Contents
Contacts 3
Preface 4
Executive Summary 8
Key analysis results 9
Caveats 11
Introduction and Background 15
Export policy assumptions 18
Options for accommodating increased crude oil production 19
Caveats regarding the analysis 20
Experience in accommodating increased domestic crude oil production since 2009 21
Results 28
Overview and organization 28
Crude oil prices 29
Petroleum product prices 35
Domestic crude oil production 35
Petroleum trade and its components 38
Capacity additions, throughput, and refiner and producer revenues 44
Appendix A. Congressional Requests for Information on the Effects of Removing Restrictions on U.S. Crude Oil Exports 49
Appendix B. Supplemental Tables of Results 52
Table ES-1. Summary results for U.S. petroleum markets with (res) and without (unr) crude oil export restrictions across EIA cases in 2025 13
Table 1. EIA studies and activities related to implications of increased crude oil production and possible relaxation or removal of crude oil export restrictions 15
Table 2. Comparison of baseline assumptions in the Reference, Low Oil Price, High Oil and Gas Resource, and High Oil and Gas Resource/Low Oil Price cases 16
Table 3. Crude oil and petroleum product prices with (res) and without (unr) crude oil export restrictions in 2025 across cases 34
Table B-1. Summary results for four cases with (res) and without (unr) current crude oil export restrictions in 2015 53
Table B-2. Summary results for four cases with (res) and without (unr) current crude oil export restrictions in 2020 55
Table B-3. Summary results for four cases with (res) and without (unr) current crude oil export restrictions in 2025 57
Figure 1. Brent crude oil price projections by case with current crude oil export restrictions, 2010-25 17
Figure 2. Total U.S. crude oil production projections by case with current crude oil export restrictions, 2010-25 18
Figure 3. Annual U.S. crude oil production, 1950-2015 22
Figure 4. Monthly average Brent and WTI prices, January 2010 to June 2015 23
Figure 5. Annual U.S. crude oil imports by type, 2010-15 24
Figure 6. Annual U.S. refinery gross inputs, 2000-14 25
Figure 7. Annual U.S. petroleum product trade, 1990-2014 26
Figure 8. Annual U.S. net crude oil imports, 2000-14 27
Figure 9a. Brent crude oil price projections by case with current crude oil export restrictions, 2010-25 30
Figure 9b. Brent-WTI crude oil price spread by case under current crude oil export restrictions, 2010-25 31
Figure 9c. Brent-WTI crude oil price spread by case with the removal of current crude oil export restrictions, 2010-25 31
Figure 10a. Difference in West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices by case from removing current crude oil export restrictions, 2010-25 32
Figure 10b. Difference in Brent crude oil prices by case from removing current crude oil export restrictions, 2010-25 33
Figure 11a. Total U.S. crude oil production by case with current crude oil export restrictions, 2010-25 36
Figure 11b. Difference in domestic crude oil production by case from removing current crude oil export restrictions, 2010-25 37
Figure 12a. Combined U.S. crude oil and petroleum product net export projections by case with current crude oil export restrictions, 2010-25 39
Figure 12b1/b2. U.S. crude oil and petroleum product net export projections by case with current crude oil export restrictions, 2010-25 40
Figure 12c1/c2. U.S. crude oil and petroleum product gross export projections by case with current crude oil export restrictions, 2010-25 41
Figure 12d1/d2. U.S. crude oil and petroleum product gross import projections by case with current crude oil export restrictions, 2010-25 42
Figure 13a. Difference in combined U.S. crude oil and petroleum product net exports by case from removing current crude oil export restrictions, 2010-25 43
Figure 13b1/b2. Difference in U.S. crude oil and petroleum product net exports by case from removing current crude oil export restrictions, 2010-25 44
Figure 14a. Total U.S. crude oil distillation capacity projections by case with current crude oil export restrictions, 2010-25 45
Figure 14b. Total U.S. crude oil distillation throughput projections by case with current crude oil export restrictions, 2010-25 46
Figure 15a. Difference in the average 3-2-1 crack spread at U.S. refineries by case from removing current crude oil export restrictions, 2010-25 47
Figure 15b. Difference in total U.S. crude oil distillation capacity by case from removing current crude oil export restrictions, 2010-25 48
Figure 15c. Difference in total U.S. crude oil distillation throughput by case from removing current crude oil export restrictions, 2010-25 48