Title page
Contents
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 6
INTRODUCTION 22
CHAPTER 1. MEGATRENDS 27
MEGATREND 1. Individual Empowerment 29
POVERTY REDUCTION 29
AN EXPANDING GLOBAL MIDDLE CLASS 29
Education and the gender gap 31
ROLE OF COMMUNICATIONS TECHNOLOGIES 32
IMPROVING HEALTH 32
A MORE CONFLICTED IDEOLOGICAL LANDSCAPE 33
MEGATREND 2. Diffusion of power 36
THE RISE AND FALL OF COUNTRIES: NOT THE SAME OLD STORY 38
THE LIMITS OF HARD POWER IN THE WORLD OF 2030 39
MEGATREND 3. Demographic Patterns 41
WIDESPREAD AGING 41
SHRINKING NUMBER OF YOUTHFUL COUNTRIES 43
A NEW AGE OF MIGRATION? 44
THE WORLD AS URBAN 47
MEGATREND 4. Growing food, water, and Energy Nexus 51
FOOD, WATER, AND CLIMATE 51
A BRIGHTER ENERGY OUTLOOK 55
CHAPTER 2. GAME-CHANGERS 59
GAME-CHANGER 1. The Crisis-Prone Global Economy 61
THE PLIGHT OF THE WEST 61
CRUNCH TIME TOO FOR THE EMERGING POWERS 64
A MULTIPOLAR GLOBAL ECONOMY: INHERENTLY MORE FRAGILE? 67
GAME-CHANGER 2. The Governance Gap 69
GOVERNANCE STARTS AT HOME: RISKS AND OPORTUNITIES 69
INCREASED FOCUS ON EQUALITY AND OPENES 74
NEW GOVERNMENTAL FORMS 75
A NEW REGIONAL ORDER? 76
GLOBAL MULTILATERAL COPERATION 76
GAME-CHANGER 3. The Potential for Increased Conflict 80
INTRASTATE CONFLICT: CONTINUED DECLINE 80
INTERSTATE CONFLICT: CHANCES RISING 82
GAME-CHANGER 4. Wider scope of regional instability 91
The Middle East: At a Tipping Point 91
South Asia: Shocks on the Horizon 96
East Asia: Multiple Strategic Futures 97
Europe: Transforming Itself 99
Sub-Saharan Africa: Turning a Corner by 2030? 100
Latin America: More Prosperous but Inherently Fragile 102
GAME-CHANGER 5. The Impact of New Technologies 104
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES 104
AUTOMATION AND MANUFACTURING TECHNOLOGIES 108
RESOURCE TECHNOLOGIES 111
HEALTH TECHNOLOGIES 116
GAME-CHANGER 6. The role of the United States 119
STEADY US ROLE 119
MULTIPLE POTENTIAL SCENARIOS FOR THE UNITED STATES' GLOBAL ROLE 122
CHAPTER 3. ALTERNATIVE WORLDS 128
1. ALTERNATIVE WORLD 1. Stalled engines 131
2. ALTERNATIVE WORLD 2. Fusion 137
3. ALTERNATIVE WORLD 3. Gini Out-of-the-Botle 143
4. ALTERNATIVE WORLD 4. Nonstate world 149
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 155
GT2030 BLOG REFERENCES 158