영문목차
Preface=iii
Figures=vii
Tables=ix
Summary=xi
Acknowledgments=xxvii
Abbreviations=xxix
CHAPTER ONE Introduction=1
Purpose=3
Methodology and Organization=4
Policy Recommendations=9
CHAPTER TWO Household-Level Conditions and Dynamics=11
Risk and Uncertainty=12
Shifting Cultivation Patterns=17
Landholdings, Household Size, and Observed Land Allocations=25
Concluding Remarks=36
CHAPTER THREE Effects of Socio-Economic and Other Environmental Conditions on Opium Poppy Production=39
The Factor Map and Glossary=45
Factor-by-Factor Evidence=51
Concluding Remarks=84
CHAPTER FOUR Rural Development Programs in Afghanistan=85
Sources of Income=87
Program Selection=89
1. Agricultural Development Program―Southern Region (ADP South)=92
2. Afghanistan Vouchers for Increased Production in Agriculture (AVIPA)=107
3. Afghanistan Vouchers for Increased Production in Agriculture-Plus (AVIPA-Plus)=116
4. Helmand Agriculture and Rural Development Program (HARDP)=129
5. Incentives Driving Economic Alternatives for the North, East, and West (IDEA-NEW)=138
6. Comprehensive Agriculture and Rural Development Facility (CARD-F)=152
7. Commercial Horticulture and Agricultural Marketing Program (CHAMP)=158
CHAPTER FIVE Programs with Crop-Eradication Features=167
Governor-Led Eradication=168
Good Performers Initiative=175
Helmand Food Zone Program=181
CHAPTER SIX Policy and Programmatic Guidance=197
Rural Development Programs=198
Other Programs=212
Recommendations for INL=214
APPENDIXES (available online at www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR1075.html)
A. Tables Concerning Chronology of Factors Affecting Opium Poppy Cultivation
B. Crop Budgets and Documentation
C. A Household Model of Opium Poppy Production in Afghanistan
D. Annotated List of Programs
E. Other Less-Developed Countries' Experiences with Counternarcotics and Related Programs
Bibliography=221
2.1. Growth of Opium Poppy Cultivation in Former Desert Areas of Southwest Afghanistan=20
2.2. Distribution of Farms and Arable Land, by Farm Size, 2002-2003=27
2.3. Farm Size and Household Size, 2002-2003=31
3.1. Factor Map Glossary=47
3.2. Opium Poppy Cultivation and Distance to Nearest Market=65
3.3. Coping Strategies of Farmers Ceasing to Cultivate Opium Poppy=72
4.1. Implications for Growing Opium Poppy of Factors Affected by ADP South=100
4.2. Opium Poppy Cultivation and Opium Production, by Provinces Participating in ADP South=108
4.3. Implications for Growing Opium Poppy of Factors Affected by AVIPA=112
4.4. Net Hectares of Opium Poppies Cultivated by Provinces Participating in AVIPA=114
4.5. Implications for Growing Opium Poppy of Factors Affected by AVIPA-Plus=125
4.6. Implications for Growing Opium Poppy of Factors Affected by HARDP=135
4.7. Implications for Growing Opium Poppy of Factors Affected by IDEA-NEW=146
4.8. Implications for Growing Opium Poppy of Factors Affected by CARD-F=157
4.9. Implications for Growing Opium Poppy of Factors Affected by CHAMP=165
5.1. Implications for Growing Opium Poppy of Factors Affected by Governor-Led Eradication=172
5.2. Implications for Growing Opium Poppy of Factors Affected by the Good Performers Initiative=177
5.3. Hectares of Opium Poppy Eradicated and Cultivated in Helmand Province=188
5.4. Implications for Growing Opium Poppy of Factors Affected by the Helmand Food Zone Program=189
6.1. Programs and Implications for Rural Income and Opium Poppy Cultivation=200
1.1. Opium Production in Afghanistan, 1993 to 2013=2
2.1. Frequency of Environmental Shocks in Relation to Yields, in Afghanistan as a Whole and Southern Afghanistan, 1993-2013=13
2.2. Comparison of Wheat and Opium Poppy Yields in Afghanistan, 2002-2012=15
2.3. Counternarcotics and Other Policy Shocks in Afghanistan, 1993-2013=16
2.4. Food Security Requirements in Relation to Land Allocation Decisions=35
3.1. Opium Poppy Cultivation Factor Map=46
3.2. Percentage of Hectares of Opium Poppy Grown in Insecure Provinces and Percentage of Provinces Considered Insecure=53
3.3. Fear of Eradication and Government Reprisal in the Opium Poppy Cultivation Decision=61
3.4. Religiosity in the Opium Poppy Cultivation Decision=62
3.5. Effect of Accumulated Household Debt on the Decision to Cultivate Opium Poppy=70
3.6. Prevalence of Loans Among Opium Poppy and Non-Opium Poppy Growers=71
3.7. Price of Opium in the Opium Poppy Cultivation Decision=78
3.8. Opium Poppy Eradication in Relation to Cultivation=81
3.9. Environmental Shocks and the Opium Poppy Cultivation Decision=82
3.10. Relationship Between Opium Poppy Yield and Average Debt=83
4.1. Sources of Household Income in Southern Afghanistan, 2007-2008=88
4.2. Average National Wheat Yields in Afghanistan, 1993-2013=119
5.1. Number of Opium Poppy Hectares Eradicated by Region, 2004 to 2013=169
5.2. Share of Opium Poppy Hectares Eradicated, Total and by Region, 2004-2013=173
5.3. Helmand Food Zone, 2009=183