Title
Contents
Acknowledgements 8
The Authors 9
Abbreviations 10
Summary 11
1. Introduction 16
1.1 Policy background 16
1.2 The Pathways programme 16
1.3 The roll-out of Pathways 18
1.4 The Pathways evaluation 19
1.5 Report outline 20
2. Data 21
2.1 Overview of data used 21
2.2 The National Benefits Database 22
2.3 The cohorts 23
3. Incapacity benefits customers in the expansion areas 25
3.1 Introduction 25
3.2 Regional distribution 25
3.3 Personal characteristics 26
3.4 Benefit history 27
3.5 Benefit outcomes 28
3.5.1 Additional claims for incapacity benefits 28
3.5.2 Duration of claims for incapacity benefits 29
3.5.3 Receipt of incapacity benefits 29
3.5.4 Receipt of JSA 31
3.5.5 Receipt of either incapacity benefits or JSA 32
3.6 Summary 34
4. Methods 36
4.1 The evaluation problem 36
4.2 The difference-in-differences methodology 37
4.3 Plausibility of the DiD assumptions 39
4.4 Testing the common trends assumption 40
4.4.1 Pre-programme tests for the October 2005 areas 40
4.4.2 Pre-programme tests for the April 2006 areas 42
4.5 Implications for the analysis 43
5. Results 44
5.1 Introduction 44
5.2 The impact of Pathways on claims for incapacity benefits 44
5.3 The impact of Pathways on claims for JSA 47
5.4 The impact of Pathways on claims for either incapacity benefits or JSA 50
5.5 Summary 53
6. Subgroup analysis 55
6.1 Introduction 55
6.2 The impact of Pathways by gender 57
6.2.1 The impact of Pathways on claims for incapacity benefits 57
6.2.2 The impact of Pathways on claims for JSA 59
6.2.3 The impact of Pathways on claims for either incapacity benefits or JSA 61
6.3 The impact of Pathways by age 63
6.3.1 The impact of Pathways on claims for incapacity benefits 63
6.3.2 The impact of Pathways on claims for JSA 66
6.3.3 The impact of Pathways on claims for either incapacity benefits or JSA 69
6.4 The impact of Pathways by the type of health condition 71
6.4.1 The impact of Pathways on claims for incapacity benefits 71
6.4.2 The impact of Pathways on claims for JSA 74
6.4.3 The impact of Pathways on the receipt of either incapacity benefits or JSA 77
6.5 Summary 80
7. Conclusions 82
References 86
Table 1. Key findings for new and repeat customers in the pilot and expansion areas 14
Table 3.1 Distribution of claims for incapacity benefits across Jobcentre Plus districts - October 2005 areas 26
Table 3.2 Distribution of claims for incapacity benefits across Jobcentre Plus districts - April 2006 areas 26
Table 3.3 Personal characteristics of the post-intervention cohorts 27
Table 3.4 Benefit history of the post-intervention cohorts 28
Table 3.5 Additional claims for incapacity benefits made by the post-intervention cohorts 29
Table 4.1 An illustration of the DiD estimator 37
Figure 2.1 Timing of the start of the claim for incapacity benefits 23
Figure 3.1 Claims for incapacity benefits, by month since start of claim - October 2005 areas 30
Figure 3.2 Claims for incapacity benefits, by month since start of claim - April 2006 areas 30
Figure 3.3 Claims for JSA, by month since start of claim for incapacity benefits - October 2005 areas 31
Figure 3.4 Claims for JSA, by month since start of claim for incapacity benefits - April 2006 areas 32
Figure 3.5 Claims for either incapacity benefits or JSA, by month since start of claim for incapacity benefits - October 2005 areas 33
Figure 3.6 Claims for either incapacity benefits or JSA, by month since start of claim for incapacity benefits - April 2006 areas 33
Figure 4.1 Timing of the start of the claim for the pre-intervention cohorts 40
Figure 4.2 Tests of the common trends assumption in the October 2005 areas one year before the introduction of Pathways 41
Figure 4.3 Tests of the common trends assumption in the April 2006 areas one year before the introduction of Pathways 42
Figure 5.1 Impact of Pathways on being off incapacity benefits, by month - October 2005 areas 45
Figure 5.2 Impact of Pathways on being off incapacity benefits, by month - April 2006 areas 47
Figure 5.3 Impact of Pathways on being off JSA, by month - October 2005 areas 48
Figure 5.4 Impact of Pathways on being off JSA, by month - April 2006 areas 50
Figure 5.5 Impact of Pathways on not claiming incapacity benefits or JSA, by month - October 2005 areas 51
Figure 5.6 Impact of Pathways on being off incapacity benefits or JSA, by month - April 2006 areas 52
Figure 6.1 Impact of Pathways on being off incapacity benefits, by month - men 58
Figure 6.2 Impact of Pathways on being off incapacity benefits, by month - women 59
Figure 6.3 Impact of Pathways on not claiming JSA, by month - men 60
Figure 6.4 Impact of Pathways on not claiming JSA, by month - women 61
Figure 6.5 Impact of Pathways on not claiming incapacity benefits or JSA, by month - men 62
Figure 6.6 Impact of Pathways on not claiming incapacity benefits or JSA, by month - women 63
Figure 6.7 Impact of Pathways on being off incapacity benefits, by month - under the age of 50 64
Figure 6.8 Impact of Pathways on being off incapacity benefits, by month - aged 50 or more 65
Figure 6.9 Impact of Pathways on not claiming JSA, by month - under the age of 50 67
Figure 6.10 Impact of Pathways on not claiming JSA, by month - aged 50 or more 68
Figure 6.11 Impact of Pathways on not claiming incapacity benefits or JSA, by month - under the age of 50 69
Figure 6.12 Impact of Pathways on not claiming incapacity benefits or JSA, by month - aged 50 or more 70
Figure 6.13 Impact of Pathways on being off incapacity benefits, by month - no recorded mental or behavioural disorder 72
Figure 6.14 Impact of Pathways on being off incapacity benefits, by month - recorded mental or behavioural disorder 73
Figure 6.15 Impact of Pathways on not claiming JSA, by month - no recorded mental or behavioural disorder 75
Figure 6.16 Impact of Pathways on not claiming JSA, by month - recorded mental or behavioural disorder 76
Figure 6.17 Impact of Pathways on not claiming either incapacity benefits or JSA, by month - no recorded mental or behavioural disorder 78
Figure 6.18 Impact of Pathways on not claiming either incapacity benefits or JSA, by month - recorded mental or behavioural disorder 79