Title page
Contents
Summary 4
01. Introduction 6
02. Approach and methodology 11
2.1. A modified Delphi method 11
2.2. Strengths and uniqueness of approach 13
03. Results and discussion 14
3.1. Climate hazard-impact pathways 14
3.2. Risk amplifiers 16
3.3. Specific hazard-impact pathways: food insecurity 20
3.4. Specific hazard-impact pathways: migration and displacement 26
3.5. Specific hazard-impact pathways not mediated through food or human displacement 30
3.6. Addressing socio-economic vulnerabilities is in all countries' collective interest 39
04. Conclusion and recommendations 45
4.1. Recommendations 48
About the authors 50
Acknowledgments 51
Table 1. Cereals import dependencies of East African and Sahel countries (five-year import average, expressed as percentage of 2020/21 food use) 23
Table 2. Summary of socio-economic vulnerabilities (global, unless otherwise stated) likely to exacerbate near-term global and regional impacts of climate change, global and... 40
Table 3. Crop sector adaptation themes and categories, synthesized from National Communications submitted by 21 African countries to the United Nations Framework Convention... 41
Figure 1. Defining climate risk 8
Figure 2. Summary of the modified Delphi method expert engagement process, conducted over four rounds, 1 March to 9 June 2021 12
Figure 3. Expertise and region of focus of the experts participating in Round 1 of the Delphi process (156 participants) 13
Figure 4. Global hazard-impact pathways shortlist, showing climate hazards and their impacts 15
Figure 5. Near-term climate hazard-impact pathways of most concern to experts engaged at Rounds 1 and 2 15
Figure 6. Continental hazard-impact pathways shortlist, showing climate hazards and their impacts, alongside the continent where impacts from the hazard are likely to be greatest 16
Figure 7. Map of earth system tipping points of concern (boxed text summarizes experts' responses) 18
Figure 8. Classification framework for socio-economic vulnerabilities likely to amplify the impacts of climate hazard-impact pathways 19
Figure 9. Global food security hazard-impact pathways, illustrating regions where hazards may be initiated and which then go on to cause global impacts (experts' responses) 21
Figure 10. African regional food security hazard-impact pathways (a) initiated by hazards in various regions; (b) with impacts experienced in various regions (experts' responses) 22
Figure 11. Global migration/displacement, initiated by hazards arising in regions (experts' responses) 27
Figure 12. Regions of concern with regard to impacts of (a) outbound and (b) inbound migration and displacement of people due to hazards of drought and crop failure within... 28
Figure 13. 2030 projected sea levels in and around Shanghai, based on a scenario of moderate cuts to pollution, and using the Leading Consensus sea level projection (IPCC 2021) 31
Figure 14. The 10 largest ports globally, by volume handled (in TEUs), 2019 33
Figure 15. Other global hazard-impact pathways, identifying the region in which the hazard occurs (experts' responses) 35
Figure 16. Regions where cyclones and typhoons are likely to suffer (a) primary and (b) secondary climate change impacts in Asia (experts' responses) 37
Figure 17. Drought leading to conflict in Africa (experts' responses) 38
Boxes
Box 1. Climate risks: from hazards to impacts 8
Box 2. Case study: From national food insecurity to regional security concerns, and the role of global markets 23
Box 3. Case study: Migration and the cascading risk of political instability 28
Box 4. Case study: Storm damage to infrastructure in Asia, impacting global supply chains 32
Box 5. Case study: Heatwaves and changing weather patterns leading to pests and diseases 35
Box 6. Case study: The crucial role of vulnerable energy infrastructure during heatwaves 36
Box 7. Case study: Storm damage to infrastructure in Asia 38