Contents
LIST OF ACRONYMS 11
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 13
1. INTRODUCTION 15
1.1. Pedestrian Crash Problem 15
1.2. Target Pedestrian Crashes 16
1.3. Data Sources 17
1.3.1. General Estimates System 17
1.3.2. Fatality Analysis Reporting System 18
1.3.3. Pedestrian Crash Data Study 18
1.3.4. Not-in-Traffic Surveillance 18
1.4. Literature Review 19
1.4.1. Insurance Institute for Highway Safety 19
1.4.2. Autonomous Emergency Braking Test Group 20
1.4.3. National Traffic Safety and Environment Laboratory, Japan 20
1.4.4. European Harm Functions 21
1.4.5. Advanced Forward-Looking Safety Systems 22
1.4.6. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration 23
2. IDENTIFICATION AND PRIORITIZATION OF PEDESTRIAN PRE-CRASH SCENARIOS 24
2.1. Vehicle-Pedestrian Maneuver Matrix 24
2.2. Physical Settings 29
2.2.1. Intersection Type 29
2.2.2. Roadway 30
2.2.3. Recommendations for Priority Scenarios 31
3. STATISTICAL DESCRIPTION OF PRIORITY PEDESTRIAN PRE-CRASH SCENARIOS 34
3.1. Environmental Factors 35
3.1.1. Atmospheric Condition 35
3.1.2. Light Condition 37
3.1.3. Surface Condition 37
3.2. Contributing Factors for Priority Scenarios 40
3.2.1. Traffic Flow and Lanes 40
3.2.2. Travel Speed and Speed Limit 44
3.2.3. Vision Obscured 44
3.2.4. Driver Alcohol Involvement 47
3.3. Pedestrian Characteristics 49
3.3.1. Pedestrian Age 49
3.3.2. Pedestrian Gender 51
3.3.3. Average Person Sizes 51
3.3.4. Pedestrian Alcohol Involvement 53
3.3.5. Pedestrian Harm Function 55
4. PEDESTRIAN FATALITY LOCATIONS 57
5. SAFETY BENEFIT ESTIMATION 59
5.1. General Equation of Safety Benefits 59
5.2. General Equation of System Effectiveness 59
5.2.1. Assumptions 61
5.2.2. Crash Database Adjustment Factors 61
5.3. Harm Measures 62
5.3.1. Annual Harm 62
5.3.2. Harm Ratio 64
5.3.3. Average Harm Function 65
5.3.4. Curve Fitting/ Smoothing of Average Harm Function 68
5.4. PCAM Objective Tests 69
5.4.1. PCAM System Performance 70
5.5. Pedestrian Distribution 72
5.5.1. Determination of Test Performance Data Application 75
5.5.2. Distribution of Pedestrians in Baseline and PCAM Intervention Cases 76
5.6. System Effectiveness 82
5.7. Potential Safety Benefits 83
6. CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS 85
7. REFERENCES 88
APPENDIX A 90
APPENDIX B 99
APPENDIX C 101
Table 1. Target Pedestrian Crashes From National Databases 16
Table 2. Vehicle-Pedestrian Pre-Crash Scenarios Ranked by GES Frequency for PCAM Target Crashes 26
Table 3. Vehicle-Pedestrian Pre-Crash Scenarios Ranked by Direct Economic Cost and Functional Years Lost for PCAM Target Crashes Based on 2005-2009 GES 27
Table 4. Intersection Type for PCAM Target Pedestrians 29
Table 5. Pedestrian Location for PCAM Target Crashes 30
Table 6. Pedestrians in Relation to the Roadway in PCAM Target Crashes 30
Table 7. Roadway Alignment for PCAM Target Crashes 31
Table 8. Roadway Profile for PCAM Target Crashes 31
Table 9. Economic Cost, Functional Years Lost, and Weight of GES Cases for the Four Priority Pedestrian Pre-Crash Scenarios 33
Table 10. Pedestrian Fatalities in FARS by the Four Priority Pre-Crash Scenarios 34
Table 11. Pedestrian Direction in PCDS by the Four Priority Pre-Crash Scenarios 34
Table 12. Number of Travel Lanes by Priority Scenarios for All GES Cases on Non-Divided Roadways 41
Table 13. Number of Travel Lanes by Priority Scenarios for GES Fatalities on Non-Divided Roadways 42
Table 14. Number of Travel Lanes by Priority Scenarios for FARS Cases on Non-Divided Roadways 43
Table 15. Breakdown of GES Cases for Speed-Related Factor by Priority Scenarios 44
Table 16. Alcohol Involvement by Priority Scenarios for GES Vehicle-Pedestrian Crashes 47
Table 17. Pedestrian Gender by Priority Scenarios in GES and FARS 51
Table 18. Pedestrian Alcohol Involvement by Priority Scenarios Based on GES Data 53
Table 19. 2008-2010 United States Pedestrian Fatality Counts 58
