Contents
1. Background and Analytical Framework 4
Background 4
Analytical Framework 5
2. Results 8
2.1. Overview 8
2.2. Low Production Case 10
2.3. High Production, Current Crude Export Restrictions Case 10
2.4. High Production, No Crude Export Restrictions Case 10
3. Appendix 12
Introduction 15
Background 15
Key Study Assumptions and Data Table Descriptions 16
Input Table Descriptions 17
Output Table Descriptions 19
Low Production Case - Background Assumptions 22
High Production Base Case - Background Assumptions 24
High Production Export Case - Background Assumptions 26
Appendix Tables - Key Logistical Assumptions 27
Table 1. EIA studies/activities related to implications of increased crude production and relaxation of crude export restrictions 5
Table 2. Crude quality types 6
Table 3. Scenario results 9
Figure 1. Crude production regions 6
Figure 2. Crude production by region 8
Figure 3. Crude production by quality type 8
Figure 4. Change 2025 versus 2013 11
Table I-1. U.S. Crude Production Forecast-EIA Low Production Case 30
Table I-2. U.S. Crude Production Forecast-EIA High Production Case 31
Table I-3. Canadian Crude Production Forecast, MBPD 32
Table I-4. U.S. Refinery Capacities-2013 33
Table I-5. Projected U.S. Refinery Projects Through 2019 36
Table I-6. 2013 Charge and Yield Data by PADDs 37
Table I-7. U.S. Domestic Petroleum Product Demand-Low Production Case 38
Table I-8. U.S. Domestic Petroleum Product Demand-High Production Case 40
Table I-9. Census Regions to PADD Conversion 42
Table I-10. EIA Product Demand-Low Production Case 43
Table I-11. EIA Product Demand-High Production Case 44
Table I-12. TM&C Natural Gas Liquids Forecast 45
Table I-13. Other Refining and Logistic Assumptions 46
Table II-1. EIA Low Production Crude Slate for Base and Export Cases-MPBD Crude Oil Supply and Demand Balance 49
Table II-2. EIA Low Production Crude Slate for Base and Export Cases-MPBD Crude Oil Supply and Demand Balance-2015 50
Table II-3. EIA Low Production Crude Slate for Base and Export Cases-MPBD Crude Oil Supply and Demand Balance-2020 51
Table II-4. EIA Low Production Crude Slate for Base and Export Cases-MPBD Crude Oil Supply and Demand Balance-2025 52
Table II-5. U.S. and Canadian Distillation Capacities 53
Table II-6. U.S. and Canadian Utilization Rates 54
Table II-7. PADD I Charge and Yield Data 55
Table II-8. PADD II Charge and Yield Data 56
Table II-9. PADD III Charge and Yield Data 57
Table II-10. PADD IV Charge and Yield Data 58
Table II-11. PADD V Charge and Yield Data 59
Table II-12. U.S. Charge and Yield Data 60
Table II-13. PADD I Product Supply and Demand Balance-MBPD 61
Table II-14. PADD II Product Supply and Demand Balance-MBPD 62
Table II-15. PADD III Product Supply and Demand Balance-MBPD 63
Table II-16. PADD IV Product Supply and Demand Balance-MBPD 64
Table II-17. PADD V Product Supply and Demand Balance-MBPD 65
Table II-18. U.S. Product Supply and Demand Balance-MBPD 66
Table II-19. Crude Oil Flows, MBPD 67
Table II-20. Required Crude Oil Logistic Improvements, MBPD 68
Table II-21. Gasoline Supply and Demand Balance-MBPD 71
Table II-22. Jet/Kerosene Supply and Demand Balance-MBPD 72
Table II-23. Distillate Supply and Demand Balance-MBPD 73
Table II-24. Residual Fuel Supply and Demand Balance-MBPD 74
Table II-25. Other Products1 Supply and Demand Balance-MBPD 75
Table II-26. Total U.S. Refined Products Supply and Demand Balance-MBPD 76
Table II-27. U.S. and Canadian Crude Oil Exports-MBPD 77
Table II-28. U.S. Product Exports-MBPD 78
Table II-29. Crude Price Forecast Low Production Case 79
Table III-1. EIA High Production Base Case-MPBD Crude Oil Supply and Demand Balance-2013 81
Table III-2. EIA High Production Base Case-MPBD Crude Oil Supply and Demand Balance-2015 82
