Contents
1. Introduction 5
2. Government Response 10
National Transport Plan 10
The cost of HS2 10
Who will pay for HS2? 12
Demand and capacity 13
Performance 13
Commuter Services 14
Interrcity Serv ices 17
Freight 21
Consideration of alternative rail investment 22
Effect on the UK econoomy 25
Prioritisation 27
Eviidence 28
Summary 30
Figure 1.1. Passenger trip growth on key WCML flows (1994/95 to 2013/14) 6
Figure 1.2. Passenger trains per hour on leading fast European railways 7
Figure 1.3. Journey time improvements and evening peak seat capacity increases with HS2 (Western Leg) 8
Figure 1.4. Journey time improvements and evening peak seat capacity increases with HS2 (Estern let) 8
Figure 1.5. Journey time improvements and evening peak seat capacity increases with HS2 (Midlands and North) 9
Figure 2.1. HS2 Route Characteristics 11
Figure 2.2. Public Performance Measure (PPM) Moving Annual Average of Virgin and London Midland 14
Figure 2.3. Indicative loadings on midweek moring peak commuter services arriving at London Euston in 2033/34 16
Figure 2.4. Indicative loadings on midweek evening commuter services departing at London Euston in 2033/34 17
Figure 2.5. Forecast growth in long distance demand in HS2 Economic Case against recent trends 18
Figure 2.6. Indicative loadings on midweek morning peak intercity services arriving at London Euston in 2033/34 20
Figure 2.7. Indicative loadings on midweek evening intercity services departing London Euston in 2033/34 21
Figure 2.8. Freight growth projections 22
Figure 2.9. Long distance train paths from London on the West Coast Main Line and HS2 24
Figure 2.10. Deliverability of alternatives 25
Figure 2.11. Selected UK rail business flows 2013/14 (Red flows served by Phase One, Blue flows by Phase Two) 27
Figure 2.12. Investing in Britain's future 28
Figure 2.13. BCR distribution with standard Demand Cap (2036) 31
Figure 2.14. BCR distribution with 2049 Demand Cap 31