Title page
Contents
Preface 4
Executive Summary 14
World energy markets by fuel type 14
Liquid fuels 15
Natural gas 15
Coal 16
Electricity 17
World delivered energy use by sector 17
Residential and commercial buildings 17
Industrial 18
Transportation 18
World carbon dioxide emissions 18
Chapter 1. World energy demand and economic outlook 20
Overview 20
EIA's handling of non-U.S. policies in the International Energy Outlook 20
Outlook for world energy consumption by source 22
Delivered energy consumption by end-use sector 24
Buildings sector 24
EIA's handling of discrepancies in international energy data 25
Industrial sector 25
Transportation sector 26
World economic outlook 26
OECD economies 26
Non-OECD economies 28
Alternative cases in IEO2016 29
Alternative economic growth cases 29
Alternative oil price cases 30
Chapter 2. Petroleum and other liquid fuels 31
Overview 31
Shale oil and tight gas: Recent developments outside North America 33
IEO2016 Reference case 34
World petroleum and other liquid fuels consumption 34
Effects of regulation on world demand for residual fuel oil 35
OECD 36
Non-OECD 37
Industrial CO2 emissions and petroleum coke use in refineries 37
World petroleum and other liquid fuels supplies 39
OPEC crude oil and lease condensate supply 39
Non-OPEC crude and lease condensate supply 40
Other liquids supply 40
Iran's return to the international oil market 41
Foreign investment in Algeria's hydrocarbon development 42
Update on Mexico's petroleum sector reforms 44
New biofuels from hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids 45
Low Oil Price case 46
High Oil Price case 46
Reserves 47
Chapter 3. Natural gas 49
Overview 49
OECD natural gas consumption 50
OECD Americas 50
OECD Europe 51
OECD Asia 51
Natural gas prices in Asia 52
Non-OECD natural gas consumption 53
Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia 53
Non-OECD Asia 53
Middle East 54
Africa 54
Non-OECD Americas 54
World natural gas production 55
OECD production 56
OECD Americas 56
OECD Europe 56
OECD Asia 56
Non-OECD production 57
Middle East 57
Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia 57
Africa 58
Non-OECD Asia 58
Shale gas development in China: Government investment and decreasing well costs 59
Non-OECD Americas 61
World natural gas trade 61
Global LNG trade and supply 61
OECD natural gas trade 63
Liquefied natural gas: Growing use of floating storage and regasification units 63
OECD Americas 64
U.S. natural gas exports to Mexico 65
OECD Europe 65
OECD Asia 65
Non-OECD natural gas trade 66
Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia 66
Middle East 66
Potential for increased natural gas exports from Iran following the end of international sanctions 67
Africa 68
Non-OECD Asia 69
Non-OECD Americas 70
World natural gas reserves 70
Chapter 4. Coal 73
Overview 73
World coal consumption 74
OECD coal consumption 74
OECD Americas 75
OECD Europe 75
OECD Asia 75
Non-OECD coal consumption 76
Non-OECD Asia 76
Structural transformations in China's energy economy 76
Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia 80
Africa 80
World coal production 80
India's coal supply chain: Challenges and reforms 80
Coal production challenges 81
Private sector coal development in transition 82
Permitting issues and environmental complications 83
Rail infrastructure issues 83
Land acquisition challenges 84
World coal trade 84
Imports 84
Exports 87
Recent developments in world coal trade 87
Coal imports 88
Coal exports 89
Uncertainties in future prospects for international coal trade 89
World coal reserves 90
Chapter 5. Electricity 93
Overview 93
Electricity generation by source 95
Coal 95
Natural gas 96
Petroleum and other liquid fuels 96
Renewable resources 96
World production of solar photovoltaic modules 97
Plans for hydroelectric generation capacity additions in Southeast Asia 98
World markets for wood pellets 99
Nuclear power 101
Variability in electricity generation capacity factors by region and fuel 101
Regional electricity markets in non-OECD Asia 103
China 103
India 105
Electricity transmission and distribution system losses in India 105
Vietnam 108
Economic transition 109
Future electricity generation 110
Challenges 110
