Title page
Contents
Acknowledgements 6
Executive Summary 12
Introduction: A Transformed World 20
More Change than Continuity 23
Alternative Futures 23
Chapter 1. The Globalizing Economy 26
Back to the Future 27
Growing Middle Class 28
State Capitalism: A Post-Democratic Marketplace Rising in the East? 28
Bumpy Ride in Correcting Current Global Imbalances 31
Multiple Financial Nodes 32
Diverging Development Models, but for How Long? 33
Chapter 2. The Demographics of Discord 38
Populations Growing, Declining, and Diversifying-at the Same Time 39
The Pensioner Boom: Challenges of Aging Populations 41
Persistent Youth Bulges 41
Changing Places: Migration, Urbanization and Ethnic Shifts 43
Demographic Portraits: Russia, China, India, and Iran 44
Chapter 3. The New Players 48
Rising Heavyweights: China and India 49
Other Key Players 51
Up-and-Coming Powers 55
Global Scenario I: A World Without the West 57
Chapter 4. Scarcity in the Midst of Plenty? 60
The Dawning of a Post-Petroleum Age? 61
The Geopolitics of Energy 65
Water, Food, and Climate Change 69
Global Scenario II: October Surprise 75
Chapter 5. Growing Potential for Conflict 78
A Shrinking Arc of Instability by 2025? 79
Growing Risk of a Nuclear Arms Race in the Middle East 79
New Conflicts Over Resources? 81
Terrorism: Good and Bad News 86
Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Iraq: Local Trajectories and Outside Interests 90
Global Scenario III: BRICs' Bust-Up 94
Chapter 6. Will the International System be up to the Challenges? 98
Multipolarity without Multilateralism 99
How Many International Systems? 100
A World of Networks 102
Global Scenario IV: Politics Is Not Always Local 107
Chapter 7. Power-Sharing in a Multipolar World 110
Demand for US Leadership Likely to Remain Strong, Capacities will Shrink 111
New Relationships and Recalibrated Old Partnerships 111
Less Financial Margin of Error 112
More Limited Military Superiority 115
Surprises and Unintended Consequences 116
Leadership Will Be Key 116
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The 2025 Global Landscape 10
Comparison Between Mapping the Global Future: Report of the Intelligence Council's 2020 Project and Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World 22
Long-Range Projections: A Cautionary Tale 25
Globalization at Risk with the 2008 Financial Crisis? 30
Science and Technology Leadership: A Test for the Emerging Powers 33
Latin America: Moderate Economic Growth, Continued Urban Violence 35
Women as Agents of Geopolitical Change 36
Higher Education Shaping the Global Landscape in 2025 37
The Impact of HIV/AIDS 43
Muslims in Western Europe 45
Timing is Everything 64
Winners and Losers in a Post-Petroleum World 66
Technology Breakthroughs by 2025 67
Two Climate Change Winners 70
Strategic Implications of an Opening Arctic 71
Sub-Saharan Africa: More Interactions with the World and More Troubled 74
A Non-nuclear Korea? 80
Middle East/North Africa: Economics Drives Change, but with Major Risk of Turmoil 82
Energy Security 84
Another Use of Nuclear Weapons? 85
Why al-Qa'ida's "Terrorist Wave" Might Be Breaking Up 87
The Changing Character of Conflict 89
End of Ideology? 91
Potential Emergence of a Global Pandemic 93
Greater Regionalism-Plus or Minus for Global Governance? 101
Proliferating Identities and Growing Intolerance? 104
Future of Democracy: Backsliding More Likely than Another Wave 105
Anti-Americanism on the Wane? 113