Contents
Forecast highlights 1
Petroleum and natural gas markets review 3
Crude oil 3
Petroleum products 7
Natural gas 10
Notable forecast changes 13
Short-Term Energy Outlook 15
West Texas intermediate (WTI) crude oil price 15
U.S. gasoline and crude oil prices 15
U.S. diesel fuel and crude oil prices 16
Henry hub natural gas price 16
U.S. natural gas prices 16
World liquid fuels production and consumption balance 17
Estimated historical unplanned OPEC crude oil production outages 17
Estimated historical unplanned non-OPEC liquid fuels production outages 17
World liquid fuels consumption 18
World liquid fuels consumption growth 18
World crude oil and liquid fuels production growth 18
Non-OPEC crude oil and liquid fuels production growth 19
World consumption and non-OPEC production growth 19
OPEC surplus crude oil production capacity 19
OECD commercial stocks of crude oil and other liquids 20
U.S. crude oil and liquid fuels production 20
U.S. commercial crude oil stocks 20
U.S. liquid fuels product supplied 21
U.S. gasoline and distillate inventories 21
U.S. natural gas consumption 21
U.S. natural gas production and imports 22
U.S. working natural gas in storage 22
U.S. coal consumption 22
U.S. coal production 23
U.S. electric power coal stocks 23
U.S. electricity consumption 23
U.S. residential electricity price 24
U.S. electricity generation by fuel, all sectors 24
U.S. renewable energy supply 24
U.S. annual energy expenditures 25
U.S. energy-related carbon dioxide emissions 25
U.S. total industrial production index 25
U.S. disposable income 26
U.S. summer cooling degree days 26
U.S. winter heating degree days 26
U.S. census regions and divisions 27
Appendix 51
Table WF01. Average Consumer Prices and Expenditures for Heating Fuels During the Winter 28
Table 1. U.S. Energy Markets Summary 30
Table 2. Energy Prices 31
Table 3a. International Petroleum and Other Liquids Production, Consumption, and Inventories 32
Table 3b. Non-OPEC Petroleum and Other Liquids Supply (million barrels per day) 33
Table 3c. OPEC Crude Oil (excluding condensates) Supply (million barrels per day) 34
Table 3d. World Petrioleum and Other Liquids Consumption (million barrels per day) 35
Table 4a. U.S. Petroleum and Other Liquids Supply, Consumption, and Inventories 36
Table 4b. U.S. Hydrocarbon Gas Liquids (HGL) and Petroleum Refinery Balances (million barrels per day, except inventories and utilization factor) 37
Table 4c. U.S. Regional Motor Gasoline Prices and Inventories 38
Table 5a. U.S. Natural Gas Supply, Consumption, and Inventories 39
Table 5b. U.S. Regional Natural Gas Prices (dollars per thousand cubic feet) 40
Table 6. U.S. Coal Supply, Consumption, and Inventories 41
Table 7a. U.S. Electricity Industry Overview 42
Table 7b. U.S. Regional Electricity Retail Sales (Million Kilowatthours per Day) 43
Table 7c. U.S. Regional Retail Electricity Prices (Cents per Kilowatthour 44
Table 7d. U.S. Regional Electricity Generation, All Sectors (Thousand megawatthours per day) 45
Table 7e. U.S. Regional Fuel Consumption for Electricity Generation, All Sectors 46
Table 8. U.S. Renewable Energy Consumption (Quadrillion Btu) 47
Table 9a. U.S. Macroeconomic Indicators and CO₂ Emissions 48
Table 9b. U.S. Regional Macroeconomic Data 49
Table 9c. U.S. Regional Weather Data 50
Figure 1. Crude oil front-month tutures prices 4
Figure 2. Cash flow and capital expenditures for select U.S. oil producers 5
Figure 3. Crude oil front-month-13th month futures price spread 6
Figure 4. Crude oil and inflation expectations 7
Figure 5. Historical RBOB futures prices and crack spread 8
Figure 6. New York Harbor-Gulf Coast conventional gasoline spot price differentials 9
Figure 7. Historical ULSD futures price and crack spread 10
Figure 8. Probability of the January 2017 ULSD contact exceeding different price levels at expiration 10
Figure 9. U.S. natural gas prices and storage 11
Figure 10. Northeast natural gas prices for Juanuary 2017 delivery 12
Figure 11. Probability of the January 2017 Henry Hub contract expiring above price levels 12
Table a1. Summary of Estimated Petroleum and Other Liquids Quantities 51
Table a2. Crude Oil and Petroleum Product Price Data 52