Contents
Preface 4
Executive summary 9
Introduction 17
Economic growth 18
Energy prices 20
Crude oil 20
Petroleum and other liquids products 21
Natural gas 22
Coal 23
Electricity 24
Delivered energy consumption by sector 25
Transportation 25
Industrial 28
Residential and commercial 29
Energy consumption by primary fuel 31
Energy intensity 32
Energy production, imports, and exports 33
Petroleum and other liquids 34
Natural gas 36
Coal 38
Electricity generation 40
Energy-related carbon dioxide emissions 42
List of acronyms 44
Figure and table sources 45
Appendix A. Reference case 48
Appendix B. Economic growth case comparisons 88
Appendix C. Price case comparisons 97
Appendix D. High oil and gas resource case comparisons 111
Appendix E. Comparison of AEO2015 and AEO2014 Reference cases and key updates to models and data 127
Appendix F. Regional Maps 140
Appendix G. Conversion factors 148
Table ES1. Growth of trade-related factors in the Reference case, 1983-2040 11
Table 1. Summary of AEO2015 cases 17
Table 2. Growth in key economic factors in historical data and in the Reference case 18
Table 3. Average annual growth of labor productivity, employment, income, and consumption in three cases 20
Table 4. Residential households and commercial indicators in three AEO2015 cases, 2013 and 2040 30
Figure ES1. North Sea Brent crude oil spot prices in four cases, 2005-40 10
Figure ES2. Average Henry Hub spot prices for natural gas in four cases, 2005-40 10
Figure ES3. U.S. net energy imports in six cases,2005-40 11
Figure ES4. Net crude oil and petroleum product imports as a percentage of U.S. product supplied in four cases, 2005-40 12
Figure ES5. U.S. total net natural gas imports in four cases, 2005-40 12
Figure ES6. Change in U.S. Lower 48 onshore crude oil production by region in six cases, 2013-40 13
Figure ES7. Delivered energy consumption for transportation in six cases, 2008-40 14
Figure ES8. Total U.S. renewable generation in all sectors by fuel in six cases, 2013 and 2040 15
Figure 1. Annual changes in U.S. gross domestic product, business investment, and exports in the Reference case, 2015-40 19
Figure 2. Annual growth rates for industrial output in three cases, 2013-40 19
Figure 3. North Sea Brent crude oil prices in three cases, 2005-40 21
Figure 4. Motor gasoline prices in three cases, 2005-40 21
Figure 5. Distillate fuel oil prices in three cases, 2005-40 21
Figure 6. Average Henry Hub spot prices for natural gas in four cases, 2005-40 22
Figure 7. Average minemouth coal prices by region in the Reference case, 1990-2040 23
Figure 8. Average delivered coal prices in six cases, 1990-2040 24
Figure 9. Average retail electricity prices in six cases, 2013-40 24
Figure 10. Delivered energy consumption for transportation by mode in the Reference case, 2013 and 2040 26
Figure 11. Delivered energy consumption for transportation in six cases, 2008-40 26
Figure 12. Industrial sector total delivered energy consumption in three cases, 2010-40 28
Figure 13. Industrial sector natural gas consumption for heat and power in three cases, 2010-40 28
Figure 14. Residential sector delivered energy consumption by fuel in the Reference case, 2010-40 29
Figure 15. Commercial sector delivered energy consumption by fuel in the Reference case, 2010-40 29
Figure 16. Residential sector delivered energy intensity for selected end uses in the Reference case, 2013 and 2040 31
Figure 17. Commercial sector delivered energy intensity for selected end uses in the Reference case, 2013 and 2040 31
Figure 18. Primary energy consumption by fuel in the Reference case, 1980-2040 31
Figure 19. Energy use per capita and per 2009 dollar of gross domestic product, and carbon dioxide emissions per 2009 dollar of gross domestic product, in the Reference case, 1980-2040 (index, 2005=1.0) 33
Figure 20. Total energy production and consumption in the Reference case, 1980-2040 33
Figure 21. U.S. tight oil production in four cases, 2005-40 34
Figure 22. U.S. total crude oil production in four cases, 2005-40 34
Figure 23. U.S. net crude oil imports in four cases, 2005-40 35
Figure 24. U.S. net petroleum product imports in four cases, 2005-40 36
Figure 25. U.S. total dry natural gas production in four cases, 2005-40 36
Figure 26. U.S. shale gas production in four cases, 2005-40 37
Figure 27. U.S. total natural gas net imports in four cases, 2005-40 37
Figure 28. U.S. liquefied natural gas net imports in four cases, 2005-40 38
