Title page
Contents
Foreword and Acknowledgements 3
Introduction 4
Part 1: Emerging Evidence on COVID-19 and School Closures 5
Part 2: Key Informant Interviews 15
Part 3: Agent-Based Model Predictions 24
Appendix A: Methodology for Stakeholder Interviews 37
Appendix B: Agent-based Model Methods and Assumptions 42
References 53
About the authors 62
Table 1. Inputs for the characteristics of students, teachers, and support staff 46
Table 2. Inputs for the transmission probabilities 47
Table 3. Input parameters for sensitivity analyses S1-S12 48
Table 4. Sensitivity analysis of the relative time to the first five infections in elementary school 51
Table 5. Sensitivity analysis of the relative time to the first five infections in high school 52
Figure 1. The relative time from school start to the first five infections among elementary school students and staff for Scenarios A (Baseline), B, and E-G 30
Figure 2. The percentage of COVID-19 infections by transmission mode for Scenarios A, B, and E-G for the first five infections among elementary school students and staff 31
Figure 3. The relative time from school start to the fifth COVID-19 infection among high school students and staff for Scenarios A-G (Scenario A is Baseline) 33
Figure 4. The percentage of COVID-19 infections by transmission mode for Scenarios A-G for the first five infections among high school students and staff 34
Figure 5. Illustration of a potential contact network for a K-5 school 43
Figure 6. Structure of model, including stages of care and possible transition pathways between stages 44