Title page
Contents
Foreword 4
About This Report 13
PROJECTIONS 13
LIMITATIONS OF PROJECTIONS 13
Section 1. Elementary and Secondary Enrollment 14
INTRODUCTION 14
ACCURACY OF PROJECTIONS 14
NATIONAL 15
STATE AND REGIONAL (PUBLIC SCHOOL DATA) 17
RACE/ETHNICITY (PUBLIC SCHOOL DATA) 19
Section 2. Elementary and Secondary Teachers 20
INTRODUCTION 20
ACCURACY OF PROJECTIONS 20
TEACHERS IN ELEMENTARY AND SECONDARY SCHOOLS 21
Section 3. High School Graduates 24
INTRODUCTION 24
ACCURACY OF PROJECTIONS 24
NATIONAL 25
STATE AND REGIONAL (PUBLIC SCHOOL DATA) 26
RACE/ETHNICITY (PUBLIC SCHOOL DATA) 28
Section 4. Expenditures for Public Elementary and Secondary Education 29
INTRODUCTION 29
ACCURACY OF PROJECTIONS 29
CURRENT EXPENDITURES 30
Section 5. Enrollment in Degree-Granting Postsecondary Institutions 32
INTRODUCTION 32
ACCURACY OF PROJECTIONS 32
TOTAL ENROLLMENT 33
ENROLLMENT BY SELECTED CHARACTERISTICS AND CONTROL OF INSTITUTION 34
FIRST-TIME FRESHMEN ENROLLMENT 38
FULL-TIME-EQUIVALENT ENROLLMENT, BY CONTROL OF INSTITUTION 39
Section 6. Postsecondary Degrees Conferred 40
INTRODUCTION 40
ACCURACY OF PROJECTIONS 40
DEGREES, BY LEVEL OF DEGREE AND SEX OF RECIPIENT 41
Appendix A. Introduction to Projection Methodology 74
A.0. INTRODUCTION TO PROJECTION METHODOLOGY 74
A.1. ELEMENTARY AND SECONDARY ENROLLMENT 81
A.2. ELEMENTARY AND SECONDARY TEACHERS 91
A.3. HIGH SCHOOL GRADUATES 99
A.4. EXPENDITURES FOR PUBLIC ELEMENTARY AND SECONDARY EDUCATION 104
A.5. ENROLLMENT IN DEGREE-GRANTING POSTSECONDARY INSTITUTIONS 108
A.6. POSTSECONDARY DEGREES CONFERRED 121
Appendix B. Supplementary Tables 123
Appendix C. Data Sources 129
Appendix D. References 144
Appendix E. List of Abbreviations 145
Appendix F. Glossary 146
Table 1. Enrollment in elementary, secondary, and degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by level and control of institution: Selected years, 1869-70 through fall 2027 44
Table 2. Enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools, by level and grade: Selected years, fall 1980 through fall 2027 45
Table 3. Enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools, by region, state, and jurisdiction: Selected years, fall 1990 through fall 2027 46
Table 4. Public school enrollment in prekindergarten through grade 8, by region, state, and jurisdiction: Selected years, fall 1990 through fall 2027 48
Table 5. Public school enrollment in grades 9 through 12, by region, state, and jurisdiction: Selected years, fall 1990 through fall 2027 50
Table 6. Enrollment and percentage distribution of enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools, by race/ethnicity and region: Selected years, fall 1995 through fall 2027 52
Table 7. Enrollment and percentage distribution of enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools, by race/ethnicity and level of education: Fall 1999 through fall 2027 53
Table 8. Public and private elementary and secondary teachers, enrollment, pupil/teacher ratios, and new teacher hires: Selected years, fall 1955 through fall 2027 55
Table 9. High school graduates, by sex and control of school: Selected years, 1869-70 through 2027-28 56
Table 10. Public high school graduates, by region, state, and jurisdiction: Selected years, 1980-81 through 2027-28 57
Table 11. Public high school graduates, by race/ethnicity: 1998-99 through 2027-28 59
Table 12. Current expenditures and current expenditures per pupil in public elementary and secondary schools: 1989-90 through 2027-28 60
Table 13. Total fall enrollment in degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by attendance status, sex of student, and control of institution: Selected years, 1947 through 2027 61
Table 14. Total fall enrollment in degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by level and control of institution, attendance status, and sex of student: Selected years, 1970 through 2027 63
Table 15. Total fall enrollment in degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by attendance status, sex, and age: Selected years, 1970 through 2027 65
Table 16. Total undergraduate fall enrollment in degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by attendance status, sex of student, and control and level of institution: Selected years, 1970 through 2027 66
Table 17. Total postbaccalaureate fall enrollment in degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by attendance status, sex of student, and control of institution: 1970 through 2027 68
Table 18. Total fall enrollment of first-time degree/certificate-seeking students in degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by attendance status, sex of student, and level and control of institution: 1955 through 2027 69
Table 19. Fall enrollment of U.S. residents in degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by race/ethnicity: Selected years, 1976 through 2027 70
Table 20. Full-time-equivalent fall enrollment in degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by control and level of institution: 1967 through 2027 71
Table 21. Degrees conferred by postsecondary institutions, by level of degree and sex of student: Selected years, 1869-70 through 2027-28 72
Figure 1. Actual and projected numbers for enrollment in elementary and secondary schools, by grade level: Fall 2002 through fall 2027 15
Figure 2. Actual and projected numbers for enrollment in elementary and secondary schools, by control of school: Fall 2002 through fall 2027 16
Figure 3. Projected percentage change in enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools, by state: Fall 2015 and fall 2027 17
Figure 4. Actual and projected numbers for enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools, by region: Fall 2009, fall 2015, and fall 2027 18
