2006 areas one year before the introduction of Pathways 39