Title page
Contents
Glossary 5
1. Executive Summary 7
2. Introduction 15
2.1. Superfast Broadband programme 15
2.2. Evaluation questions 15
2.3. Methodology 17
2.4. Structure of this report 18
3. Programme Overview 20
3.1. Programme aims 21
3.2. Rationale 21
3.3. Expected impacts 21
3.4. Costs 23
3.5. Programme delivery 24
3.6. Changes in NGA availability 26
3.7. Changes in available download speeds 26
3.8. Take-up of subsidised coverage 27
3.9. Efficiency 28
4. Impact on Superfast Roll-out 29
4.1. Overview of Approach 30
4.2. Impact on NGA and superfast coverage by 2016 31
4.3. Impact on NGA and superfast coverage over time 32
4.4. Diversion of investment from grey and black postcodes 34
4.5. Effects by rural and urban areas 35
4.6. Value for Money 35
5. Economic Impact 37
5.1. Overview of Approach 38
5.2. Socio-economic characteristics 38
5.3. Local economic impacts 39
5.4. Role of firm relocations 40
5.5. Sector distribution of impacts 41
5.6. Unemployment and out of work benefits 42
5.7. Impacts in rural and urban areas 43
5.8. Effects by home nation 43
5.9. Effects of ultrafast and hyperfast broadband 43
6. Public and Social Value 44
6.1. Overview of approach 45
6.2. Attitudes and use of the internet 46
6.3. Communication with friends and family 47
6.4. Accessing entertainment and educational content 48
6.5. Managing everyday life 49
6.6. Strengthening local communities 50
6.7. Wellbeing outcomes 50
6.8. Impact of Superfast Broadband Programme on Wellbeing 51
7. Cost-Benefit Analysis 53
7.1. Overview of Approach 53
7.2. Costs 54
7.3. Economic benefits to 2016 55
7.4. Wellbeing benefits to 2016 57
7.5. Value for money to 2016 57
8. Conclusions 59
8.1. Key findings from the evaluation 59
8.2. Learning for future policy design and implementation 60
8.3. Evidence gaps and suggestions for future research 61
Table 2.1. BDUK Benefits Realisation Framework 16
Table 2.2. State Aid Evaluation Plan Questions 17
Table 4.1. Estimated impact of subsidised coverage on connectivity outcomes in 2016, rural and urban postcodes in the build plans of local schemes 35
Table 4.2. Estimated net cost per additional premises upgraded (present value in 2013 at 2016/17 prices) 36
Table 5.1. Overall economic impacts - postcodes receiving subsidised coverage 40
Table 6.1. Frequency of use of social networks 48
Table 6.2. Role of the internet in managing day to day life 50
Table 6.3. Wellbeing scores by speed available to participant 51
Table 6.4. Summary of wellbeing impact findings by age 52
Table 7.1. Estimated net cost to the public sector of premises upgraded by 2016 55
Table 7.2. Estimated BCRs - residential and non-residential premises upgraded 58
Figure 3.1. Superfast Broadband programme - outline logic model 23
Figure 3.2/Figure 3.1. Forecast delivery costs and income, 2013 to 2026 (2016/17 prices) 24
Figure 3.3/Figure 3.2. Number of premises receiving subsidised superfast (24Mbit/s) coverage 25
Figure 3.4/Figure 3.3. Changes in Next Generation Access coverage, 2012 to 2016 26
Figure 3.5/Figure 3.4. Average maximum available download speeds on postcodes receiving subsidised coverage before and after the upgrade 27
Figure 3.6/Figure 3.5. Take-up of subsidised coverage under Phase One and Phase Two 27
Figure 4.1. Estimates of additionality of NGA and 30Mbit/s coverage in 2016 32
Figure 4.2. NGA coverage on postcodes receiving subsidised coverage and a matched group of white postcodes, 2012 to 2016 33
Figure 4.3. Estimates of the additionality of subsidised coverage over time 34
Figure 5.1. Employment and turnover of local units benefitting from subsidised coverage, 2012 to 2016 39
Figure 6.1. Views on the internet and technology - upgraded and non-upgraded 46
Figure 6.2. Importance of speed and reliability of connection 47
Figure 6.3/Figure 6.2. Importance of the internet to accessing entertainment content 49