Chapter 6. Buildings sector energy consumption 113
Overview 113
Residential sector 113
OECD residential energy consumption 113
OECD Americas 113
OECD Europe 114
OECD Asia 114
Non-OECD residential energy consumption 114
Non-OECD Asia 115
Effects of urbanization on energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions in China 115
China's policies to increase energy efficiency in buildings 117
Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia 118
Other non-OECD 118
Commercial sector 119
OECD commercial energy consumption 119
OECD Americas 120
OECD Europe 121
OECD Asia 121
Non-OECD commercial energy consumption 121
Non-OECD Asia 122
Other non-OECD 122
Electricity demand for space cooling in India 123
Chapter 7. Industrial sector energy consumption 125
Overview 125
Regional gross output and industrial energy consumption 126
Energy-intensive industries 129
Regional focus: OECD Europe and non-OECD Asia 130
OECD Europe 131
Non-OECD Asia 131
China 131
Steel energy demand growth in China 131
Steel and aluminum recycling in China 132
Chemicals industry growth and coal consumption 133
Urbanization and industrial energy demand in China 134
Other non-OECD Asia 135
Role of electricity in changing patterns of non-OECD Asia industrial energy use 136
Chapter 8. Transportation sector energy consumption 139
Overview 139
Transportation sector energy consumption by fuel 139
OECD transportation sector energy consumption 140
Motor vehicle fuel economy and emissions standards by country 140
Non-OECD transportation sector energy consumption 141
Non-OECD Asia 141
Other non-OECD 141
Transportation sector energy consumption by mode 141
World transportation energy use for passenger travel 143
World stocks of passenger jet aircraft 144
Transportation sector travel demand 145
Variations in air passenger travel by region and income level 147
Chapter 9. Energy-related CO2 emissions 151
Overview 151
Policies to limit CO2 emissions in the United States and China 152
CO2 emissions by fuel 153
Uncertainties in projecting European Union emissions reductions 154
CO2 emissions by region 155
U.S. Clean Power Plan Rule 156
IEO2016 factors influencing trends in energy-related CO2 emissions 157
The Kaya decomposition of emissions trends 158
Appendix A. Reference case projections 173
Appendix B. High Economic Growth case projections 189
Appendix C. Low Economic Growth case projections 192
Appendix D. High Oil Price case projections 195
Appendix E. Low Oil Price case projections 199
Appendix F. Reference case projections by end-use sector and country grouping 203
Appendix G. Projections of petroleum and other liquids production in three cases 223
Appendix H. Reference case projections for electricity capacity and generation by fuel 233
Appendix I. Reference case projections for natural gas production 256
Appendix J. Kaya Identity factor projections 261
Appendix K. Comparisons with International Energy Agency and IEO2013 projections 266
Appendix L. Models used to generate the IEO2016 projections 270
Appendix M. Regional definitions 272
Table 1-1. World energy consumption by country grouping, 2012-40 20
Table 1-2. World gross domestic product by country grouping, 2012-40 27
Table 2-1. North Sea Brent crude oil spot prices in three cases, 2012-40 32
Table 2-2. World petroleum and other liquid fuels consumption by region, IEO2016 Reference case, 1990-2040 36
Table 2-3. Pemex bid Round One process and timeline as of December 2015 44
Table 3-1. World natural gas production by region and country in the Reference case, 2012-40 55
Table 3-2. World natural gas reserves by country as of January 1, 2016 71
Table 4-1. World coal production by region, 2012-40 81
Table 4-2. World coal flows by importing and exporting regions and coal type, Reference case, 2013, 2020, and 2040 85
Table 4-3. World recoverable coal reserves as of January 1, 2012 91
Table 5-1. OECD and non-OECD net electricity generation by energy source, 2012-40 94
Table 5-2. OECD and non-OECD net renewable electricity generation by energy source, 2010-40 97
Table 6-1. Annual average percent change in commercial sector delivered energy consumption by region 119
Table 7-1. World industrial sector: major groupings and representative industries 125
