Title
Contents
Acknowledgements 5
The Authors 6
1. Project objectives 7
2. Background 8
3. Statistical methodology 12
4. Data and estimates of the Income Support exit rate 16
5. Data and estimates of the Income Support entry rate 26
6. Simulating the effects of the reform and the effects of extending the disregard 30
7. Conclusions and further research 36
References 38
Table 4.1 Summary statistics 17
Table 4.2 Estimated parameters of CS and IS survival rate equations 25
Table 5.1 Summary statistics for FACS entry to IS sample 27
Table 6.1 Simulated effects of expanding the disregard on IS exit rate: conditional on CS and unconditional total effects 33
Table 6.2 Simulated effects of expanding the disregard on percentage of PWCs with a CS calculation and on IS: overall 35
Figure 4.1 Distribution of spell lengths (months): old cases 18
Figure 4.2 Distribution of spell lengths (months): new cases 18
Figure 4.3 Plots of survival rates 20
Figure 4.4 Distribution of NRP CS payments for old cases 20
Figure 4.5 Distribution of NRP CS payments for new cases 21
Figure 4.6 Distribution of NRP CS liabilities for old cases 21
Figure 4.7 Distribution of NRP CS liabilities for new cases 22
Figure 5.1 Distribution of CS receipt 28
Figure 5.2 Entry to IS by off-IS spell duration 29
Figure 6.1 Distribution of NRP predicted CS payments 31
Figure 6.2 Predicted average CS payments by disregard size: old and new cases 34
Figure 6.3 Predicted average CS payments by disregard size: all cases by CS 34
Figure 6.4 Cumulative distribution of PWCs by NRP liability 35