Table 20. Adjustment Factors for PCDS Pedestrian Case Counts 62
Table 21. KABCO-MAIS Injury Level Conversion 63
Table 22. Pedestrian Crash Annual Harm Measures by Priority Scenarios Based on 2009 GES 64
Table 23. Estimation of αm Based on 2009 GES Statistics 64
Table 24. Estimation of αm Based on PCDS Data 65
Table 25. Average Harm Functions Based on Actual PCDS Case Counts 66
Table 26. Adjustment Factors of PCDS Pedestrian Case Counts for Average Harm Estimation 66
Table 27. Average Harm Functions Based on Weighted PCDS Case Counts 67
Table 28. Smoothed Average Harm Functions 69
Table 29. PCAM Functional Tests Performed by CAMP 70
Table 30. Speed Reduction Results for Vehicle C in an S1 Scenario With a Running Pedestrian 71
Table 31. Speed Reduction Results for Vehicle C in an S1 Scenario With a Walking Pedestrian 71
Table 32. Distribution of Pedestrians by Impact Speed in Target and PCAM-Applicable Crashes 73
Table 33. Distribution of Pedestrians by Priority Pre-Scenarios in Baseline PCAM-Applicable Crashes Based on Actual PCDS Case Counts 74
Table 34. Distribution of Pedestrians by Priority Pre-Crash Scenarios in Baseline PCAM-Applicable Crashes Based on Weighted PCDS Cases 75
Table 35. Unsmoothed Baseline and PCAM-Applicable Pedestrian Distribution for S1 Scenario, Pedestrian Running, No Obstruction 77
Table 36. Unsmoothed Baseline and PCAM-Applicable Pedestrian Distribution for S1 Scenario, Pedestrian Walking, No Obstruction 78
Table 37. Smoothed Baseline and PCAM-Applicable Pedestrian Distribution for S1 Scenario With Pedestrian Running and No Obstruction 79
Table 38. Smoothed Baseline and PCAM-Applicable Pedestrian Distribution for S1 Scenario With Pedestrian Walking and No Obstruction 80
Table 39. Estimates of PCAM System Effectiveness in S1 Scenario 83
Table 40. System Benefits Estimation for S1 Scenario With No Obstruction and Pedestrian Running 84
Table 41. System Benefits Estimation for S1 Scenario With No Obstruction and Pedestrian Walking 84
Table 42. GES All Cases - Travel Speed Versus Posted Speed Limit for S1 Pre-Crash Scenario 90
Table 43. GES All Cases - Travel Speed Versus Posted Speed Limit for S1 Pre-Crash Scenario Percentage 90
Table 44. GES All Cases - Travel Speed Versus Posted Speed Limit for S2 Pre-Crash Scenario 91
Table 45. GES All Cases - Travel Speed Versus Posted Speed Limit for S2 Pre-Crash Scenario Percentage 91
Table 46. GES All Cases - Travel Speed Versus Posted Speed Limit for S3 Pre-Crash Scenario 91
Table 47. GES All Cases - Travel Speed Versus Posted Speed Limit for S3 Pre-Crash Scenario Percentage 92
Table 48. GES All Cases - Travel Speed Versus Posted Speed Limit for S4 Pre-Crash Scenario 92
Table 49. GES All Cases - Travel Speed Versus Posted Speed Limit for S4 Pre-Crash Scenario Percentage 92
Table 50. GES Fatalities Only - Travel Speed Versus Posted Speed Limit for S1 Pre-Crash Scenario 93
Table 51. GES Fatalities Only - Travel Speed Versus Posted Speed Limit for S1 Pre-Crash Scenario Percentage 93
Table 52. GES Fatalities Only - Travel Speed Versus Posted Speed Limit for S4 Pre-Crash Scenario 94
Table 53. GES Fatalities Only - Travel Speed Versus Posted Speed Limit for S4 Pre-Crash Scenario Percentage 94
Table 54. FARS Travel Speed Versus Posted Speed Limit for S1 Pre-Crash Scenario 95
Table 55. FARS Travel Speed Versus Posted Speed Limit for S1 Pre-Crash Scenario Percentage 95
Table 56. FARS Travel Speed Versus Posted Speed Limit for S2 Pre-Crash Scenario 96
Table 57. FARS Travel Speed Versus Posted Speed Limit for S2 Pre-Crash Scenario Percentage 96
Table 58. FARS Travel Speed Versus Posted Speed Limit for S3 Pre-Crash Scenario 97
Table 59. FARS Travel Speed Versus Posted Speed Limit for S3 Pre-Crash Scenario Percentage 97
Table 60. FARS Travel Speed Versus Posted Speed Limit for S4 Pre-Crash Scenario 98
Table 61. FARS Travel Speed Versus Posted Speed Limit for S4 Pre-Crash Scenario Percentage 98