Table 7-2. World industrial sector delivered energy consumption by region and energy source, 2012-40 126
Table 7-3. Average annual growth in gross output by region and sector, 2012-40 127
Table 9-1. World energy-related carbon dioxide emissions by fuel type, 1990-2040 151
Table 9-2. World energy-related carbon dioxide emissions by region and country in the Reference case with and without the U.S. Clean Power Plan (CPP), 1990-2040 155
Table 9-3. Average annual changes in Kaya factors by region and country in the Reference case with and without the U.S. Clean Power Plan (CPP), 2012-40 159
Figure ES-1. World energy consumption by country grouping, 2012-40 14
Figure ES-2. Total world energy consumption by energy source, 1990-2040 14
Figure ES-3. Petroleum and other liquid fuels production by region and type in the Reference case, 2000-2040 15
Figure ES-4. World increase in natural gas production, 2012-40 16
Figure ES-5. Coal consumption in China, India, and the United States, 1990-2040 16
Figure ES-6. World net electricity generation by energy source, 2012-40 17
Figure ES-7. World transportation sector delivered energy consumption by energy source, 2012-40 18
Figure ES-8. World energy-related carbon dioxide emissions by fuel type, 1990-2040 19
Figure 1-1. World energy consumption, 1990-2040 20
Figure 1-2. World energy consumption by region, 1990-2040 21
Figure 1-3. World total gross domestic product, 1990-2040 21
Figure 1-4. Non-OECD energy consumption by region, 1990-2040 22
Figure 1-5. World energy consumption by energy source, 1990-2040 22
Figure 1-6. World net electricity generation by energy source, 2012-40 23
Figure 1-7. World net electricity generation from renewable energy sources, 2012 and 2040 24
Figure 1-8. World nuclear electricity generation capacity by region, 2012 and 2040 24
Figure 1-9. OECD real gross domestic product growth rates, 2012-40 27
Figure 1-10. Non-OECD real gross domestic product growth rates, 2012-40 28
Figure 1-11. World energy consumption by region in three economic growth cases, 2012, 2025, and 2040 29
Figure 1-12. World energy consumption by fuel in three oil price cases, 2012, 2025, and 2040 30
Figure 2-1. North Sea Brent crude oil spot prices in three cases, 1990-2040 32
Figure 2-2. World tight oil production in the IEO2016 Reference case, 2012, 2020, and 2040 32
Figure 2-3. EIA/ARI assessments of shale gas and tight oil resources in Argentina's Nequen Basin and China's Sichuan Basin 33
Figure 2-4. Liquid fuels supply and demand and North Sea Brent crude oil equilibrium prices in three cases, 2040 34
Figure 2-5. World consumption of residual fuel oil,1986-2012 35
Figure 2-6. Current and proposed Marpol regulations on sulfur content of residual fuel oil, 2000-2027 35
Figure 2-7. OECD and non-OECD petroleum and other liquid fuels consumption, IEO2016 Reference case, 1990-2040 36
Figure 2-8. Non-OECD petroleum and other liquid fuels consumption by region, IEO2016 Reference case, 1990-2040 36
Figure 2-9. Energy consumption in U.S. and China refineries by fuel type, 2012 38
Figure 2-10. Petroleum and other liquid fuels production by region and type in the IEO2016 Reference case, 2000-2040 39
Figure 2-11. OPEC crude and lease condensate production by region in the IEO2016 Reference case, 2012, 2020, and 2040 40
Figure 2-12. World other liquid fuels production by source, 2012, 2020, and 2040 40
Figure 2-13. Crude oil production in Algeria, 2005-14 42
Figure 2-14. Natural gas production in Algeria, 2005-14 42
Figure 2-15. Oil and natural gas basins and pipeline infrastructure in Algeria 43
Figure 2-16. World production of renewable diesel fuels from hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids, 2011-14 45
Figure 2-17. World petroleum liquid fuels consumption in three cases, 2012 and 2040 46
Figure 2-18. World petroleum and other liquid fuels production in three cases, 2012 and 2040 47
Figure 3-1. World natural gas consumption, 2012-40 49
Figure 3-2. World increase in natural gas production by country grouping, 2012-40 49
Figure 3-3. Natural gas production by type in China, Canada, and the United States, 2012 and 2040 50
Figure 3-4. OECD Americas natural gas consumption by country, 2012-40 50
