Title page
Contents
KEY FINDINGS 4
1. HOW DO 9TH-GRADERS' AND THEIR PARENTS' ESTIMATES OF PUBLIC 4-YEAR TUITION AND FEES DIFFER FROM THE ACTUAL AVERAGE TUITION AND FEES OF PUBLIC 4-YEAR INSTITUTIONS IN THEIR STATE? DO STUDENTS' AND PARENTS' ESTIMATES... 5
2. HOW UNCERTAIN ARE 9TH-GRADERS AND THEIR PARENTS ABOUT THEIR ABILITY TO ESTIMATE COLLEGE TUITION AND FEES, AND HOW DOES THEIR LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 2 YEARS? 9
3. WHAT ARE 9TH GRADERS' PERCEPTIONS OF COLLEGE AFFORDABILITY AND THEIR FUTURE COLLEGE-GOING PLANS? 11
FIND OUT MORE 14
REFERENCES 21
APPENDIX A. DATA TABLES 23
APPENDIX B. STANDARD ERROR TABLES 27
RUN YOUR OWN ANALYSIS WITH DATALAB 32
Table 1. 9TH-GRADERS' AND PARENTS' TUITION ESTIMATES, ACTUAL AVERAGE TUITION, AND CONFIDENCE, BY STATE Students' and parents' estimates of the cost of 1 year of tuition and mandatory fees at a... 8
Figure 1. DISTRIBUTION OF 9TH-GRADERS' OVER- OR UNDERESTIMATION OF TUITION COSTS BY RACE/ETHNICITY Percentage distribution of 9th-graders who over- or underestimated the cost of 1 year of... 5
Figure 2. DIFFERENCE BETWEEN 9TH-GRADERS' ESTIMATES AND ACTUAL COST OF COLLEGE Frequency of difference between 9th-graders' estimates and actual cost of 1 year of tuition and mandatory fees... 6
Figure 3. DISTRIBUTION OF 9TH-GRADERS' OVER- OR UNDERESTIMATES OF TUITION COSTS BY SOCIOECONOMIC STATUS Percentage distribution of 9th-graders who over- or underestimated the cost of 1... 7
Figure 4. CONFIDENCE IN ESTIMATED TUITION COST BY SOCIOECONOMIC STATUS Percentage distribution of 9th-graders' and their parents' level of confidence in their estimates of the cost of 1 year of... 9
Figure 5. STUDENT UNCERTAINTY ABOUT COLLEGE TUITION COSTS Percentage of students who were not at all confident in their estimate of the cost of 1 year of tuition and mandatory fees at a public... 10
Figure 6. STUDENT-ESTIMATED AND ACTUAL COLLEGE TUITION DIFFERENCES Mean difference between students' 9th- and 11th-grade estimates of the cost of 1 year of tuition and mandatory fees at... 11
Figure 7. STUDENTS' PERCEPTIONS OF COLLEGE AFFORDABILITY Percentage distribution of students' agreement that college is affordable, by student grade level: 2009-10 and 2011-12 12
Figure 8. STUDENTS' COLLEGE ENROLLMENT PLANS Percentage distribution of students' postsecondary education plans for the first year after high school, by student grade level: 2009-10 and 2013 12
Figure 9. STUDENTS' COLLEGE PLANS BY PERCEPTIONS OF COLLEGE AFFORDABILITY Percentage distribution of students' 2013 plans for the first year after high school, by their perceptions of... 13
Exhibits
Exhibit 1. Characteristics and summary statistics for HSLS:09 15
Exhibit 2. Response rates and summary statistics for nonresponse bias analyses, by HSLS:09 analytic weight 18
Exhibit 3. Summary of item-level nonresponse bias analysis results 19
Table A-1. Estimates for figure 1: DISTRIBUTION OF 9TH-GRADERS' OVER- OR UNDERESTIMATION OF TUITION COSTS BY RACE/ETHNICITY Percentage distribution of 9th-graders who over- or... 23
Table A-2. Estimates for figure 2: DIFFERENCE BETWEEN 9TH-GRADERS' ESTIMATES AND ACTUAL COST OF COLLEGE Frequency of difference between 9th-graders' estimates and actual cost of... 24
