Title page
Contents
Ministerial Foreword 3
General Information 5
Executive Summary 7
1. Background 10
2. Policy proposal 20
3. Consolidated list of questions 25
4. Next steps 27
5. Privacy notice 28
Summary: Intervention and Options 30
Summary: Analysis & Evidence 32
Background 42
Policy objectives 53
Options appraisal 59
Risks to the policy 98
Monitoring and evaluation 99
Summary 101
Annex 1: Long list of options 104
Annex 2: Modelling approach 109
Table A. Summary of long list of options considered 56
Table B. Number of premises included in the New Builds model 61
Table C. Proportion of new build units by size of development 62
Table D. Proportion of new build units by telecoms connectivity 63
Table E. Thinkbroadband estimates of new build (all units) download speeds 64
Table F. Benchmarking the upgrade capex costs per premise passed (excluding connection costs), range of estimates by geotype shown in brackets 69
Table G. Technology of new build premises over 15 years 80
Table H. Social cost benefit analysis over 15 years relative to do nothing, constant 2016 prices 81
Table I. Business NPV over 15 years relative to do nothing, constant 2016 prices 82
Table J. Estimated annual net direct cost to businesses (EANDCB), constant 2016 prices 83
Table K. SaMBA considerations 84
Table L. Estimated annual impact on small and micro businesses, constant 2016 prices 87
Table M. Sensitivity analysis of the estimated annual impact on small and micro businesses, constant 2016 prices 87
Table N. Estimates of new additional dwellings in 2016-17 93
Table O. Sensitivity analysis of different house building levels (all benefits and relative to do nothing) 93
Table P. Sensitivity analysis of different cost estimates (all benefits and relative to do nothing) 94
Table Q. Sensitivity analysis of different cost assumptions (all benefits relative to the do nothing) 95
Table R. Sensitivity analysis of different optimism bias (all benefits relative to do nothing) 96
Table S. Sensitivity analysis of different take up rates (all benefits and relative to do nothing) 97
Table T. Sensitivity analysis of cost threshold for Option 3 (all benefits and relative to do nothing) 98
Figure 1. Broadband speeds by type of connection 42
Figure 2. Average actual UK fixed-line residential broadband speeds since November 2008 44
Figure 3. Percentage of households with internet access 44
Figure 4. Average download speed by connection type in 2017 49
Figure 5. Proposed policy design of partial FTTP coverage for new builds under cost cap 58
Figure 6. Assumed path of technology shares over time 65
Figure 7. Percentage of new build starts and firms by small and micro businesses 86
Figure 8. Percentage of new builds that could exceed the £3,000 cost cap in option 3 by density decile 91
Figure 9. Percentage of new builds that could exceed the £3,000 cost cap in option 3 by NUTS 1 region 92
Figure 10. Proposed policy design 102
Figure 11/Figure 12. New Builds model clustering 110