Figure 3-5. OECD Americas change in natural gas consumption by country and end-use sector, 2012-40 50
Figure 3-6. OECD Europe natural gas consumption by end-use sector, 2012-40 51
Figure 3-7. OECD Asia natural gas consumption by country and end-use sector, 2012-40 51
Figure 3-8. World crude oil, natural gas, and liquefied natural gas prices, 2010-15 52
Figure 3-9. Asia Pacific natural gas trade by country and contract type, 2010 and 2014 52
Figure 3-10. Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia natural gas consumption, 2012-40 53
Figure 3-11. Non-OECD Asia natural gas consumption by region, 2012-40 53
Figure 3-12. Middle East natural gas consumption by end-use sector, 2012-40 54
Figure 3-13. Africa natural gas consumption by end use sector, 2012-40 54
Figure 3-14. Non-OECD Americas natural gas consumption by end-use sector, 2012-40 55
Figure 3-15. OECD natural gas production by country and region, 2012-40 56
Figure 3-16. OECD Europe natural gas production, 2012-40 56
Figure 3-17. Middle East natural gas production by country, 2012-40 57
Figure 3-18. Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia natural gas production, 2012-40 57
Figure 3-19. Africa natural gas production by region, 2012-40 58
Figure 3-20. Non-OECD Asia natural gas production by source, 2012-40 58
Figure 3-21. China natural gas production by type, 2012-40 58
Figure 3-22. Cost of drilling a shale gas well in the Sichuan Basin, 2013 and 2015 59
Figure 3-23. Cost components of shale gas well development in the Sichuan Basin, 2015 59
Figure 3-24. EIA/ARI assessment of shale gas and tight oil resources in China's Sichuan Basin 60
Figure 3-25. Non-OECD Americas natural gas production, 2012-40 61
Figure 3-26. Global LNG trade by contract type, 2010 and 2014 62
Figure 3-27. Global LNG capacity additions by country, 2015-19 63
Figure 3-28. Floating LNG regasification share of total world regasification capacity, 2006-16 64
Figure 3-29. Floating LNG regasification capacity by region, 2006-16 64
Figure 3-30. OECD Americas net natural gas trade, 2012-40 64
Figure 3-31. OECD Asia net natural gas trade, 2012-40 65
Figure 3-32. Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia net natural gas trade, 2012-40 66
Figure 3-33. Middle East net natural gas trade, 2012-40 66
Figure 3-34. Africa net natural gas trade, 2012-40 68
Figure 3-35. Non-OECD Asia net natural gas trade, 2012-40 69
Figure 3-36. Non-OECD Americas net natural gas trade, 2012-40 70
Figure 3-37. World proved natural gas reserves by region, 1980-2016 70
Figure 3-38. World proved natural gas reserves by region as of January 1, 2016 71
Figure 4-1. World coal consumption by region, 1980-2040 73
Figure 4-2. Coal consumption in China, the UnitedStates, and India, 1990-2040 73
Figure 4-3. Coal share of world energy consumption by sector, 2012, 2020, and 2040 74
Figure 4-4. World coal production, 2012-40 74
Figure 4-5. OECD coal consumption by region, 1980, 2012, 2020, and 2040 75
Figure 4-6. Non-OECD coal consumption by region, 1980, 2012, 2020, and 2040 76
Figure 4-7. China coal consumption and net imports, 2000-2014 76
Figure 4-8. China coal prices, 2004-14 77
Figure 4-9. Economic composition of gross domestic product in China and developed economies by sector, 1970-2014 77
Figure 4-10. Annual changes in production from China's coal-intensive industries, 2003-14 78
Figure 4-11. Coal consumption in the United States and China and in China's electric power and industrial sectors, 2012, 2020, and 2040 79
Figure 4-12. Coal share of China's energy consumption by sector, 2012, 2020, and 2040 79
Figure 4-13. India's domestic coal consumption, production, and production targets by fiscal year, 2004-20 82
Figure 4-14. India's coal production and coal-fired electricity generation capacity by state, FY2013-14 84
Figure 4-15. World coal imports by major importing region, 1995-2040 85
Figure 4-16. World coal trade by coal type, 1995-2014 88
Figure 4-17. Annual changes in total world coal trade, 1995-2014 88
Figure 4-18. World coal trade by importing and exporting regions, 2008 and 2013 88
Figure 4-19. Average annual steam coal export prices by country of origin, 1990-2014 90
Figure 4-20. Average annual coking coal export prices by country of origin, 1990-2014 90
