Title page
Contents
Summary 4
01. Introduction, context and scope 5
Syrian stand-off, 2017 5
Context 6
The scope of deterrence 9
The scope of this study 12
02. Attitudes and behaviours 14
Enduring Russian attitudes 14
Enduring Russian behaviours 20
03. First principles 22
1. Maintain clarity and transparency 22
2. Demonstrate solidarity and will 28
3. Support allies early 32
4. Enforce boundaries 41
5. Anticipate misunderstanding, miscommunication and miscalculation 49
6. Avoid conflict avoidance 53
7. Deterrence by denial below the threshold of war 58
Overall conclusions 62
04. Outlook and policy recommendations 66
Outlook 66
Policy recommendations 69
About the author 71
Acknowledgments 71