Title page
Contents
INTRODUCTION 5
CHAPTER 1. EUROPE'S PERMANENT SUEZ 9
CHAPTER 2. EUROPE'S CRITICAL CHOICES 16
THE FISCAL PROBLEM 16
THE HOSTAGE PROBLEM 19
THE COLLECTIVE ACTION PROBLEM 21
THE JUST TRANSITION PROBLEM 22
THE INDUSTRIAL PROBLEM 24
CHAPTER 3. THE GREEN WORLD ORDER 29
THE DEATH OF THE OLD ORDER 31
CLASH OF THE GLOBAL INDUSTRIAL POLICIES 35
THE CLASH OF THE GLOBAL MINING WEBS 37
THE MINING STATES STRIKE BACK 38
FUNDING A GLOBAL TRANSITION 45
CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS: EUROPE'S RESPONSE TO THE GREEN WORLD ORDER 47
MAKING THE UNION FIT FOR PURPOSE 47
MAINTAINING GLOBAL COOPERATION 48
EUROPE, THE UNITED STATES, AND CHINA 49
POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS 51
ABOUT THE AUTHORS 53
Table 1. Europe's Green Deal Industrial Plan 18
Figure 1. A Brief Timeline of Europe's Energy Vulnerabilities 10
Figure 2. Germany's Coal Backsliding 22
Figure 3. China's Automobile Revolution 27
Figure 4. China's 'All of the Above' Energy 32
Figure 5. The IRA Is Not Holding Back EU Automobiles 34
Figure 6. Europe's Unhealthy Reliance on Oil Imports 39
Figure 7. Europe's Unhealthy Reliance on Metal Imports 40
Figure 8. The Critical Mineral Trade Remains Outmatched by the Fossil Fuels Trade 42
Figure 9. Share of global exports subject to an export restriction, 2020 43
Figure 10. Share of global exploration budget for select materials by country, 2012 and 2022 44