Title page
Contents
Executive Summary 6
Contextual Description of the NEMS Freight Module 11
Heavy-duty Truck 12
Rail 12
Domestic Marine 12
Issues with the Freight Transportation Module 14
Conceptual Solutions 16
Incremental Improvements 16
Econometric Approaches 16
Leveraging the FHWA Freight Analysis Framework (FAF) 17
Network Assignment Models 17
Industry Workshop Summary 19
Primary Discussion Topics 19
Decisions and Next Steps 21
Addressing Issues with Modeling Freight Demand in the NEMS Environment 22
NEMS Freight Transportation Module Process Overview 22
Availability and Use of Data: FAF as a NEMS Solution 29
Employing a Route Optimization Proxy to Improve Network Assignment 38
Disaggregating Census Divisions and TSIC Categories 46
Adjusting for Prices Using Commodity-Specific Inflation Factors 53
Modeling Multi-modal Goods Movement and Introducing a Dynamic Mode-Share Process 53
Accounting for Changes in Product Content and Industry Operations and the Effects of Time 56
Correcting NEMS Forecasts for Domestic Marine 57
Changes to other Data Inputs to NEMS 57
Conclusions 58
Appendix A: Workshop Participants 62
Appendix B: Additional Comparison Tables for FAF Versus CFS 63
Table 1. Conceptual Alternative Solutions 18
Table 2. EIA Commodity Crosswalk 24
Table 3. FAF Truck Shares (1997) 31
Table 4. FAF Rail Shares (1997) 31
Table 5. FAF Domestic Marine Shares (1997) 31
Table 6. FAF Truck Shares (2002) 32
Table 7. FAF Rail Shares (2002) 32
Table 8. FAF Domestic Marine Shares (2002) 32
Table 9. FAF Truck Shares (2007) 33
Table 10. FAF Rail Shares (2007) 33
Table 11. FAF Domestic Marine Shares (2007) 33
Table 12. 2007 Difference in Ton-mile Shares Using FAF Versus CFS, Truck 35
Table 13. 2007 Difference in Ton-mile Shares Using FAF Versus CFS, Rail 36
Table 14. 2007 Difference in Ton-mile Shares Using FAF Versus CFS, Domestic Marine 36
Table 15. 1997 FAF Truck Ton-Mile Shares Calculated by Roadway Shortest Path 41
Table 16. 1997 FAF Truck Ton-Mile Shares - Comparing Shortest Path Assignment to 50-50% Split 41
Table 17. 2002 FAF Truck Ton-Mile Shares Calculated by Roadway Shortest Path 41
Table 18. 2002 FAF Truck Ton-Mile Shares – Comparing Shortest Path Assignment to 50-50% Split 42
Table 19. 2007 FAF Truck Ton-Mile Shares Calculated by Roadway Shortest Path 42
Table 20. 2007 FAF Truck Ton-Mile Shares – Comparing Shortest Path Assignment to 50-50% Split 42
Table 21. 2007 Truck Ton-mile Shares Disaggregated by SCTG Code (with FAF Data and Shortest Path Network Assignment) 47
Table 22. 2007 Rail Ton-mile Shares Disaggregated by SCTG Code (with FAF Data and 50-50% Origin-Destination Split) 49
Table 23. 2007 Domestic Marine Ton-mile Shares Disaggregated by SCTG Code (with FAF Data and 50-50% Origin-Destination Split) 51
Table 24. Summary of Recommendations 59
Table 25. 1997 FAF Truck Share 64
Table 26. 1997 CFS Truck Share 64
Table 27. 1997 Truck FAF-CFS Percent Shares 64
Table 28. 1997 FAF Rail Share 65
Table 29. 1997 CFS Rail Share 65
Table 30. 1997 Rail FAF-CFS Percent Shares 65
Table 31. 2002 FAF Truck Share 66
Table 32. 2002 CFS Truck Share 66
Table 33. 2002 Truck FAF-CFS Percent Shares 66
Table 34. 2002 FAF Rail Share 67
Table 35. 2002 CFS Rail Share 67
Table 36. 2002 Rail FAF-CFS Percent Shares 67
Table 37. 2007 FAF Truck Share 68
Table 38. 2007 CFS Truck Share 68
Table 39. 2007 Truck FAF-CFS Percent Shares 68
Table 40. 2007 FAF Rail Share 69
Table 41. 2007 CFS Rail Share 69
Table 42. 2007 Rail FAF-CFS Percent Shares 69
Table 43. 2007 FAF Domestic Marine Share 70
Table 44. 2007 CFS Domestic Marine Share 70
Table 45. 2007 Domestic Marine FAF-CFS Percent Shares 70
Figure 1. NEMS Model Schematic 11
Figure 2. Census Divisions 23
Figure 3. NEMS Freight Module Diagram (Truck) 26
Figure 4. NEMS Freight Module Diagram (Rail) 27
Figure 5. NEMS Freight Module Diagram (Domestic Marine) 28
Figure 6. FAF Flow Matrix 29
Figure 7. Truck Flows by Census Division 34
Figure 8. Rail Flows by Census Division 34
Figure 9. Domestic Marine Flows by Census Division 35
Figure 10. Lower 48 States with Geographic Centroids Mapped with the Primary Road Network 39
Figure 11. Commodity Agnostic Shortest Path Estimate for all Alabama Origin/Destination Truck Flows 40
Figure 12. Shifts in Truck Ton-mile Share Percentages Using Network Shortest Path Network Assignment, 1997 43
Figure 13. Shifts in Truck Ton-mile Share Percentages Using Network Shortest Path Network Assignment, 2002 43
Figure 14. Shifts in Truck Ton-mile Share Percentages Using Network Shortest Path Network Assignment, 2007 44
Figure 15. Geographic Areas for FAF and CFS 45