Table A-3. Estimates for figure 3: DISTRIBUTION OF 9TH-GRADERS' OVER- OR UNDERESTIMATES OF TUITION COSTS BY SOCIOECONOMIC STATUS Percentage distribution of 9th-graders who... 25
Table A-4. Estimates for figure 4: CONFIDENCE IN ESTIMATED TUITION COST BY SOCIOECONOMIC STATUS Percentage distribution of 9th-graders' and their parents' level of confidence in their... 25
Table A-5. Estimates for figure 5: STUDENT UNCERTAINTY ABOUT COLLEGE TUITION COSTS Percentage of students who were not at all confident in their estimate of the cost of 1 year of... 25
Table A-6. Estimates for figure 6: STUDENT-ESTIMATED AND ACTUAL COLLEGE TUITION DIFFERENCES Mean difference between students' 9th- and 11th-grade estimates of the cost of 1 year... 26
Table A-7. Estimates for figure 7: STUDENTS' PERCEPTIONS OF COLLEGE AFFORDABILITY Percentage distribution of students' agreement that college is affordable, by student grade... 26
Table A-8. Estimates for figure 8: STUDENTS' COLLEGE ENROLLMENT PLANS Percentage distribution of students' postsecondary education plans for the first year after high school, by... 26
Table A-9. Estimates for figure 9: STUDENTS' COLLEGE PLANS BY PERCEPTIONS OF COLLEGE AFFORDABILITY Percentage distribution of students' 2013 plans for the first year after high... 26
Table B-1. Standard errors for table A-1 and figure 1: DISTRIBUTION OF 9TH-GRADERS' OVER- OR UNDERESTIMATION OF TUITION COSTS BY RACE/ETHNICITY Percentage distribution of... 27
Table B-2. Standard errors for table A-2 and figure 2: DIFFERENCE BETWEEN 9TH-GRADERS' ESTIMATES AND ACTUAL COST OF COLLEGE Frequency of difference between 9th-graders' estimates... 28
Table B-3. Standard errors for table A-3 and figure 3: DISTRIBUTION OF 9TH-GRADERS' OVER- OR UNDERESTIMATES OF TUITION COSTS BY SOCIOECONOMIC STATUS Percentage distribution... 29
Table B-4. Standard errors for table A-4 and figure 4: CONFIDENCE IN ESTIMATED TUITION COST BY SOCIOECONOMIC STATUS Percentage distribution of 9th-graders' and their parents' level... 29
Table B-5. Standard errors for table A-5 and figure 5: STUDENT UNCERTAINTY ABOUT COLLEGE TUITION COSTS Percentage of students who were not at all confident in their estimate of the... 29
Table B-6. Standard errors for table A-6 and figure 6: STUDENT-ESTIMATED AND ACTUAL COLLEGE TUITION DIFFERENCES Mean difference between students' 9th- and 11th-grade... 30
Table B-7. Standard errors for table A-7 and figure 7: STUDENTS' PERCEPTIONS OF COLLEGE AFFORDABILITY Percentage distribution of students' agreement that college is affordable, by... 30
Table B-8. Standard errors for table A-8 and figure 8: STUDENTS' COLLEGE ENROLLMENT PLANS Percentage distribution of students' postsecondary education plans for the first year after... 30
Table B-9. Standard errors for table A-9 and figure 9: STUDENTS' COLLEGE PLANS BY PERCEPTIONS OF COLLEGE AFFORDABILITY Percentage distribution of students' 2013 plans for... 30
Table B-10. Standard errors for table 1. 9TH-GRADERS' AND PARENTS' TUITION ESTIMATES, ACTUAL AVERAGE TUITION, AND CONFIDENCE, BY STATE Students' and parents' estimates... 31