Contents
Introduction 6
Analysis approach 10
Caveats regarding interpretation of the analysis results 11
Summary of Results 13
Energy Market Results 15
Natural gas prices 15
Natural gas supply and consumption 16
Total energy use, energy-related carbon dioxide emissions, and end-use expenditures 20
Macroeconomic Effects 25
Macroeconomic considerations related to increased energy exports 25
Economic results from EIA modeling 25
Results for 12- and 20-Bcf/d scenarios using alternative baselines 27
Appendix A. Request Letter 30
Appendix B. Summary Tables 32
Tables
Table 1. Added LNG exports needed in each pairing of DOE/FE export scenarios and baseline cases 10
Table 2. Cumulative energy-related CO₂ emissions over 2015-40 and difference from baseline for all pairings 22
Table 3. Average natural gas expenditures over 2015-40 and difference from baseline for all pairings 23
Table 4. Average electricity expenditures over 2015-40 and difference from baseline for all pairings 24
Figures
Figure 1. Lower 48 states LNG exports in scenarios specified by DOE/FE 7
Figure 2. Lower 48 states LNG exports in the five AEO2014 baseline cases 8
Figure 3. Average Lower 48 states natural gas supply price in the five AEO2014 baseline cases used in this study 9
Figure 4. Added average LNG export-related demand needed in each pairing of DOE/FE export scenarios and baseline cases (2015-40) 11
Figure 5. Percentage change in average Lower-48 states natural gas supply prices relative to baseline 15
Figure 6. Percentage change in average natural gas residential prices relative to baseline 16
Figure 7. Change in average natural gas supply and delivered end-use consumption in three export scenarios relative to the Reference case baseline (excludes natural gas liquefaction consumption) 17
Figure 8. Change in average natural gas supply in the three export scenarios relative to five baseline cases (2015-40) 18
Figure 9. Change in average natural gas consumption in the three export scenarios relative to five baselines (2015-40) 19
Figure 10. Change in average electric power generation in the three export scenarios relative to five baselines (2015-40) 20
Figure 11. Change in average total domestic energy use in the three export scenarios relative to five baselines (2015-40) 21
Figure 12. Real GDP impacts of the export scenarios relative to the Reference baseline, undiscounted and discounted (4% discount rate), billion 2005 dollars 26
Figure 13. Change in real consumption in the export scenarios compared to the Reference baseline, undiscounted and discounted (4% discount rate), billion 2005 dollars 27
Figure 14. Cumulative and percent change in real GDP in the 12-Bcf/d scenario relative to alternative baselines, billion 2005 dollars 28
Figure 15. Cumulative and percent change in real GDP in the 20-Bcf/d scenario relative to alternative baselines, billion 2005 dollars 29
Appendix Tables
Table B1. U.S. Annual Averages Values from 2015-40 33
Table B2. Differential from Base in U.S. Annual Average Values from 2015-40 when Exports are Added 34
Table B3. Differential (%) from Base in U.S. Annual Average Values from 2015-40 when Exports are Added 35
Table B4. U.S. Annual Averages Values from 2015-25 36
Table B5. Differential from Base in U.S. Annual Average Values from 2015-25 when Exports are Added 37
Table B6. Differential (%) from Base in U.S. Annual Average Values from 2015-25 when Exports are Added 38
Table B7. U.S. Annual Averages Values from 2026-40 39
Table B8. Differential from Base in U.S. Annual Average Values from 2026-40 when Exports are Added 40
Table B9. Differential (%) from Base in U.S. Annual Average Values from 2026-40 when Exports are Added 41