Table III-3. EIA High Production Base Case-MPBD Crude Oil Supply and Demand Balance-2020 83
Table III-4. EIA High Production Base Case-MPBD Crude Oil Supply and Demand Balance-2025 84
Table III-5. U.S. and Canadian Distillation Capacities 85
Table III-6. U.S. and Canadian Utilization Rates 86
Table III-7. PADD I Charge and Yield Data 87
Table III-8. PADD II Charge and Yield Data 88
Table III-9. PADD III Charge and Yield Data 89
Table III-10. PADD IV Charge and Yield Data 90
Table III-11. PADD V Charge and Yield Data 91
Table III-12. U.S. Charge and Yield Data 92
Table III-13. PADD I Refinery Product Supply and Demand Balance-MBPD 93
Table III-14. PADD II Refinery Product Supply and Demand Balance-MBPD 94
Table III-15. PADD III Refinery Product Supply and Demand Balance-MBPD 95
Table III-16. PADD IV Refinery Product Supply and Demand Balance-MBPD 96
Table III-17. PADD V Refinery Product Supply and Demand Balance-MBPD 97
Table III-18. U.S. Refined Product Supply and Demand Balance-MBPD 98
Table III-19. Crude Oil Flows, MBPD 99
Table III-20. Required Crude Oil Logistic Improvements, MBPD 100
Table III-21. Gasoline Supply and Demand Balance-MBPD 103
Table III-22. Jet/Kerosene Supply and Demand Balance-MBPD 104
Table III-23. Distillate Supply and Demand Balance-MBPD 105
Table III-24. Residual Fuel Supply and Demand Balance-MBPD 106
Table III-25. Other Products1 Supply and Demand Balance-MBPD 107
Table III-26. Total U.S. Products Supply and Demand Balance-MBPD 108
Table III-27. U.S. and Canadian Crude Oil Exports-MBPD 109
Table III-28. U.S. Product Exports-MBPD 110
Table III-29. Crude Price Forecast High Production Base Case 111
Table IV-1. EIA High Production Export Case-MPBD Crude Oil Supply and Demand Balance-2013 113
Table IV-2. EIA High Production Export Case-MPBD Crude Oil Supply and Demand Balance-2015 114
Table IV-3. EIA High Production Export Case-MPBD Crude Oil Supply and Demand Balance-2020 115
Table IV-4. EIA High Production Export Case-MPBD Crude Oil Supply and Demand Balance-2025 116
Table IV-5. U.S. and Canadian Distillation Capacities 117
Table IV-6. U.S. and Canadian Utilization Rates 118
Table IV-7. PADD I Charge and Yield Data 119
Table IV-8. PADD II Charge and Yield Data 120
Table IV-9. PADD III Charge and Yield Data 121
Table IV-10. PADD IV Charge and Yield Data 122
Table IV-11. PADD V Charge and Yield Data 123
Table IV-12. U.S. Charge and Yield Data 124
Table IV-13. PADD I Refinery Product Supply and Demand Balance-MBPD 125
Table IV-14. PADD II Refinery Product Supply and Demand Balance-MBPD 126
Table IV-15. PADD III Refinery Product Supply and Demand Balance-MBPD 127
Table IV-16. PADD IV Refinery Product Supply and Demand Balance-MBPD 128
Table IV-17. PADD V Refinery Product Supply and Demand Balance-MBPD 129
Table IV-18. U.S. Product Supply and Demand Balance-MBPD 130
Table IV-19. Crude Oil Flows, MBPD 131
Table IV-20. Required Crude Oil Logistic Improvements, MBPD 132
Table IV-21. Gasoline Supply and Demand Balance-MBPD 135
Table IV-22. Jet/Kerosene Supply and Demand Balance-MBPD 136
Table IV-23. Distillate Supply and Demand Balance-MBPD 137
Table IV-24. Residual Fuel Supply and Demand Balance-MBPD 138
Table IV-25. Other Products Supply and Demand Balance-MBPD 139
Table IV-26. Total U.S. Refined Products Supply and Demand Balance-MBPD 140
Table IV-27. U.S. and Canadian Crude Oil Exports-MBPD 141
Table IV-28. U.S. Product Exports-MBPD 142
Table IV-29. Crude Price Forecast High Production Export Case 143
Appendix 1. PADD I Rail Offloading Facilities 145
Appendix 2. Permian Basin Exit Pipelines 146
Appendix 3. Cushing, OK and Patoka, IL Exit Pipelines 147
Appendix 4. PADD V Rail Offloading Facilities 148
Appendix 5. Western Canada Exit Pipelines 149