Contents
Why this study? 1
Research questions 2
Findings 6
Implications 13
References 14
Appendix A. Methods 17
Appendix B. Other analyses 33
Table 1. Enrollment in Michigan public schools, total and by grade level and subgroup of disadvantaged students, 2013/14-2017/18 6
Figure 1. Conceptual approach for examining teacher demand and supply 4
Figure 2. Enrollment among subgroups of disadvantaged students increased in rural and suburban districts in Michigan between 2013/14 and 2017/18 7
Figure 3. The size of the Michigan teacher workforce declined between 2013/14 and 2017/18 8
Figure 4. As a percentage of Michigan's active teacher supply between 2013/14 and 2017/18, newly certified teachers and teachers retained in the same district from the previous year declined,... 8
Figure 5. The number of newly certified active teachers from in-state traditional teacher preparation programs in Michigan declined between 2013/14 and 2017/18 9
Figure 6. The number of people who obtained an initial certificate in Michigan declined every year between 2011/12 and 2015/16, but the percentage who entered into teaching in a Michigan public... 10
Figure 7. The total number of substitute permits in Michigan public schools declined between 2013/14 and 2015/16 but increased between 2015/16 and 2017/18, while the percentage of long-term... 11
Figure 8. Total enrollment and student-teacher ratios in Michigan public schools are projected to decline between 2018/19 and 2022/23 12
Figure 9. The total active teacher supply in Michigan public schools is projected to meet demand between 2018/19 and 2022/23 12
Boxes
Box 1. Key terms 3
Box 2. Data sources, sample, methods, and limitations 4
Table A1. Data used to answer research questions 19
Table A2. Variables included in regression-based projection models 26
Table A3. Average percentage errors and mean absolute percentage errors of projections produced in the study 30
Table B1. Total enrollment in Michigan public schools, by region, 2013/14-2017/18 33
Table B2. English learner student enrollment in Michigan public schools, by region, 2013/14-2017/18 33
Table B3. Enrollment of students in special education in Michigan public schools, by region, 2013/14-2017/18 34
Table B4. Enrollment of students eligible for the national school lunch program in Michigan public schools, by region, 2013/14-2017/18 34
Table B5. Enrollment in Michigan public schools, by district locale and subgroup of disadvantaged students, 2013/14-2017/18 35
Table B6. Enrollment in Michigan public schools, by district average teacher salary and subgroup of disadvantaged students, 2013/14-2016/17 36
Table B7. Student-teacher ratios in Michigan public schools, by region of the state, district locale, and district average teacher salary, 2013/14-2017/18 37
Table B8. Full-time equivalent teachers in Michigan public schools, by subject area, 2013/14-2017/18 38
Table B9. Percentage of teachers retained in the same district from the previous year, by subject area, 2013/14-2017/18 39
Table B10. Percentage of teachers who transferred from another Michigan district, by subject area, 2013/14-2017/18 40
Table B11. Percentage of newly certified teachers, by subject area, 2013/14-2017/18 41
Table B12. Percentage of other entrants, by subject area, 2013/14-2017/18 42
Table B13. Percentage of teachers retained in the same district from the previous year, by region, 2013/14-2017/18 43
Table B14. Percentage of teachers who transferred from other Michigan districts, by region, 2013/14-2017/18 43
Table B15. Percentage of newly certified teachers, by region, 2013/14-2017/18 44
Table B16. Percentage of other entrants, by region, 2013/14-2017/18 44
Table B17. Percentage of teachers from different supply sources, by district locale, 2013/14-2017/18 45
Table B18. Percentage of teachers from different supply sources, by district average teacher salary, 2013/14-2016/17 46
Table B19. Number of permits issued to Michigan schools, by region, district locale, and district average teacher salary, 2013/14-2017/18 47
Table B20. Number of permits issued to Michigan schools, by permit type, 2013/14-2017/18 48
Table B21. Number of permits issued to Michigan schools by subject area and permits issued to Michigan schools as a percentage of total teacher count in each subject area, 2013/14-2017/18 49
Table B22. Historical and projected enrollment by region, 2013/14-2022/23 50
Table B23. Historical and projected enrollment by district locale, 2013/14-2022/23 51
Table B24. Historical and projected enrollment by level of district average teacher salary, 2013/14-2022/23 51
Table B25. Projected teacher demand and active teacher supply in terms of full-time equivalent teachers, by region, 2018/19-2022/23 52
Table B26. Projected teacher demand and active teacher supply in terms of full-time equivalent teachers, by district locale, 2018/19-2022/23 54
Table B27. Projected teacher demand and active teacher supply in terms of full-time equivalent teachers, by district average teacher salary level, 2018/19-2022/23 55
Table B28. Projected teacher demand and active teacher supply in terms of full-time equivalent teachers, by subject area, 2018/19-2022/23 56
Appendix Maps
Map A1. State of Michigan prosperity regions 22