Table 62. Links to State Fatality Maps 99
Figure 1. Pedestrians Struck by Light Vehicles in the First Events of the Crashes by Year 16
Figure 2. Target Pre-Crash Scenario Parameters 17
Figure 3. Vehicle Maneuver for Striking Vehicles Within GES 24
Figure 4. Pedestrian Maneuvers Within GES 25
Figure 5. Vehicle Maneuver for Striking Vehicles Based on FARS 28
Figure 6. Pedestrian Maneuvers/Contributing Factors Based on FARS 28
Figure 7. Recommended Scenarios for PCAM Priority Pre-Crash Scenarios 32
Figure 8. Atmospheric Conditions by Priority Scenarios for All GES Cases 36
Figure 9. Atmospheric Conditions by Priority Scenarios for GES Fatalities 36
Figure 10. Atmospheric Conditions by Priority Scenarios for FARS Cases 36
Figure 11. Light Conditions by Priority Scenarios for All GES Cases 38
Figure 12. Light Conditions by Priority Scenarios for GES Fatalities 38
Figure 13. Light Conditions by Priority Scenarios for FARS 38
Figure 14. Surface Conditions by Priority Scenarios for All GES Cases 39
Figure 15. Surface Conditions by Priority Scenarios for GES Fatalities 39
Figure 16. Surface Conditions by Priority Scenarios for FARS Cases 39
Figure 17. Traffic Flow by Priority Scenarios for All GES Cases 41
Figure 18. Traffic Flow by Priority Scenarios for GES Fatalities 42
Figure 19. Traffic Flow by Priority Scenarios for FARS Cases 43
Figure 20. Vision Obstructions by Priority Scenarios for All GES Cases 46
Figure 21. Vision Obstructions by Priority Scenarios for GES Fatalities 46
Figure 22. Vision Obstructions by Priority Scenarios for FARS Cases 46
Figure 23. Vision Obstructions by Priority Scenarios for PCDS Cases 46
Figure 24. Driver Distraction by Priority Scenarios for All GES Cases 48
Figure 25. Driver Distraction by Priority Scenarios for GES Fatalities 48
Figure 26. Pedestrian Age by Priority Scenario for All GES Cases 50
Figure 27. Pedestrian Age by Priority Scenario for GES Fatalities 50
Figure 28. Pedestrian Age by Priority Scenario for FARS Cases 50
Figure 29. Person Average Height Based on CDS Data 52
Figure 30. Person Average Weight Based on CDS Data 52
Figure 31. Pedestrian Impairment by Priority Scenarios for All GES Cases 54
Figure 32. Pedestrian Impairment by Priority Scenarios for GES Fatalities 54
Figure 33. Harm Function for Priority Scenario 1 56
Figure 34. Harm Function for Priority Scenario 2 56
Figure 35. Harm Function for Priority Scenario 3 56
Figure 36. Harm Function for Priority Scenario 4 56
Figure 37. Pedestrian Fatalities Google Map for Alabama 58
Figure 38. Comparison of Pedestrian Distributions by KABCO Scale Between PCDS and GES 67
Figure 39. Average Speed Reduction (mph) for Vehicle C in S1 Scenarios 72
Figure 40. Smoothed Baseline and PCAM Pedestrian Distribution for S1 Scenario With Pedestrian Running and No Obstruction for Actual PCDS Cases 81
Figure 41. Smoothed Baseline and PCAM Pedestrian Distribution for S1 Scenario With Pedestrian Running and No Obstruction for Weighted PCDS Cases 81
Figure 42. Smoothed Baseline and PCAM Pedestrian Distribution for S1 Scenario With Pedestrian Walking and No Obstruction for Actual PCDS Cases 82
Figure 43. Smoothed Baseline and PCAM Pedestrian Distribution for S1 Scenario With Pedestrian Walking and No Obstruction for Weighted PCDS Cases 82
Figure 44. Smoothed Baseline and PCAM-Applicable Pedestrian Distribution for Actual PCDS Counts for S2 Scenario, Pedestrian Walking, No Obstruction 101
Figure 45. Smoothed Baseline and PCAM-Applicable Pedestrian Distribution for Weighted PCDS Cases for S2 Scenario, Pedestrian Walking, No Obstruction 101
Figure 46. Smoothed Baseline and PCAM-Applicable Pedestrian Distribution for Actual PCDS Counts for S3 Scenario, Pedestrian Walking, No Obstruction 102
Figure 47. Smoothed Baseline and PCAM-Applicable Pedestrian Distribution for Weighted PCDS Cases for S3 Scenario, Pedestrian Walking, No Obstruction 102