Title page
Contents
Summary 4
01. Military technology developments and advanced capabilities 6
Introduction 6
Russian approaches to military modernization and innovation 7
Military innovation is enabling Russia's way of war 8
Lessons learned from recent deployments 9
About this paper 10
02. Military R&D, innovation and breakthrough technologies 11
Innovation trajectories and infrastructure 13
Impediments and future prospects 19
Conclusions 21
03. Putin's 'super weapons' 23
The 'super weapons' 24
What does the Russian military want to achieve with these weapons? 28
What do the new weapons tell us about Russian defence-industrial capabilities? 31
Conclusions 32
04. Russian space systems and the risk of weaponizing space 34
Russia's space forces 35
Military space programmes and projects 37
Anti-satellite programmes 42
Conclusions 45
05. Military robotics development 47
Framing the need for autonomous systems and military robotics 48
Current and future robotic aerial vehicle development 50
Current and future robotic ground vehicle development 54
Current and future maritime robotic vehicle development 58
Conclusions 61
06. Military applications of artificial intelligence: the Russian approach 63
Guiding concepts and principles 65
Key areas for AI and machine- learning investments 66
Implications for the US and NATO 72
07. Conclusions and policy recommendations 75
Ensure realistic assessments of Russian military capabilities 76
What should NATO and its allies be concerned about? 77
Craft a balanced and flexible response 77
Put the 'red' back in red-teaming 78
Demand accountability and transparency from Russia 79
About the authors 80
Acknowledgments 83
Table 1. Key Russian military-related space programmes (as of September 2021) 44
Table 2. Principal UAV systems deployed by the Russian armed forces 51
Table 3. Principal UGV systems deployed by the Russian armed forces 55
Table 4. Principal UUV systems deployed by the Russian armed forces 59