Figure 5-1. OECD and non-OECD net electricity generation, 1990-2040 93
Figure 5-2. Growth in world electricity generation and GDP, 2005-40 93
Figure 5-3. World net electricity generation by fuel, 2012-40 95
Figure 5-4. World net electricity generation from renewable power by fuel, 2012-40 96
Figure 5-5. World solar photovoltaic manufacturing production and capability, 2006-13 98
Figure 5-6. World installed solar photovoltaic capacity by country, 2006-12, and projected total installed capacity in 2020 98
Figure 5-7. Hydroelectric generating capacity in Southeast Asia, 2012, and planned additions, 2012-20, by country 99
Figure 5-8. Top five destinations for wood pellets exported from Canada and the United States, 2012-14 100
Figure 5-9. Average annual capacity factors for electricity generators by IEO region and energy source, 2008-12 101
Figure 5-10. Non-OECD Asia electricity generation fuel mix by region, 2012 and 2040 103
Figure 5-11. China renewable electricity generation capacity in the IEO2016 Reference case, 2015-20, and aggregate government targets for solar, wind, and hydropower electricity generation capacity 104
Figure 5-12. China electricity generation by fuel source, 2012-40 105
Figure 5-13. India electricity generation by fuel source, 2012-40 105
Figure 5-14. World electricity transmission and distribution losses by selected countries and regions, 2001 and 2013 106
Figure 5-15. Aggregated technical and commercial losses of Indian utilities that sell directly to consumers, 2003-13 107
Figure 5-16. Installed electricity generation capacity in Vietnam, 2014 108
Figure 5-17. Electricity demand in Vietnam, 2010-30 109
Figure 5-18. Vietnam electricity generation capacity by fuel, 2015-30 110
Figure 5-19. Vietnam projected electricity generation capacity by fuel, 2030 111
Figure 6-1. Average annual change in OECD residential sector energy consumption, 2012-40 113
Figure 6-2. Average annual change in OECD residential sector energy consumption per capita, 2012-40 114
Figure 6-3. Residential sector energy consumption in selected OECD regions by energy source, 2012 and 2040 114
Figure 6-4. Average annual change in non-OECD residential sector energy consumption, 2012-40 115
Figure 6-5. Average annual change in non-OECD residential sector energy consumption per capita, 2012-40 115
Figure 6-6. Residential energy consumption and urban population growth in China, 1990-2012 116
Figure 6-7. China's residential sector energy consumption per capita and per thousand dollars of GDP, 1990-2012 116
Figure 6-8. Residential sector energy consumption in selected non-OECD regions by energy source, 2012 and 2040 116
Figure 6-9. Buildings energy consumption in China, 1998-2012 117
Figure 6-10. World commercial sector delivered energy consumption by energy source, 2012-40 119
Figure 6-11. OECD commercial sector delivered energy consumption by energy source, 2012-40 120
Figure 6-12. Average annual change in OECD GDP per capita, 2012-40 120
Figure 6-13. Average annual change in OECD commercial sector energy consumption, 2012-40 120
Figure 6-14. Ratio of OECD commercial sector energy consumption to industrial sector energy consumption by region, 2012 and 2040 121
Figure 6-15. Average annual change in non-OECD commercial sector energy consumption, 2012-40 122
Figure 6-16. Average annual change in non-OECD GDP per capita, 2012-40 122
Figure 6-17. Non-OECD commercial sector delivered energy consumption by energy source, 2012-40 122
Figure 6-18. Estimated cooling degree days per year and populations in selected Indian and U.S. cities, 2011 123
Figure 7-1. Global gross output by industrial subsector, 2012 and 2040 126
Figure 7-2. OECD industrial sector delivered energy consumption by energy source, 2012-40 128
Figure 7-3. Non-OECD industrial sector delivered energy consumption by energy source, 2012-40 128
Figure 7-4. Energy-intensive industry shares of total OECD industrial sector energy consumption, 2012 and 2040 129
Figure 7-5. Energy-intensive industry shares of total non-OECD industrial sector energy consumption, 2012 and 2040 129
Figure 7-6. OECD Europe industrial sector delivered energy consumption by energy source, 2012-40 131
