Title page
Contents
Summary 4
01. Introduction 5
The geopolitical backdrop 6
The role of Ukraine and Russia in global resource markets 7
The potential for cascading risks 8
The scope of this paper 9
02. The pre-conflict economic climate 10
The importance of Russia and Ukraine to global resource markets 10
Pre-conflict price rises and volatility 13
The energy transition and its ramifications for Russia 15
03. Direct impacts on energy and food markets 17
Economic sanctions, trade restrictions and policy interventions 17
Price increases in energy and food markets 20
Conflict-related supply disruptions 21
04. Cascading risks from food and energy market impacts 26
A worsening cost-of-living crisis 26
Risk cascades across societies 30
05. Responding to direct and cascading risks amid uncertainty 35
The dangers of short-term policy responses 35
Prioritizing 'no-regrets' response measures 37
Navigating a new geopolitical landscape 42
Conclusions 44
About the authors 46
Acknowledgments 48
Table 1. Policy options to mitigate the impact of the Ukraine conflict on food and energy markets 41
Figure 1. Imports of Russian, Belarusian and Ukrainian fertilizers as a share of total supply 2018-20, by country 12
Figure 2. Energy, food and fertilizer price indices 2005-22 13
Boxes
Box 1. Nuclear energy in a conflict zone 23
Box 2. Supply-chain disruptions beyond energy, food and fertilizers 24
Box 3. Maintaining energy and water supplies for the displaced 32
Box 4. Destabilizing impacts in fragile economies: the cases of Egypt and Lebanon 33
Box 5. Building more resilient economies: what is needed? 36