Title page
Contents
Foreword 4
About This Report 13
PROJECTIONS 13
LIMITATIONS OF PROJECTION 13
Section 1. Elementary and Secondary Enrollment 14
INTRODUCTION 14
ACCURACY OF PROJECTIONS 14
NATIONAL 15
STATE AND REGIONAL (PUBLIC SCHOOL DATA) 17
RACE/ETHNICITY (PUBLIC SCHOOL DATA) 19
Section 2. Elementary and Secondary Teachers 20
INTRODUCTION 20
ACCURACY OF PROJECTIONS 20
TEACHERS IN ELEMENTARY AND SECONDARY SCHOOLS 21
Section 3. High School Graduates 24
INTRODUCTION 24
ACCURACY OF PROJECTIONS 24
NATIONAL 25
STATE AND REGIONAL (PUBLIC SCHOOL DATA) 26
RACE/ETHNICITY (PUBLIC SCHOOL DATA) 28
Section 4. Expenditures for Public Elementary and Secondary Education 29
INTRODUCTION 29
ACCURACY OF PROJECTIONS 29
CURRENT EXPENDITURES 30
Section 5. Enrollment in Degree-Granting Postsecondary Institutions 32
INTRODUCTION 32
ACCURACY OF PROJECTIONS 32
TOTAL ENROLLMENT 33
ENROLLMENT BY SELECTED CHARACTERISTICS AND CONTROL OF INSTITUTION 34
FIRST-TIME FRESHMEN ENROLLMENT 38
FULL-TIME-EQUIVALENT ENROLLMENT, BY CONTROL OF INSTITUTION 39
Section 6. Postsecondary Degrees Conferred 40
INTRODUCTION 40
ACCURACY OF PROJECTIONS 40
DEGREES, BY LEVEL OF DEGREE AND SEX OF RECIPIENT 41
Appendix A. Introduction to Projection Methodology 74
A.0. INTRODUCTION TO PROJECTION METHODOLOGY 74
A.1. ELEMENTARY AND SECONDARY ENROLLMENT 81
A.2. ELEMENTARY AND SECONDARY TEACHERS 91
A.3. HIGH SCHOOL GRADUATES 98
A.4. EXPENDITURES FOR PUBLIC ELEMENTARY AND SECONDARY EDUCATION 103
A.5. ENROLLMENT IN DEGREE-GRANTING POSTSECONDARY INSTITUTIONS 107
A.6. POSTSECONDARY DEGREES CONFERRED 127
Appendix B. Supplementary Tables 130
Appendix C. Data Sources 136
Appendix D. References 150
Appendix E. List of Abbreviations 151
Appendix F. Glossary 152
Table 1. Enrollment in elementary, secondary, and degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by level and control of institution: Selected years, 1869-70 through fall 2026 44
Table 2. Enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools, by level and grade: Selected years, fall 1980 through fall 2026 45
Table 3. Enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools, by region, state, and jurisdiction: Selected years, fall 1990 through fall 2026 46
Table 4. Public school enrollment in prekindergarten through grade 8, by region, state, and jurisdiction: Selected years, fall 1990 through fall 2026 48
Table 5. Public school enrollment in grades 9 through 12, by region, state, and jurisdiction: Selected years, fall 1990 through fall 2026 50
Table 6. Enrollment and percentage distribution of enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools, by race/ethnicity and region: Selected years, fall 1995 through fall 2026 52
Table 7. Enrollment and percentage distribution of enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools, by race/ethnicity and level of education: Fall 1999 through fall 2026 53
Table 8. Public and private elementary and secondary teachers, enrollment, pupil/teacher ratios, and new teacher hires: Selected years, fall 1955 throughfall 2026 55
Table 9. High school graduates, by sex and control of school: Selected years, 1869-70 through 2026-27 56
Table 10. Public high school graduates, by region, state, and jurisdiction: Selected years, 1980-81 through 2026-27 57
Table 11. Public high school graduates, by race/ethnicity: 1998-99 through 2026-27 59
Table 12. Current expenditures and current expenditures per pupil in public elementary and secondary schools: 1989-90 through 2026-27 60
Table 13. Total fall enrollment in degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by attendance status, sex of student, and control of institution: Selected years, 1947 through 2026 61
Table 14. Total fall enrollment in degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by level and control of institution, attendance status, and sex of student: Selected years, 1970 through 2026 63
Table 15. Total fall enrollment in degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by attendance status, sex, and age: Selected years, 1970 through 2026 65
Table 16. Total undergraduate fall enrollment in degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by attendance status, sex of student, and control and level of institution: Selected years, 1970 through 2026 66
Table 17. Total postbaccalaureate fall enrollment in degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by attendance status, sex of student, and control of institution: 1967 through 2026 68
Table 18. Total fall enrollment of first-time degree/certificate-seeking students in degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by attendance status, sex of student, and level and control of institution: 1955 through 2026 69
Table 19. Fall enrollment of U.S. residents in degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by race/ethnicity: Selected years, 1976 through 2026 70
Table 20. Full-time-equivalent fall enrollment in degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by control and level of institution: 1967 through 2026 71
Table 21. Degrees conferred by postsecondary institutions, by level of degree and sex of student: Selected years, 1869-70 through 2026-27 72
Figure 1. Actual and projected numbers for enrollment in elementary and secondary schools, by grade level: Fall 2001 through fall 2026 15
Figure 2. Actual and projected numbers for enrollment in elementary and secondary schools, by control of school: Fall 2001 through fall 2026 16
Figure 3. Projected percentage change in enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools, by state: Fall 2014 and fall 2026 17
Figure 4. Actual and projected numbers for enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools, by region: Fall 2008, fall 2014, and fall 2026 18
Figure 5. Actual and projected numbers for enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools, by race/ethnicity: Fall 2001 through fall 2026 19
Figure 6. Actual and projected numbers for elementary and secondary teachers, by control of school: Fall 2001 through fall 2026 21
Figure 7. Actual and projected numbers for the pupil/teacher ratios in elementary and secondary schools, by control of school: Fall 2001 through fall 2026 22