Figure 7-7. Steel and aluminum production from primary and secondary sources in China and the United States, 2012 133
Figure 7-8. Coal and electricity consumption in China's steel industry, 2012-40 133
Figure 7-9. Industrial energy consumption and urban population growth in China, 1990-2012 134
Figure 7-10. Comparisons of energy use per capita and per dollar of gross domestic product in China and the OECD, 1990-2012 135
Figure 7-11. Fuel and feedstock consumption in China's bulk chemicals industry, 2012-40 135
Figure 7-12. Non-OECD Asia (excluding China and India) industrial sector delivered energy consumption by energy source, 2012-40 135
Figure 7-13. Electricity shares of industrial sector energy demand in China, the Philippines and the OECD, 1975-2012 136
Figure 7-14. Industrial sector electricity demand in China by industry type, 1971-2012 137
Figure 7-15. Industrial sector electricity demand in the Philippines by industry type, 1971-2012 137
Figure 8-1. Delivered transportation energy consumption by country grouping, 2012-40 139
Figure 8-2. World transportation sector delivered energy consumption by energy source, 2010-40 139
Figure 8-3. Annual average growth in delivered transportation energy consumption by OECD region, 2012-40 140
Figure 8-4. Average annual growth in delivered transportation energy consumption by non-OECD region, 2012-40 141
Figure 8-5. World transportation sector delivered energy consumption by passenger modes, 2012 and 2040 142
Figure 8-6. World transportation sector delivered energy consumption by freight modes, 2012 and 2040 142
Figure 8-7. Change in OECD and non-OECD delivered transportation energy consumption by passenger mode, 2012-40 142
Figure 8-8. World transportation energy consumption by mode, 2012 143
Figure 8-9. Transportation energy consumption by mode in selected countries and regions, 2012 143
Figure 8-10. World passenger jet aircraft stocks by region and type, 2013 144
Figure 8-11. Gross domestic product (thousand 2010 dollars per person) and aircraft stock per capita (aircraft per million people) by region, 2013 145
Figure 8-12. Change in OECD and non-OECD delivered transportation energy consumption by freight mode, 2012-40 145
Figure 8-13. GDP per capita in selected regions and countries, 2012-40 145
Figure 8-14. Passenger travel per capita in selected regions and countries, 2012-40 146
Figure 8-15. Light-duty vehicles per thousand people in selected regions and countries, 2012-40 146
Figure 8-16. OECD and non-OECD passenger travel by selected travel modes, 2012-40 146
Figure 8-17. World air passenger travel by region, 2013 147
Figure 8-18. World domestic and international air passenger travel by region, 2013 148
Figure 8-19. OECD and non-OECD gross domestic product per capita 148
Figure 8-20. OECD and non-OECD industrial gross output per capita, excluding service industries, 2012-40 149
Figure 8-21. OECD and non-OECD freight movement per capita by truck, rail, and domestic marine vessels, 2010-40 149
Figure 9-1. OECD and non-OECD energy-related carbon dioxide emissions, 1990-2040 151
Figure 9-2. Carbon dioxide emissions from energy consumption in the United States and China, 1990-2012 152
Figure 9-3. World energy-related carbon dioxide emissions by fuel type, 1990-2040 153
Figure 9-4. OECD and non-OECD energy-related carbon dioxide emissions by fuel type, 1990-2040 153
Figure 9-5. Average annual growth of energy-related carbon dioxide emissions in OECD economies with and without the U.S. Clean Power Plan (CPP), 2012-40 156
Figure 9-6. Average annual growth of energy-related carbon dioxide emissions in non-OECD economies, 2012-40 156
Figure 9-7. Increases in carbon dioxide emissions by fuel type in non-OECD regions with the highest absolute emissions growth, 2012-40 156
Figure 9-8. U.S. electricity generation by primary fuel in the AEO2015 Reference case, 1990-2040, and incremental energy savings in the AEO2015 Base Policy case, 1990-2040 157
Figure 9-9. OECD and non-OECD carbon intensity of energy supply, 1990-2040 160
Figure 9-10. OECD and non-OECD energy intensity, 1990-2040 160
Figure 9-11. OECD and non-OECD carbon intensity of economic output, 1990-2040 160
Table A1. World total primary energy consumption by region, Reference case, 2011-40 174
