Title page
Contents
TASK FORCE FOR FOSTERING A FOURTH DEMOCRATIC WAVE 5
Foreword 6
Introduction 7
Executive Summary 9
Policy Recommendations 17
PART 1. Foundations 21
1. Civil Resistance Movements and Democratization 22
2. Democratic Waves and Analysis of Contemporary Trends 28
PART 2. A Three-Pillar Strategy to Foster a Fourth Democratic Wave 39
3. Pillar I: Broadening Options to Enable and Support Civil Resistance 40
Pillar I: Policy Recommendations 54
4. Pillar II: Developing a New Normative Framework-the Right to Assistance (R2A) 56
Pillar II: Policy Recommendations 62
5. Pillar III: Strengthening Democratic Solidarity to Pressure and Constrain Repressive Regimes 63
Pillar III: Policy Recommendations 72
PART 3. Weighing Risks And Opportunities 73
6. Addressing Questions About Implementation 74
About the Authors 79
Acknowledgments 80
Figure 1. Probability That a Country Will Be a Democracy Five Years After a Campaign Ends (1900-2006) 25
Figure 2. Outcomes of Transitions from Authoritarianism According to Driver of the Transition (1972-2004) 30
Figure 3. Onsets of Nonviolent and Violent Mass Campaigns, by Decade (1900-2019) 36
Figure 4. Success Rates of Nonviolent and Violent Mass Campaigns, by Decade (1930-2019) 36