Figure 29. U.S. coal production in six cases, 1990-2040 39
Figure 30. U.S. coal exports in six cases, 1990-2040 39
Figure 31. Electricity generation by fuel in the Reference case, 2000-2040 40
Figure 32. Electricity generation by fuel in six cases, 2013 and 2040 40
Figure 33. Coal and natural gas combined-cycle generation capacity factors in two cases, 2010-40 41
Figure 34. Renewable electricity generation by fuel type in the Reference case, 2000-2040 41
Figure 35. Cumulative additions to electricity generation capacity by fuel in six cases, 2013-40 42
Figure 36. Energy-related carbon dioxide emissions in six cases. 2000-2040 42
Figure 37. Energy-related carbon dioxide emissions by sector in the Reference case, 2005, 2013, 2025, and 2040 43
Boxes
Box 1. Changes in release cycle for EIA's Annual Energy Outlook 18
Box 2. Future gasoline vehicles are strong competitors when compared with other vehicle technology types on the basis of fuel economics 27
Box 3. The Annual Energy Outlook 2015 includes several types of light-duty vehicle hybrid technology 27
Table A1. Total energy supply, disposition, and price summary 48
Table A2. Energy consumption by sector and source 50
Table A3. Energy prices by sector and source 53
Table A4. Residential sector key indicators and consumption 56
Table A5. Commercial sector key indicators and consumption 58
Table A6. Industrial sector key indicators and consumption 60
Table A7. Transportation sector key indicators and delivered energy consumption 63
Table A8. Electricity supply, disposition, prices, and emissions 65
Table A9. Electricity generating capacity 67
Table A10. Electricity trade 69
Table A11. Petroleum and other liquids supply and disposition 70
Table A12. Petroleum and other liquids prices 72
Table A13. Natural gas supply, disposition, and prices 74
Table A14. Oil and gas supply 75
Table A15. Coal supply, disposition, and prices 76
Table A16. Renewable energy generating capacity and generation 78
Table A17. Renewable energy consumption by sector and source 80
Table A18. Energy-related carbon dioxide emissions by sector and source 82
Table A19. Energy-related carbon dioxide emissions by end use 83
Table A20. Macroeconomic indicators 85
Table A21. International petroleum and other liquids supply, disposition, and prices 86
Table B1. Total energy supply, disposition, and price summary 88
Table B2. Energy consumption by sector and source 90
Table B3. Energy prices by sector and source 93
Table B4. Macroeconomic indicators 96
Table C1. Total energy supply, disposition, and price summary 97
Table C2. Energy consumption by sector and source 99
Table C3. Energy prices by sector and source 102
Table C4. Petroleum and other liquids supply and disposition 105
Table C5. Petroleum and other liquids prices 107
Table C6. International petroleum and other liquids supply, disposition, and prices 109
Table D1. Total energy supply, disposition, and price summary 111
Table D2. Energy consumption by sector and source 113
Table D3. Energy prices by sector and source 116
Table D4. Petroleum and other liquids supply and disposition 119
Table D5. Petroleum and other liquids prices 121
Table D6. Natural gas supply, disposition, and prices 123
Table D7. Oil and gas supply 124
Table D8. International petroleum and other liquids supply, disposition, and prices 125
Table E1. Comparison of projections in the AEO2015 and AEO2014 Reference cases, 2012-40 128
Table G1. Heat contents 148
Figure E1. Average annual Brent crude oil spot prices in the AEO2015 and AEO2014 Reference cases, 1990-2040 132
Figure E2. Delivered energy consumption by end-use sector in the AEO2015 and AEO2014 Reference cases, 2013, 2020, 2030, and 2040 134
Figure E3. Primary energy consumption by fuel in the AEO2015 and AEO2014 Reference cases, 2013 and 2040 135
Figure E4. Total energy production and consumption in the AEO2015 and AEO2014 Reference cases, 1980-2040 136
Figure E5. Share of U.S. liquid fuels supply from net imports in the AEO2015 and AEO2014 Reference cases, 1970-2040 136
Figure E6. Electricity generation by fuel in the AEO2015 and AEO2014 Reference cases, 2013, 2020, 2030, and 2040 138
Figure F1. United States Census Divisions 140
Figure F2. Electricity market module regions 142
Figure F3. Liquid fuels market module regions 143
Figure F4. Oil and gas supply model regions 144
Figure F5. Natural gas transmission and distribution model regions 145
Figure F6. Coal supply regions 146
Figure F7. Coal demand regions 147