Table A2. World total energy consumption by region and fuel, Reference case, 2011-40 175
Table A3. World gross domestic product (GDP) by region expressed in purchasing power parity, Reference case, 2011-40 177
Table A4. World gross domestic product (GDP) by region expressed in market exchange rates, Reference case, 2011-40 178
Table A5. World liquids consumption by region, Reference case, 2011-40 179
Table A6. World natural gas consumption by region, Reference case, 2011-40 180
Table A7. World coal consumption by region, Reference case, 2011-40 181
Table A8. World nuclear energy consumption by region, Reference case, 2011-40 182
Table A9. World consumption of hydroelectricity and other renewable energy by region, Reference case, 2011-40 183
Table A10. World carbon dioxide emissions by region, Reference case, 2011-40 184
Table A11. World carbon dioxide emissions from liquids use by region, Reference case, 2011-40 185
Table A12. World carbon dioxide emissions from natural gas use by region, Reference case, 2011-40 186
Table A13. World carbon dioxide emissions from coal use by region, Reference case, 2011-40 187
Table A14. World population by region, Reference case, 2011-40 188
Table B1. World total primary energy consumption by region, High Economic Growth case, 2011-40 190
Table B2. World gross domestic product (GDP) by region expressed in purchasing power parity, High Economic Growth case, 2011-40 191
Table C1. World total primary energy consumption by region, Low Economic Growth case, 2011-40 193
Table C2. World gross domestic product (GDP) by region expressed in purchasing power parity, Low Economic Growth case, 2011-40 194
Table D1. World total primary energy consumption by region, High Oil Price case, 2011-40 196
Table D2. World gross domestic product (GDP) by region expressed in purchasing power parity, High Oil Price case, 2011-40 197
Table D3. World liquids consumption by region, High Oil Price case, 2011-40 198
Table E1. World total primary energy consumption by region, Low Oil Price case, 2011-40 200
Table E2. World gross domestic product (GDP) by region expressed in purchasing power parity, Low Oil Price case, 2011-40 201
Table E3. World liquids consumption by region, Low Oil Price case, 2011-40 202
Table F1. Total world delivered energy consumption by end-use sector and fuel, 2011-40 204
Table F2. Total OECD delivered energy consumption by end-use sector and fuel, 2011-40 205
Table F3. Delivered energy consumption in the United States by end-use sector and fuel, 2011-40 206
Table F4. Delivered energy consumption in Canada by end-use sector and fuel, 2011-40 207
Table F5. Delivered energy consumption in Mexico and Chile by end-use sector and fuel, 2011-40 208
Table F6. Delivered energy consumption in OECD Europe by end-use sector and fuel, 2011-40 209
Table F7. Delivered energy consumption in Japan by end-use sector and fuel, 2011-40 210
Table F8. Delivered energy consumption in South Korea by end-use sector and fuel, 2011-40 211
Table F9. Delivered energy consumption in Australia/New Zealand by end-use sector and fuel, 2011-40 212
Table F10. Total non-OECD delivered energy consumption by end-use sector and fuel, 2011-40 213
Table F11. Delivered energy consumption in Russia by end-use sector and fuel, 2011-40 214
Table F12. Delivered energy consumption in Other Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia by end-use sector and fuel, 2011-40 215
Table F13. Delivered energy consumption in China by end-use sector and fuel, 2011-40 216
Table F14. Delivered energy consumption in India by end-use sector and fuel, 2011-40 217
Table F15. Delivered energy consumption in Other Non-OECD Asia by end-use sector and fuel, 2011-40 218
Table F16. Delivered energy consumption in the Middle East by end-use sector and fuel, 2011-40 219
Table F17. Delivered energy consumption in Africa by end-use sector and fuel, 2011-40 220
Table F18. Delivered energy consumption in Brazil by end-use sector and fuel, 2011-40 221
Table F19. Delivered energy consumption in Other Non-OECD Americas by end-use sector and fuel, 2011-40 222
Table G1. World petroleum and other liquids production by region and country, Reference case, 2011-40 224