Figure 8. Actual and projected numbers for elementary and secondary new teacher hires, by control of school: Fall 1999, fall 2014, and fall 2026 23
Figure 9. Actual and projected numbers for high school graduates, by control of school: School years 2001-02 through 2026-27 25
Figure 10. Projected percentage change in the number of public high school graduates, by state: School years 2012-13 and 2026-27 26
Figure 11. Actual and projected numbers for public high school graduates, by region: School years 2008-09, 2012-13, and 2026-27 27
Figure 12. Actual and projected numbers for public high school graduates, by race/ethnicity: School years 2001-02 through 2026-27 28
Figure 13. Actual and projected current expenditures for public elementary and secondary schools (in constant 2015-16 dollars): School years 2001-02 through 2026-27 30
Figure 14. Actual and projected current expenditures per pupil in fall enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools (in constant 2015-16 dollars): School years 2001-02 through 2026-27 31
Figure 15. Actual and projected population numbers for 18-to 24-year-olds and 25-to 29-year-olds: 2001 through 2026 32
Figure 16. Actual and projected numbers for total enrollment in all degree-granting postsecondary institutions: Fall 2001 through fall 2026 33
Figure 17. Actual and projected numbers for total enrollment in all degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by age group: Fall 2001, fall 2015, and fall 2026 34
Figure 18. Actual and projected numbers for enrollment in all degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by sex: Fall 2001 through fall 2026 34
Figure 19. Actual and projected numbers for enrollment in all degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by attendance status: Fall 2001 through fall 2026 35
Figure 20. Actual and projected numbers for enrollment in all degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by level of enrollment: Fall 2001 through fall 2026 35
Figure 21. Actual and projected numbers for enrollment of U.S. residents in all degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by race/ethnicity: Fall 2001 through fall 2026 36
Figure 22. Actual and projected numbers for enrollment in all degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by control of institution: Fall 2001 through fall 2026 37
Figure 23. Actual and projected numbers for total first-time freshmen fall enrollment in all degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by sex: Fall 2001 through fall 2026 38
Figure 24. Actual and projected numbers for full-time-equivalent fall enrollment in degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by control: Fall 2001 through fall 2026 39
Figure 25. Actual and projected numbers for associate's degrees conferred by degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by sex of recipient: Academic years 2001-02 through 2026-27 41
Figure 26. Actual and projected numbers for bachelor's degrees conferred by degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by sex of recipient: Academic years 2001-02 through 2026-27 41
Figure 27. Actual and projected numbers for master's degrees conferred by degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by sex of recipient: Academic years 2001-02 through 2026-27 42
Figure 28. Actual and projected numbers for doctor's degrees conferred by degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by sex of recipient: Academic years 2001-02 through 2026-27 42
Appendix Text Tables
Table A. Mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) of enrollment projections, by lead time, control of school, and grade in elementary and secondary schools: MAPEs constructed using projections from Projections... 84
Table B. Mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) of enrollment projections, by lead time and race/ethnicity: MAPEs constructed using projections from Projections of Education Statistics to 1984-85 through... 86
Table C. Mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) of projections of number of public elementary and secondary school teachers, by lead time: MAPEs constructed using projections from Projections of Education... 94
Table D. Mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) of projections of high school graduates, by lead time and control of school: MAPEs constructed using projections from Projections of Education Statistics to 2000... 99
Table E. Mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) of projections of public high school graduates, by lead time and race/ethnicity: MAPEs constructed using projections from Projections of Education Statistics to 2000... 101
Table F. Mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) of projections for total and per pupil current expenditures for public elementary and secondary education, by lead time: MAPEs constructed using projections from... 105
Table G. Mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) of projected enrollment in degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by lead time, sex, and level of institution: MAPEs constructed using projections from Projections... 110
Table H. Mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) of projected enrollment in degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by lead time and race/ethnicity: MAPEs constructed using projections from Projections of Education... 112
Table I. Mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) of projected first-time freshmen enrollment in degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by lead time and sex: MAPEs constructed using projections from Projections... 113
Table J. Mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) of projected associate's and bachelor's degrees conferred by degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by lead time: MAPEs constructed using projections from Projections... 128
Table A-1. Summary of forecast assumptions to 2026 78
Table A-2. Mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs), by lead time for selected statistics in all elementary and secondary schools and degree-granting postsecondary institutions: MAPEs constructed using projections from... 79
