Contents
Crude Oil 1
Petroleum Products 5
Natural Gas 9
Figure 1. Historical crude oil front month futures prices 1
Figure 2. Crude oil front month-13th month futures prices spread 2
Figure 3. U.S. crude oil price differentials 3
Figure 4. Monthly average aggregate WTI option open interest ratio 3
Figure 5. Contributions to percent change in nonresidential investment 4
Figure 6. Crude oil implied volatility 5
Figure 7. Probability of the February 2016 WTI contract expriring above price levels 5
Figure 8. Historical RBOB futures prices and crack spread 6
Figure 9. Historical ULSD futures prices and crack spread 7
Figure 10. Clean tanker rates, Arab Gulf origin 8
Figure 11. RBOB and ULSD implied volatility 8
Figure 12. Probability of February 2016 retail gasoline exceeding different price levels at expiration 9
Figure 13. HDD minus normal and CDD minus normal 10
Figure 14. Marcellus area spot prices and Henry Hub 10
Figure 15. Natural gas historical and implied volatility 11
Figure 16. Probability of the Junuary 2016 Henry Hub contract expiring above price levels 11