Table G2. World crude oila production by region and country, Reference case, 2011-40 225
Table G3. International other liquid fuelsa production by region and country, Reference case, 2011-40 226
Table G4. World petroleum and other liquids production by region and country, High Oil Price case, 2011-40 227
Table G5. World crude oila production by region and country, High Oil Price case, 2011-40 228
Table G6. World other liquid fuelsa production by region and country, High Oil Price case, 2011-40 229
Table G7. World petroleum and other liquids production by region and country, Low Oil Price case, 2011-40 230
Table G8. World crude oila production by region and country, Low Oil Price case, 2011-40 231
Table G9. World other liquid fuelsa production by region and country, Low Oil Price case, 2011-40 232
Table H1. World total installed generating capacity by region and country, 2011-40 234
Table H2. World installed liquids-fired generating capacity by region and country, 2011-40 235
Table H3. World installed natural-gas-fired generating capacity by region and country, 2011-40 236
Table H4. World installed coal-fired generating capacity by region and country, 2011-40 237
Table H5. World installed nuclear generating capacity by region and country, 2011-40 238
Table H6. World installed hydroelectric and other renewable generating capacity by region and country, 2011-40 239
Table H7. World installed hydroelectric generating capacity by region and country, 2011-40 240
Table H8. World installed wind-powered generating capacity by region and country, 2011-40 241
Table H9. World installed geothermal generating capacity by region and country, 2011-40 242
Table H10. World installed solar generating capacity by region and country, 2011-40 243
Table H11. World installed other renewable generating capacity by region and country, 2011-40 244
Table H12. World total net electricity generation by region and country, 2011-40 245
Table H13. World net liquids-fired electricity generation by region and country, 2011-40 246
Table H14. World net natural gas-fired electricity generation by region and country, 2011-40 247
Table H15. World net coal-fired electricity generation by region and country, 2011-40 248
Table H16. World net nuclear electricity generation by region and country, 2011-40 249
Table H17. World net hydroelectric and other renewable electricity generation by region and country, 2011-40 250
Table H18. World net hydroelectric electricity generation by region and country, 2011-40 251
Table H19. World net wind-powered electricity generation by region and country, 2011-40 252
Table H20. World net geothermal electricity generation by region and country, 2011-40 253
Table H21. World net solar electricity generation by region and country, 2011-40 254
Table H22. World net other renewable electricity generation by region and country, 2011-40 255
Table I1. World total natural gas production by region, Reference case, 2012-40 257
Table I2. World tight gas, shale gas and coalbed methane production by region, Reference case, 2012-40 258
Table I3. World other natural gas production by region, Reference case, 2012-40 259
Table I4. World net trade in natural gas by region, Reference case, 2012-40 260
Table J1. World carbon dioxide intensity of energy use by region, Reference case, 2011-40 262
Table J2. World energy intensity by region, Reference case, 2011-40 263
Table J3. World gross domestic product (GDP) per capita by region expressed in purchasing power parity, Reference case, 2011-40 264
Table J4. World population by region, Reference case, 2011-2040 265
Table K1. Comparison of IEO2016 and IEA world energy consumption growth rates by region, 2012-20 266
Table K2. Comparison of IEO2016 and IEA world energy consumption growth rates by energy source, 2012-20 267
Table K3. Comparison of IEO2016 and IEA world energy consumption growth rates by region, 2020-40 267
Table K4. Comparison of IEO2016 and IEA world energy consumption growth rates by energy source, 2020-40 268
Table K5. Total energy consumption in the IEO2016 and IEO2013 Reference cases, 2020 and 2040 269
Table K6. Energy consumption by energy source in the IEO2016 and IEO2013 Reference cases, 2020 and 2040 269
Figure M1. Map of the six basic country groupings 272