Table A-3. Example of constructing mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) on fall enrollment in degree-granting institutions, part 1 80
Table A-4. Example of constructing mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) on fall enrollment in degree-granting institutions, part 2 80
Table A-5. Actual and projected national public school grade progression rates: Fall 2014, and fall 2015 through fall 2026 87
Table A-6. Actual and projected national enrollment rates in public schools, by grade level: Fall 2014, and fall 2015 through fall 2026 87
Table A-7. Mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) for projected prekindergarten-12 enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools, by lead time, region, and state: MAPEs constructed using projections from Projections... 88
Table A-8. Mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) for projected prekindergarten-8 enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools, by lead time, region, and state: MAPEs constructed using projections from Projections... 89
Table A-9. Mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) for projected grades 9-12 enrollment in public schools, by lead time, region, and state: MAPEs constructed using projections from Projections of Education Statistics... 90
Table A-10. Estimated equations and model statistics for public elementary and secondary teachers based on data from 1972 through 2014 96
Table A-11. Percentage distribution of full-time and part-time school teachers, by age, control of school, and teaching status: School year 2011-12 96
Table A-12. Percentage distribution of full-time and part-time newly hired teachers, by age and control of school: Selected school years, 1987-88 through 2011-12 96
Table A-13. Actual and projected continuation rates of full-time and part-time school teachers, by age and control of school: Selected school years, 1993-94 to 1994-95 through 2026-27 to 2027-28 97
Table A-14. Mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) for the projected number of high school graduates in public schools, by lead time, region, and state: MAPEs constructed using projections from Projections of Education... 102
Table A-15. Estimated equations and model statistics for current expenditures per pupil in fall enrollment for public elementary and secondary schools, and education revenue from state sources per capita based on data from... 106
Table A-16. Actual and projected enrollment rates of all students at degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by sex, attendance status, and age: Fall 2015, fall 2021, and fall 2026 114
Table A-17. Estimated equations and model statistics for full-time and part-time enrollment rates of males at degree-granting postsecondary institutions based on data from 2000 to 2015 115
Table A-18. Estimated equations and model statistics for full-time and part-time enrollment rates of females at degree-granting postsecondary institutions based on data from 2000 to 2015 116
Table A-19. Actual and projected percentages of full-time students at degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by sex, age group, student level, and level of institution: Fall 2015, and fall 2016 through fall 2026 117
Table A-20. Actual and projected percentages of part-time students at degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by sex, age group, student level, and level of institution: Fall 2015, and fall 2016 through fall 2026 118
Table A-21. Actual and projected enrollment in public degree-granting postsecondary institutions as a percentage of total postsecondary enrollment, by sex, attendance status, student level, and level of institution: Fall 2015... 119
Table A-22. Estimated equations and model statistics for full-time and part-time enrollment rates of White males at degree-granting postsecondary institutions based on data from 1980 to 2015 119
Table A-23. Estimated equations and model statistics for full-time and part-time enrollment rates of White females at degree-granting postsecondary institutions based on data from 1980 to 2015 120
Table A-24. Estimated equations and model statistics for full-time and part-time enrollment rates of Black males at degree-granting postsecondary institutions based on data from 1980 to 2015 121
Table A-25. Estimated equations and model statistics for full-time and part-time enrollment rates of Black females at degree-granting postsecondary institutions based on data from 1980 to 2015 122
Table A-26. Estimated equations and model statistics for full-time and part-time enrollment rates of Hispanic males at degree-granting postsecondary institutions based on data from 1980 to 2015 123
Table A-27. Estimated equations and model statistics for full-time and part-time enrollment rates of Hispanic females at degree-granting postsecondary institutions based on data from 1980 to 2015 124
Table A-28. Estimated equations and model statistics for full-time and part-time enrollment rates of Asian/Pacific Islander males at degree-granting postsecondary institutions based on data from 1989 to 2015 125
Table A-29. Estimated equations and model statistics for full-time and part-time enrollment rates of Asian/Pacific Islander females at degree-granting postsecondary institutions based on data from 1989 to 2015 126
Table A-30. Estimated equations and model statistics for degrees conferred, by degree type and sex based on data from 1970-71 to 2014-15 129
Table B-1. Actual and projected prekindergarten- and kindergarten-age populations, by age: 2001 through 2026 131
Table B-2. Actual and projected school-age populations, by selected ages: 2001 through 2026 132
Table B-3. Actual and projected college-age populations, by selected ages: 2001 through 2026 133
Table B-4. Actual and projected fall enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools, change in fall enrollment from previous year, resident population, and fall enrollment as a ratio of the population: School years 2001-02 through 2026-27 134
Table B-5. Actual and projected macroeconomic measures of the economy: School years 2001-02 through 2026-27 135