Figure 5. Actual and projected numbers for enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools, by race/ethnicity: Fall 2002 through fall 2027 19
Figure 6. Actual and projected numbers for elementary and secondary teachers, by control of school: Fall 2002 through fall 2027 21
Figure 7. Actual and projected numbers for the pupil/teacher ratios in elementary and secondary schools, by control of school: Fall 2002 through fall 2027 22
Figure 8. Actual and projected numbers for elementary and secondary new teacher hires, by control of school: Fall 2003, fall 2015, and fall 2027 23
Figure 9. Actual and projected numbers for high school graduates, by control of school: School years 2002-03 through 2027-28 25
Figure 10. Projected percentage change in the number of public high school graduates, by state: School years 2012-13 and 2027-28 26
Figure 11. Actual and projected numbers for public high school graduates, by region: School years 2009-10, 2012-13, and 2027-28 27
Figure 12. Actual and projected numbers for public high school graduates, by race/ethnicity: School years 2002-03 through 2027-28 28
Figure 13. Actual and projected current expenditures for public elementary and secondary schools (in constant 2016-17 dollars): School years 2002-03 through 2027-28 30
Figure 14. Actual and projected current expenditures per pupil in fall enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools (in constant 2016-17 dollars): School years 2002-03 through 2027-28 31
Figure 15. Actual and projected population numbers for 18-to 24-year-olds and 25- to 29-year-olds: 2002 through 2027 32
Figure 16. Actual and projected numbers for total enrollment in all degree-granting postsecondary institutions: Fall 2002 through fall 2027 33
Figure 17. Actual and projected numbers for total enrollment in all degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by age group: Fall 2000, fall 2016, and fall 2027 34
Figure 18. Actual and projected numbers for enrollment in all degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by sex: Fall 2002 through fall 2027 34
Figure 19. Actual and projected numbers for enrollment in all degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by attendance status: Fall 2002 through fall 2027 35
Figure 20. Actual and projected numbers for enrollment in all degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by level of enrollment: Fall 2002 through fall 2027 35
Figure 21. Actual and projected numbers for enrollment of U.S. residents in all degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by race/ethnicity: Fall 2002 through fall 2027 36
Figure 22. Actual and projected numbers for enrollment in all degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by control of institution: Fall 2002 through fall 2027 37
Figure 23. Actual and projected numbers for total first-time degree/certificate-seeking students in degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by sex: Fall 2002 through fall 2027 38
Figure 24. Actual and projected numbers for full-time-equivalent fall enrollment in degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by control: Fall 2002 through fall 2027 39
Figure 25. Actual and projected numbers for associate's degrees conferred by degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by sex of recipient: Academic years 2002-03 through 2027-28 41
Figure 26. Actual and projected numbers for bachelor's degrees conferred by degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by sex of recipient: Academic years 2002-03 through 2027-28 41
Figure 27. Actual and projected numbers for master's degrees conferred by degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by sex of recipient: Academic years 2002-03 through 2027-28 42
Figure 28. Actual and projected numbers for doctor's degrees conferred by degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by sex of recipient: Academic years 2002-03 through 2027-28 42
Table A-1. Summary of forecast assumptions to 2027 79
Table A-2. Mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs), by lead time for selected statistics in all elementary and secondary schools: MAPEs constructed using projections from Projections of Education Statistics to 1984-85... 79
Table A-3. Example of constructing mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) on fall enrollment in degree-granting institutions, part 1 80
Table A-4. Example of constructing mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) on fall enrollment in degree-granting institutions, part 2 80
Table A-5. Actual and projected national public school grade progression rates: Fall 2015, and fall 2016 through fall 2027 87
Table A-6. Actual and projected national enrollment rates in public schools, by grade level: Fall 2015, and fall 2016 through fall 2027 87
Table A-7. Mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) for projected prekindergarten-12 enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools, by lead time, region, and state: MAPEs constructed using projections from Projections... 88
Table A-8. Mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) for projected prekindergarten-8 enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools, by lead time, region, and state: MAPEs constructed using projections from Projections... 89
Table A-9. Mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) for projected grades 9-12 enrollment in public schools, by lead time, region, and state: MAPEs constructed using projections from Projections of Education Statistics to 1984-85... 90
Table A-10. Estimated equations and model statistics for public elementary and secondary teachers based on data from 1972 through 2015 97
