Title page
Contents
Summary 4
01. Introduction: A moment to act 5
Multipolar conflicts 7
About this paper 11
02. Methodology 13
03. Setting the scene 14
From the Iraq war to the JCPOA 14
The Trump administration and 'maximum pressure' 17
Cross-regional factors 19
A new US policy approach? 24
04. Past regional security efforts 25
05. Engaging multilaterally 30
Pathways to de-escalation 32
06. Addressing Iran's regional role 41
Iraq 46
Palestine 47
Lebanon 48
Syria 48
Yemen 49
07. First step: reviving the JCPOA 50
08. Parallel tracks: resolving regional conflicts 56
The Yemen track 56
The GCC track 59
The Israel-Palestine track 61
The Syria track 64
09. Confidence-building measures 66
10. Recommendations for the way forward 69
For the US 71
For the E3 72
For Iran 73
For the GCC countries 74
About the authors 76
Acknowledgments 77
Figure 1. Interviewees overwhelmingly supported the idea of a regional security framework for the Middle East 26
Figure 2. Country breakdown of responses to survey question: Would the Middle East benefit from a regional security framework? 33
Figure 3. Most effective regional security model 33
Figure 4. Unifying principles to underpin a regional security process 35
Figure 5. Middle East country breakdown of responses to survey question: What could be some unifying principles to underpin a regional security process? 35
Figure 6. Country breakdown of responses to survey question: What external factors impact regional security dynamics and Iran's influence on the Middle East? 36
Figure 7. Country breakdown of responses identifying the US as a factor impacting regional security dynamics and Iran's influence on the Middle East 37
Figure 8. Country breakdown of responses identifying regional competition as a factor impacting regional security dynamics and Iran's influence on the Middle East 37
Figure 9. Actors with the authority to manage a regional security process 38
Figure 10. Options for the Biden administration to address regional security issues 39
Figure 11. Country breakdown of responses to survey question: How should a Biden administration address regional security issues? 40
Figure 12. Responses to survey question: What drives Iran's role in the following regional countries? 42
Figure 13. Factors facilitating Iran's interference in regional countries 43
Figure 14. Middle East country breakdown of responses identifying Iran's factional political system as a contributing factor of its regional strategy 44
Figure 15. Country breakdown of responses identifying the US's return to the JCPOA as an important step towards improving regional security 51
Figure 16. Most productive CBMs for the region 67
Figure 17. Middle East country breakdown of responses to survey question: What CBMs would be most productive for the region? 68