Table A-11. Percentage distribution of full-time and part-time school teachers, by age, control of school, and teaching status: School years 2011-12 and 2015-16 97
Table A-12. Percentage distribution of full-time and part-time newly hired teachers, by age and control of school: Selected school years, 1987-88 through 2015-16 97
Table A-13. Actual and projected continuation rates of full-time and part-time school teachers, by age and control of school: Selected school years, 1993-94 to 1994-95 through 2027-28 to 2028-29 98
Table A-14. Mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) for the projected number of high school graduates in public schools, by lead time, region, and state: MAPEs constructed using projections from Projections of Education Statistics... 103
Table A-15. Estimated equations and model statistics for current expenditures per pupil in fall enrollment for public elementary and secondary schools, and education revenue from state sources per capita based on data from 1973-74... 107
Table A-16. Actual and projected numbers for enrollment rates of all students at degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by sex, attendance status, and age: Fall 2016, fall 2022, and fall 2027 114
Table A-17. Actual and projected percentages of full-time students at degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by sex, age group, student level, and level of institution: Fall 2016, and fall 2017 through fall 2027 115
Table A-18. Actual and projected percentages of part-time students at degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by sex, age group, student level, and level of institution: Fall 2016, and fall 2017 through fall 2027 116
Table A-19. Actual and projected enrollment in public degree-granting postsecondary institutions as a percentage of total postsecondary enrollment, by sex, attendance status, student level, and level of institution: Fall 2016, and fall 2017... 116
Table A-20. Estimated equations and model statistics for full-time and part-time enrollment rates of White males at degree-granting postsecondary institutions based on data from 1980 to 2016 117
Table A-21. Estimated equations and model statistics for full-time and part-time enrollment rates of White females at degree-granting postsecondary institutions based on data from 1980 to 2016 117
Table A-22. Estimated equations and model statistics for full-time and part-time enrollment rates of Black males at degree-granting postsecondary institutions based on data from 1980 to 2016 118
Table A-23. Estimated equations and model statistics for full-time and part-time enrollment rates of Black females at degree-granting postsecondary institutions based on data from 1980 to 2016 118
Table A-24. Estimated equations and model statistics for full-time and part-time enrollment rates of Hispanic males at degree-granting postsecondary institutions based on data from 1980 to 2016 119
Table A-25. Estimated equations and model statistics for full-time and part-time enrollment rates of Hispanic females at degree-granting postsecondary institutions based on data from 1980 to 2016 119
Table A-26. Estimated equations and model statistics for full-time and part-time enrollment rates of Asian/Pacific Islander males at degree-granting postsecondary institutions based on data from 1989 to 2016 120
Table A-27. Estimated equations and model statistics for full-time and part-time enrollment rates of Asian/Pacific Islander females at degree-granting postsecondary institutions based on data from 1989 to 2016 120
Table B-1. Actual and projected prekindergarten- and kindergarten-age populations, by age: 2002 through 2027 124
Table B-2. Actual and projected school-age populations, by selected ages: 2002 through 2027 125
Table B-3. Actual and projected college-age populations, by selected ages: 2002 through 2027 126
Table B-4. Actual and projected fall enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools, change in fall enrollment from previous year, resident population, and fall enrollment as a ratio of the population: School years 2002-2003... 127
Table B-5. Actual and projected macroeconomic measures of the economy: School years 2002-2003 through 2027-28 128
Appendix Text Tables
Table A. Mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) of enrollment projections, by lead time, control of school, and grade in elementary and secondary schools: MAPEs constructed using projections from Projections of Education Statistics... 84
Table B. Mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) of enrollment projections, by lead time and race/ethnicity: MAPEs constructed using projections from Projections of Education Statistics to 1984-85 through Projections of Education... 86
Table C. Mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) of projections of number of public and private elementary and secondary school teachers, by lead time: MAPEs constructed using projections from Projections of Education Statistics... 94
Table D. Mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) of projections of high school graduates, by lead time and control of school: MAPEs constructed using projections from Projections of Education Statistics to 2000 through Projections... 100
Table E. Mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) of projections of public high school graduates, by lead time and race/ethnicity: MAPEs constructed using projections from Projections of Education Statistics to 2000 through Projections... 102
Table F. Mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) of projections for total and per pupil current expenditures for public elementary and secondary education, by lead time: MAPEs constructed using projections from Projections of Education... 106